Newly-Extended Rizzo Crushing Upper-Half Pitches

Anthony Rizzo is just 23 years old, but he has already beaten cancer and been traded twice. Learning to handle middle and high pitches, then, has been a cakewalk by comparison. Rizzo's staggering improvement against stuff thrown above the belt is a major reason why the Cubs felt comfortable locking him up with a seven-year, $41 contract extension, with two club options that could make it a nine-year, $73 million pact.

During his rookie year with the Padres in 2011, Rizzo's long, uppercut swing produced little more than wind power against pitches thrown in the upper half of the strike zone. The 6-foot-3, 240 pound prospect hit like a banjo-strumming middle infielder, with an upper-half slugging percentage (.217) that was over 200 points below the major league average (.425).

Rizzo's slugging percentage vs. upper-half pitches, 2011

In 2012, Rizzo made significant progress in solving his above-the-belt troubles. He cut his miss rate against upper-half pitches from about 32% to 13%, and he raised his slugging percentage to right around the league average (.415).

Rizzo's slugging percentage vs. upper-half pitches, 2012

Rizzo is making plenty of contact again on upper-half pitches this season (14% miss rate), but it's much louder contact. He's slugging .661 versus above-the-belt pitches, and his six homers on upper-half pitches already triples his 2012 total (two).

Rizzo's slugging percentage vs. upper-half pitches, 2013

Just two years after ranking in the bottom 20 among MLB hitters in upper-half slugging percentage, Anthony Rizzo now keeps company with the likes of Bryce Harper, Carlos Santana and Chris Davis in the top 20:

Highest slugging percentage vs. upper-half pitches, 2013

Rizzo's progress against middle and high pitches suggests that his new deal could be a bargain for the Cubs, and so do his career comps. Rizzo has a 122 OPS+ in 532 plate appearances during his age 22-23 seasons, a mark similar to those posted by first basemen like Willie McCovey, Keith Hernandez and Kent Hrbek at the same age.

It remains to be seen if Rizzo can match Stretch's feats of strength or get on base like Hernandez (to say nothing of growing such an awesome 'stache), but he's off to a great start.

Carlos Gomez Finds Power Stroke, Cashes In

Carlos Gomez is now a threat at the plate, too, thanks to improvements against breaking pitches.At 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds, Carlos Gomez has always looked like a power hitter. Yet the former Mets prospect, the centerpiece of the 2008 Johan Santana swap, slugged under .400 in the minor leagues and rarely punched the ball out of the infield during his early twenties with New York, Minnesota and Milwaukee. Gomez finally added power to his Gold Glove-caliber defense last season, and the Brewers have now rewarded him with a four-year, $28.3 million contract extension. GM Doug Melvin thinks the 27-year-old Gomez is just getting started:

"He has always had the physical skills, and his recent performance has given us the confidence that he will take the next step in becoming one of the top center fielders in the game," Melvin said. "His energy, speed and aggressive style of play is a perfect fit for Ron Roenicke's style of managing." (Associated Press)

Gomez's home run total has spiked from just five in 2010 to eight in 2011 and 19 last year. His slugging percentage has climbed 100-plus points over the same time frame, from .357 to .463. With those 19 bombs and 37 stolen bases, Gomez joined Ryan Braun, Mike Trout, B.J. Upton and Jimmy Rollins in the 15 homer, 30 SB club.

Gomez has emerged as a power threat by making huge strides against curveballs and sliders. Once a liability when pitchers tossed him a breaking ball, Gomez now makes them pay.

Back in 2010, Gomez was a banjo hitter versus curves and sliders. He often chopped breaking pitches into the turf (his 57% ground ball rate on curves and sliders was way above the 45% MLB average), and he had all of two extra-base knocks the entire year:

Gomez's slugging percentage vs. curveballs and sliders, 2010

Gomez slugged .200 against breaking balls, about 150 points below the MLB average and the sixth-worst mark among hitters seeing at least 300 curves and sliders that season. In 2011, Gomez made some strides. He put the ball in the air more often (47% ground ball rate vs. breaking pitches) and made louder contact, particularly on the edges of the strike zone:

Gomez's slugging percentage vs. curveballs and sliders, 2011

 

Gomez slugged .385 vs. curves and sliders. Last year, he progressed from a so-so breaking ball hitter to a slugger. Gomez's ground ball rate dropped another tick (46%) and he pulverized curves and sliders thrown down and inside:

Gomez's slugging percentage vs. curveballs and sliders, 2012

 

With a .461 slugging percentage against curves and sliders, Gomez ranked third behind Josh Hamilton (.563) and Mike Trout (.521) among center fielders, and his nine homers trailed just Hamilton (18) and Adam Jones (10).

Gomez's power surge has transformed him from an easy out (76 OPS+ in 2010) into a quality MLB hitter (102 OPS+ in 2012), free-swinging style be damned. His new deal could turn out to be a bargain for Milwaukee, now that he's got pop to go along with his base running and fielding prowess.

With Improved Fastball Command, Felix Still King

Not since the days of Roger Clemens, Doc Gooden and Bret Saberhagen has a starting pitcher had as good of a start to his career as Felix Hernandez. But the curly-haired teenager throwing upper 90s gas who debuted with the Mariners back in 2005 would scarcely recognize the crafty 26-year-old who's set to sign a contract extension that will pay him the highest average annual salary ($27.1 million) ever for a pitcher. King Felix's fastball no longer sizzles toward home plate, but he has extended his reign with improved command of the pitch.

Hernandez's fastball averaged 94.4 miles per hour at the beginning of the Pitch F/X era in 2008, a mark bested only by Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana among qualified starting pitchers. Last year, Felix's average velocity with both his four-seam fastball and sinker was 92.4 MPH -- just a tick above the 91.2 MPH average for right-handers. Yet, batters didn't really do all that much more damage against Hernandez's fastball last year (.410 slugging percentage) than they did in 2008 (.396).

How has Felix remained so effective with seemingly run-of-the-mill velocity? By hitting his spots. He's throwing fewer fastballs over the heart of the plate as he makes the transition from flame-thrower to marksman:

Hernandez's percentage of fastballs thrown over the horizontal middle of the plate, 2008-12

2008: 22.9%

2009: 22.4%

2010: 23.4%

2011: 20.3%

2012: 19.8%

MLB AVG for SP: 23.6%

Fastballs left over the middle of the plate tend to get thumped (batters slugged .502 last year) and Felix's is no exception (.525 opponent slugging percentage), so avoiding that spot is key. Few did a better job of that in 2012: Dan Haren (19.6%), Doug Fister (19.5%), Jason Vargas (19.1%), Tommy Milone (18.9%), and Jeremy Hellickson (18.5%) were the only AL starters who threw a lower percentage of fastballs over the horizontal middle of the plate.

King Felix, power pitcher, is dead. Long live King Felix, command-and-control artist.