Newly-Extended Rizzo Crushing Upper-Half Pitches

Anthony Rizzo is just 23 years old, but he has already beaten cancer and been traded twice. Learning to handle middle and high pitches, then, has been a cakewalk by comparison. Rizzo's staggering improvement against stuff thrown above the belt is a major reason why the Cubs felt comfortable locking him up with a seven-year, $41 contract extension, with two club options that could make it a nine-year, $73 million pact.

During his rookie year with the Padres in 2011, Rizzo's long, uppercut swing produced little more than wind power against pitches thrown in the upper half of the strike zone. The 6-foot-3, 240 pound prospect hit like a banjo-strumming middle infielder, with an upper-half slugging percentage (.217) that was over 200 points below the major league average (.425).

Rizzo's slugging percentage vs. upper-half pitches, 2011

In 2012, Rizzo made significant progress in solving his above-the-belt troubles. He cut his miss rate against upper-half pitches from about 32% to 13%, and he raised his slugging percentage to right around the league average (.415).

Rizzo's slugging percentage vs. upper-half pitches, 2012

Rizzo is making plenty of contact again on upper-half pitches this season (14% miss rate), but it's much louder contact. He's slugging .661 versus above-the-belt pitches, and his six homers on upper-half pitches already triples his 2012 total (two).

Rizzo's slugging percentage vs. upper-half pitches, 2013

Just two years after ranking in the bottom 20 among MLB hitters in upper-half slugging percentage, Anthony Rizzo now keeps company with the likes of Bryce Harper, Carlos Santana and Chris Davis in the top 20:

Highest slugging percentage vs. upper-half pitches, 2013

Rizzo's progress against middle and high pitches suggests that his new deal could be a bargain for the Cubs, and so do his career comps. Rizzo has a 122 OPS+ in 532 plate appearances during his age 22-23 seasons, a mark similar to those posted by first basemen like Willie McCovey, Keith Hernandez and Kent Hrbek at the same age.

It remains to be seen if Rizzo can match Stretch's feats of strength or get on base like Hernandez (to say nothing of growing such an awesome 'stache), but he's off to a great start.

The Cubs starters deserve a better fate

Entering action on April 24, whose starting pitching has been better this season, the Cubs or the Giants?

Let me ask you another question, entering action on April 24, whose starting pitching has been better this season, the Cubs, Marlins or Padres?

Let me answer both questions this way: The Cubs starting pitching deserve better

To answer the first question: the Cubs rotation has a 3.04 ERA, trailing only the Cardinals and Braves (mouse over the team icons to see the ERA and wins), but they only have three wins. The Giants starters have a 4.41 ERA and nine wins.

As for the second question:  the Cubs, Marlins and Padres starters all have just three wins, but the Cubs starters have a 3.04 ERA, the Marlins starters have a 4.20 ERA and the Padres starters have a 5.87 ERA. 

Carlos Villanueva, Travis Wood, and Jeff Samardzija are the guys to feel badly for 

Hard to believe that Carlos Marmol leads this team with two wins.

The Cubs starters deserve better, but when you combine a weak offense and shaky defense this is what you get.

Edwin Jackson, Slider Specialist

At long last, Edwin Jackson can unpack -- we think. While his four-year, $52 million contract with the Cubs doesn't include a no-trade clause, Jackson should at least call Wrigley Field home for the next couple of years. Considering that the 29-year-old righty was on pace to obliterate Octavio Dotel's record for most teams played for in a career -- Jackson has been a Dodger, Devil Ray, Tiger, Diamondback, White Sock, Cardinal and National, and was technically a Blue Jay for a brief moment (though he never suited up) -- that's a step in the right direction.

It's surprising that it has taken Jackson this long to settle down in one city. He might not be the Cy Young contender that people envisioned when he celebrated his 20th birthday by outdueling Randy Johnson during his MLB debut, but Jackson has been above-average since he reached Detroit (106 ERA+ from 2009-12) while tossing slightly over 200 innings pitched per season. That combination of quality and quantity has made Jackson the 29th-most valuable starter over that time frame, judging by Baseball-Reference's Wins Above Replacement.

Jackson's slider is the main reason that he has evolved from a perceived bust to a solid starter making serious bank. Here's a closer look at his mid-to-high-80s breaker, which ranks among the game's best out pitches.

• Jackson threw his slider 29.3% of the time in 2012, the ninth-highest clip among MLB starters. Ryan Dempster (39.5%), Madison Bumgarner (35.6%), Bud Norris (36.3%), Ervin Santana (36.3%), Francisco Liriano (32.5%), Jason Marquis (32.1%), CC Sabathia (31.8%) and Bruce Chen (29.9%) were the only starters to rely on the slide-piece more often.
• With a miss rate approaching 50%, Jackson got swings and misses with his slider more frequently than any other starter in the game:

Highest slider whiff rate among MLB starters, 2012 (minimum 300 thrown)

Pitcher	Miss Pct.
Edwin Jackson	48.5%
Zack Greinke	44.7%
Yu Darvish	44.2%
James McDonald	43.9%
Francisco Liriano	43.3%
CC Sabathia	43.0%
Colby Lewis	42.5%
Clayton Kershaw	42.3%
Derek Holland	41.8%
Max Scherzer	41.7%
MLB Avg. for SP	30.9%

• Jackson uses his slider as a chase pitch, placing just 37.3% of them within the strike zone. The average for starters, by contrast, is about 47%. Hitters can't seem to lay off those off-the-plate-sliders. Check out Jackson's swing rate by pitch location with his slider, and then the league average for right-handed starting pitchers:

        Jackson's slider swing rate             Avg. slider swing rate for SP

Jackson boasted the highest slider chase rate (44.1%) among NL starters last year. In the AL, only Colby Lewis (50.7% slider chase rate), Brian Matusz (48.3%), Yu Darvish (44.6%) and Liriano (44.6%) made batters hack at more would-be balls.

• Fanning 111 hitters with his out pitch, Jackson led NL starters in slider strikeouts and trailed just Sabathia (138 slider Ks) among all starters.
• While the slider is usually more effective against same-handed hitters, Jackson actually got better results with the pitch against lefties. He held left-handers to a .299 slugging percentage against his slider, compared to .361 against righties. For comparison's sake, righty starters surrendered a collective .386 slugging percentage with sliders against lefty batters last season, and a .350 slugging percentage against righties.