The Power of BAbip and Runs

• The average team in the American League has a .295 Batting Average for balls in play.
• The average team in the American League has scored 307 runs. 

• The Red Sox have a .321 BAbip and have scored 371 runs, to lead in both categories.
• The Tigers at .317 and 342 are second in both categories
• But scan over the Astros and the Royals and you can see two teams that have not taken advantage of their high BAbip to put runs on the board.
• On the other hand, the Rays and the A's are scoring above average despite having lower than average BAbip. Both teams know how to move runners around the bases.
• You have to know that both the Yankees and the White Sox are counting on progressing to the mean in both categories.

National League

• The average team in the National League has a .295 Batting Average for balls in play.
• The average team in the National League has scored 287 runs.
• Despite the lack of DH, the BAbip is the same, but there is a 20 run per team differential

• As you can see, the the Cardinals have a .321 BAbip, the best in the NL and they have scored 355 runs, tied for the most in the NL with the Rockies.
• This means that the Cards and the Red Sox, the two teams with the best records in their leagues are both doing this with their bats.
• What impresses me is that the Reds, who have an average BAbip have scored 327 runs, third best in the NL.
• Note that the Pirates are the only team of the eight below 300 runs scored in the NL with an over .500 record. Every other team, from the 36-35 Padres on up have scored over 300 runs and are above average in BAbip.

Keep watching

Regression and progression to the mean in BAbip may bring the Red Sox and the Cardinals back to the field and a number of other teams will be back in play.

B.Chuck: Boston should be worried about their pitching

As I pointed out yesterday, the Red Sox revival this season has more to do with John Farrell's magic with getting the most out of timely hitting and good clubhouse chemistry than with his presumed talents with a pitching staff. 

• The Red Sox are seventh in the league with a team ERA of 3.84.
• Their starters are fourth in the league with a 3.79 ERA and their bullpen is 11th in the AL with a 3.94 ERA. 

But perhaps what should be most disconcerting for Red Sox Nation is there is no indication that the pitching staff is getting better.

Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
April/March	18	8	.692	3.58	8	231.0	191	97	92	26	97	255	1.247	9.9	2.63
May	15	15	.500	4.00	3	265.2	260	131	118	32	108	249	1.385	8.4	2.31
June	9	6	.600	3.95	2	136.2	136	62	60	21	55	115	1.398	7.6	2.09
April/Mar,GS	15	4	.789	3.24	0	158.1	131	62	57	15	66	170	1.244	9.7	2.58
May,GS	9	13	.409	4.15	0	177.2	168	93	82	23	73	155	1.356	7.9	2.12
June,GS	7	4	.636	4.03	0	89.1	93	41	40	16	32	68	1.399	6.9	2.13
April/Mar,GR	3	4	.429	4.33	8	72.2	60	35	35	11	31	85	1.252	10.5	2.74
May,GR	6	2	.750	3.68	3	88.0	92	38	36	9	35	94	1.443	9.6	2.69
June,GR	2	2	.500	3.80	2	47.1	43	21	20	5	23	47	1.394	8.9	2.04

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 6/18/2013.

A look at the numbers

When you look at the numbers for the pitchers, you can sense that it's pretty amazing that this is a first-place ballclub.

• With 171 bases on ball, Sox starters have a significant lead in issuing walks over any other group of starters in the majors.
• With 7142 pitches, Sox starters have thrown more pitches than any other group of starters in the majors, yet they are 10th in the majors in innings thrown.
• Sox relievers are 10th in innings pitched in the AL with 208.0, but are 11th in ERA in the AL and 13th in WHIP with 1.365.
• Slugging average against starters is .403, tied for third in the AL and while the slugging against the relievers is .403, that's only good for 13th in the AL.
• The strikeout to walk ratio is 2.30 for starters (10th in the AL) and 2.54 for the bullpen (6th in the AL).
• FYI: The Sox pitchers have issued eight bases-loaded walks this season, the most in the majors.

Let's look at some individual numbers 

• Clay Buchholz is having a Cy Young season: he's 9-0 with a 1.71 ERA. He has pitched brilliantly when he's been out there. Buchholz has made 12 starts, missing three so far and we await news as to whether he is going on the DL. Since the start of 2010, Buchholz has made 83 starts, while teammate Jon Lester has made 111.
• Lester is a whole other set of issues. In his first nine starts, Lester was 6-0 with a 2.72 ERA. In his last six starts, he is 0-4 and a 7.20 ERA. Lester with 1627 pitches thrown, has tossed more than any other pitcher in baseball, but his 94.7 IP is good for only 15th in baseball. Lester is around the strike zone, he has 69 full counts, the most in baseball, but his 135 foul balls when the batter has two strikes on him is indicative of his inability to finish off an at bat.
• Despite his 4-5 record, John Lackey has been a pleasant surprise rebounding well from two bad seasons and Tommy John surgery. He has a 3.08 ERA but has a not very impressive 1.212 WHIP.
• Of course, Lackey's WHIP looks better when you compare it to Ryan Dempster's 1.332 and Felix Doubront's 1.895, who have ERAs of 4.21 and 4.445 respectively, if not respectfully. 

Let's go to the bullpen

• With the relief corps being used frequently, the Sox bullpenners Andrew Miller, Junichi Tazawa, and Koji Uehara have each appeared in over 30 games already this season.
• Andrew Bailey is the full-time closer now that Joel Hanrahan's Red Sox career is probably finished due to injuries. Each season Bailey seems to battle injuries as well. He has been successful in eight-of-10 save attempts. He's had seven-of-22 appearances in which he has not allowed a baserunner. 
• As a frame of reference, Joe Nathan has had 15-of-30 appearances without allowing a baserunner and Jason Grilli is 17-of-33.

Reason to be concerned

The deeper you look at the pitching (and this was just a glance) for the Red Sox, the more you need to be concerned.

Thus far, the Red Sox timely hitting has carried the team. Having said that, the average team BABIP is .296 and the Red Sox have the highest team BABIP in baseball at .332.

How lucky is that hitting?

Well, in 2008 the Texas Rangers had a .325 BABIP and in 1997, the Red Sox had a .325 batting average for balls in play, the Twins had a .325 BABIP in 1996, the highest numbers in the last 20 seasons.

All of which makes you think that if the Sox don't start getting luckier or better on the mound, the Orioles and Rays and maybe even the Yankees and the Jays will be making the AL East and Wild Card races very close and Red Sox Nation very nervous.

B. Chuck: The Offensive Red Sox Season

With all the talk about the effect that John Farrell's return to the Red Sox would have on the Boston pitching staff, so far it's been highly over-rated.

The Sox are seventh in the league with a team ERA of 3.84. Their starters are fourth in the league with a 3.79 ERA and their bullpen is 11th in the AL with a 3.94 ERA.

The key to the success of the Red Sox this season have been their bats and credit for that certainly needs to go to hitting coach Gregg Colbrunn and his assistant, Victor Rodriguez (and very high marks to GM Ben Cherington who has put together a terrific assortment of "chemists").

Serious Offense

• The Red Sox lead the majors 363 runs scored.
• They are tied with the Orioles with 155 doubles, the most in the majors.
• They are tied with the Rays and Indians with 80 homers, the sixth most in the majors.
• They are second to the A's, 277 to 273 walks.
• They are second to the Padres, 61 to 57 steals.
• They are second to the Cards, 205 to 184 hits with runners in scoring position.
• They are tied for second in the AL with the A's with bases loaded hits, but lead the majors with 66 bases loaded RBI.
• The Sox are tied with the Tigers for the league lead with a .285 June batting average.
• They lead the AL 156 June hits, 13 more than the A's who are in second place.
• They lead the AL with 23 June homers
• They lead the AL with 88 RBI, 28 more than the Jays who are second with 60 ribbies.

The Individual Plusses

One of the other keys to the Red Sox offensive success is the variety of players who have been hot at different times throughout the season.

• For example, while the Sox and the Phillies only have four homers each from the number three slot in the batting order, the fewest in baseball, the Sox have Dustin Pedroia who's hitting .319, the best of any #3 in the AL not named Miguel Cabrera.
• And they have David Ortiz who has driven home 14 runs in June, the most in the AL, despite a .220 batting average.
• Jacoby Ellsbury, in his walk year, has been running. He's tied with Everth Cabrera for the MLB lead with 31 steals and tied with Mike Trout for the AL lead in triples with six.
• Mike Napoli has been an RBI machine providing clutch hits, particularly in the early going.
• Don't forget the great fielding Jose Iglesias who has a 17-game hitting streak, the longest for any rookie this season, and is hitting .438 in 99 PA this season.
• Daniel Nava is one of the great "who's thats?" of this season, but is deserving of some AL All-Star write-in votes. Nava is hitting .288 on the season and his 44 RBI are third on the team to Ortiz' and Napoli's 49, but 24 of the RBI have come from the 7th inning on and Nava leads the majors in that category. His 38 RBI as an outfielder puts him eight among all MLB outfielders. And, his .378 OBP ranks 10th among all outfielders (he has a .383 OBP overall).
• Mike Carp has hit eight homers in 105 AB and is slugging .686 to go with his .324 BA.
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia is hitting .271 overall and improving behind the plate and the switch-hitter is hitting .303 as a lefty.

So, through an assortment of pieces the Red Sox have put together three strong first months of the season.

But is that enough to get them through the year?

Tomorrow, I look at the minuses of the Boston ball club, starting with the starting pitching.