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Entries in Clayton Kershaw (14)

Monday
Jan202014

Clayton Kershaw's $215 Million Curveball

There are myriad reasons why Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw just earned a seven-year, $215 million contract extension, becoming the first player in history to pull in more than $30 million a season. Kershaw, 26 in March, boasts the fifth-best park-and-league-adjusted ERA (46 percent above average) ever for a starting pitcher during his first six seasons in the majors, trailing only Walter Johnson (164 ERA+), Mordecai Brown (158 ERA+), Smoky Joe Wood (152 ERA+) and Christy Mathewson (150 ERA+). He's a workhorse, having topped 200 innings pitched in each of the past four seasons, and he has fooled hitters like no other lefty (9.2 strikeouts per nine frames) this side of Randy Johnson (9.4 K/9) to start his career.

Yet for all of the breathtaking stats that Kershaw has compiled since making his debut at Chavez Ravine back in May of 2008, this one may be the most remarkable: he has thrown a total of 2,155 curveballs during the regular season, according to our Pitch F/X data, and exactly zero of those hooks have landed in the cheap seats. That's right -- Kershaw has never surrendered a regular-season homer on the pitch that earns him comparisons to Sandy Koufax. Batters have launched 1,945 home runs off curveballs dating back to '08, but nobody has gone deep against Public Enemy Number One.

What in the name of Vin Scully is going on here? How has Kershaw been so thoroughly dominant with his curveball, which has smothered hitters to the tune of a major league low .145 opponent slugging percentage from 2008-13? Here are three reasons why Kershaw's curve seemingly can't be taken deep.

Batters can't tell whether it's a ball or a strike -- or just don't think they can hit it

To go deep, you obviously have to swing the bat -- and opponents rarely do when Kershaw unleashes a curve. Batters have swung at just one-third of curveballs seen from Kershaw since '08, compared to the 40 percent major league average. Even when the pitch ends up being thrown in the strike zone, hitters pull the trigger less than half of the time (47 percent, compared to the 55 percent MLB average). Either batters can't discern whether it's over the plate in time to swing, or they figure it's futile to even try.

Hitters' swing rate by pitch location versus Kershaw's curveball, 2008-13

Kershaw's curve induces weak contact

When hitters do swing at Kershaw's curve, they often just pound the pitch into the infield grass or hit a weak fly ball. Kershaw has generated grounders 55.2 percent of the time that batters have put his curve in play, north of the 52 percent MLB average. Those who manage to loft the pitch into the air have won a moral victory, but little else. Batters have hit fly balls off Kershaw's curve an average of 244 feet -- second-lowest among all qualified starters dating back to 2008.

Lowest Average fly ball distance on curve balls put in play, 2008-2013 (min. 800 curveballs thrown)  

Kershaw can add and subtract with his curve

L.A.'s ace has thrown his curveball at an average of 73.4 MPH during his career. But he can dial it way up (topping 82 MPH on the gun) or way, way down (he threw a 49 MPH yakker to Yasmani Grandal on September 9, 2012 -- Grandal didn't swing, of course). That might be part of the reason why hitters so rarely swing at Kershaw's curve -- it could be a power pitch, or it might arrive at home plate slower than a Prius traveling on Interstate 5.

Kershaw was wild with curveball when he first arrived in the bigs, throwing it for a strike less than half of the time, but he has gradually learned to control the pitch (57 percent strike rate last year) while adding precision to his power arsenal. His curve, like the rest of his game, has only gotten better. That's a scary proposition any hitter dreaming of finally going yard off the pitch.

Saturday
Oct192013

Matt Carpenter: Two-Strike Warrior

The St. Louis Cardinals scuffle against left-handed pitching, posting the fifth-worst team on-base-plus-slugging percentage (.672) in the majors in 2013. Clayton Kershaw, the game's lefty par excellence, is fooling hitters at a level that not even vintage Sandy Koufax matched (Kershaw's park-and-league adjusted ERA was 94 percent above average during the regular season, just beating out Koufax's epic 1966 campaign).

Naturally, then, the Cards crushed the soon-to-be two-time Cy Young Award winner last night, clinching a World Series berth by tagging Kershaw for 10 hits and seven runs in four innings pitched. The beginning of the end for Kershaw came in the third inning, when Matt Carpenter got down to his last strike but then waged an 11-pitch battle culminating in a double to right field for the stealth NL MVP candidate. St. Louis went on to score four times in the frame on their way to a 9-0 triumph. Here's how the Kershaw-Carpenter duel played out in NLCS Game Six, pitch by pitch:

  • 0-0 - Ball on a 89 MPH Slider - Inside
  • 1-0 - Foul on a 94 MPH Four Seamer - Over the Plate
  • 1-1 - Foul on a 94 MPH Four Seamer - Over the Plate
  • 1-2 - Foul on a 95 MPH Four Seamer - Over the Plate
  • 1-2 - Foul on a 75 MPH Curveball - Over the Plate
  • 1-2 - Foul on a 88 MPH Slider - Over the Plate
  • 1-2 - Foul on a 86 MPH Slider - Low
  • 1-2 - Foul on a 94 MPH Four Seamer - Over the Plate
  • 1-2 - Ball on a 93 MPH Four Seamer - Inside
  • 2-2 - Foul on a 94 MPH Four Seamer - Outside
  • 2-2 - Line Drive Double on a 86 MPH Slider - Over the Plate
  •  

    Kershaw pounded the outside corner for most of the at-bat, trying to target the second baseman's relative weak spot (Carpenter slugged .383 versus pitches thrown to the outer third of the strike zone during the regular season, compared to .457 on middle pitches and .702 on inner-third pitches). But Carpenter prevailed when Kershaw caught too much of the dish with his slider:

    Kershaw's pitch location to Carpenter in the third inning of Game 6

    How rare is it for Kershaw to surrender an extra-base hit to a lefty on his slider? Just three left-handed batters accomplished the feat during the regular season. Jay Bruce belted a pair of Kershaw sliders over the fence on September 9, Sam Fuld tripled on August 11, and Gerardo Parra doubled on June 10. That's it. That's the list.

    Perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised that Carpenter came out on top against Kershaw, considering his two-strike prowess in 2013. Carpenter has a .780 OPS with his back against the wall, besting the MLB average by 266 points and placing second to Miguel Cabrera among all qualified hitters.

    Highest OPS in two-strike counts, 2013

    Tuesday
    Sep242013

    Breaking Bad

    Sorry folks, this is not about Walter White, but it's a story about pitchers who throw the hook, the bender, Uncle Charlie, a yakker, the deuce, yes, my friends...the curve ball.

    This is baseball's "Breaking Bad."

    2013 top 10 curveball throwers

    There has been nobody who has used the curveball more frequently this season, and most often quite successfully, than A.J. Burnett.
    Most curves - 2013
    PGBF
    A. J. Burnett (PIT)1,02729294
    Adam Wainwright (STL)95033263
    Jose Fernandez (MIA)87628268
    Scott Feldman (BAL)80429187
    Edinson Volquez (LAD)70932160
    Gio Gonzalez (WSH)68331155
    Doug Fister (DET)64831164
    Stephen Strasburg (WSH)62929157
    Jose Quintana (CWS)62532144
    Yovani Gallardo (MIL)62330134

    Curveballs swings and misses

    Here's why I think we haven't seen the best from the Rangers' Yu Darvish.

    Darvish leads the majors in strikeouts, but wait until he feels comfortable calling on his Uncle Charlie a little more frequently.

    You can see by the chart below, baseball's most effective curveball miss machine belongs to Yu.
    2013 - Curveball Swings & Misses
    PSwng%Miss%Foul%
    Yu Darvish (TEX)9632.3%51.6%22.6%
    Madison Bumgarner (SF)42639.9%42.4%24.1%
    A. J. Burnett (PIT)1,02751.2%42.0%28.9%
    Doug Fister (DET)64841.7%41.5%24.8%
    Stephen Strasburg (WSH)62936.2%40.4%28.5%
    Clayton Kershaw (LAD)41344.6%39.7%25.0%
    Mike Minor (ATL)41650.2%37.3%27.8%
    Jordan Zimmermann (WSH)36328.7%36.5%25.0%
    Edwin Jackson (CHC)13240.2%35.8%28.3%
    Cliff Lee (PHI)24145.2%35.8%32.1%

    Fooling batters

    There are two primary ways in which I evaluate a batter being fooled on a pitch: the first being chasing pitches out of the zone, and the second, taking the pitch for a called strike.

    Now before you start emailing how ridiculous that is, I understand that circumstances, umpires, counts, and other reasons factor into a batter chasing a pitch or taking a pitch, but over the course of the season, if a pitcher is tossing balls that batters chase, have their knees buckled as they break over the plate, or just get a piece of to stay alive, the man is throwing a good curveball.

    Here are the leaders:
    2013 - Chase, Called Strikes and Fouled off Curveballs
    PChas%ClStk%Foul%
    A. J. Burnett (PIT)1,02742.1%29.1%28.9%
    Mike Minor (ATL)41639.6%24.2%27.8%
    Jose Fernandez (MIA)87637.5%41.6%35.8%
    Wade Miley (ARI)8137.0%16.7%43.6%
    Derek Holland (TEX)15136.4%39.8%31.7%
    Mark Buehrle (TOR)23436.1%25.2%34.1%
    Adam Wainwright (STL)95035.2%38.3%31.2%
    Matt Harvey (NYM)35133.1%45.7%31.6%
    A. J. Griffin (OAK)49732.8%31.0%33.6%
    Mike Leake (CIN)42330.7%40.7%27.3%

    Whiffs

    Great pitchers know how and when to use their curveball effectively. The best example comes from baseball's best pitcher, Clayton Kershaw, who strikes out more batters on the curve than any other pitcher.

    When you look at the chart below, look at all the elements we have previously addressed, including miss rate, chase rate, foul balls
    2013 Curveball Strikeout Leaders
    PPAK%Strk%ClStk%Swng%Miss%Zone%Chas%Foul%
    Clayton Kershaw (LAD)41314153.9%56.4%21.4%44.6%39.7%41.6%28.6%25.0%
    Dan Haren (WSH)1291952.6%54.3%37.2%27.1%34.3%41.1%17.1%40.0%
    Stephen Strasburg (WSH)62915752.2%64.2%43.9%36.2%40.4%50.7%29.0%28.5%
    Wade Miley (ARI)812050.0%56.8%16.7%48.1%30.8%33.3%37.0%43.6%
    Cliff Lee (PHI)2416947.8%58.5%24.2%45.2%35.8%46.5%26.4%32.1%
    Madison Bumgarner (SF)42611346.0%53.5%22.7%39.9%42.4%33.3%29.9%24.1%
    Gio Gonzalez (WSH)68315545.8%51.8%25.9%35.0%35.1%38.1%24.1%32.2%
    Cole Hamels (PHI)2386344.4%53.8%21.4%41.2%34.7%37.4%27.5%34.7%
    Jose Fernandez (MIA)87626843.7%69.9%41.6%48.4%33.0%55.6%37.5%35.8%
    A. J. Burnett (PIT)1,02729443.5%65.4%29.1%51.2%42.0%39.9%42.1%28.9%

    Hitting against the curve

    Don't focus on Jerome Williams here, I want you to notice that batters are 14 (singles) in 141 PA against Clayton Kershaw's curve this season. Kershaw is the Sophia Vergara of baseball, his curves are so good.
    Here are the numbers:
    2013 - Hitting Against the Curveball
    GPAAVGOBPSLUGOPSHXBHHR
    Jerome Williams (LAA)3238.081.105.135.240320
    Clayton Kershaw (LAD)32141.099.099.099.1991400
    Gio Gonzalez (WSH)31155.108.143.162.3051651
    Jose Fernandez (MIA)28268.114.176.163.3392882
    Stephen Strasburg (WSH)29157.137.159.183.3422151
    Mat Latos (CIN)3169.141.176.219.395940
    Dillon Gee (NYM)3165.145.185.161.346910
    Madison Bumgarner (SF)31113.147.170.220.3901661
    Ian Kennedy (SD)3074.149.230.224.4541031
    A. J. Burnett (PIT)29294.155.192.209.40043121

    There's breaking bad and breaking bad


    2013 - 13 Pitchers w/.300+ BA Against the Curve
    GPAAVGOBPSLUGOPSHXBHHR
    Travis Wood (CHC)187.667.7141.0001.714420
    Jarrod Parker (OAK)72.500.500.5001.000100
    CC Sabathia (NYY)3213.385.385.6921.077521
    Edwin Jackson (CHC)2223.381.435.524.959820
    Kyle Lohse (MIL)3150.362.375.511.8861751
    Derek Holland (TEX)3032.355.344.9031.2471175
    Andy Pettitte (NYY)2952.333.333.417.7501640
    Eric Stults (SD)3288.329.341.506.8472892
    Jeremy Guthrie (KC)3159.322.322.508.8311953
    Joe Saunders (SEA)3252.320.333.600.9331664
    Miguel Gonzalez (BAL)2831.310.323.448.771940
    Bronson Arroyo (CIN)3170.309.329.574.9022194
    Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD)2872.300.319.471.7912182

    One final suggestion

    To be added to the baseball vernacular: a hanging curve that is hit for a homer should be called? A Heisenberg...because it was breaking bad.