Breaking Bad

Tuesday

Sep242013

Bill Chuck - Managing Editor |

Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 4:16PM

Sorry folks, this is not about Walter White, but it's a story about pitchers who throw the hook, the bender, Uncle Charlie, a yakker, the deuce, yes, my friends...the curve ball.

This is baseball's "Breaking Bad."

2013 top 10 curveball throwers

There has been nobody who has used the curveball more frequently this season, and most often quite successfully, than A.J. Burnett.

Most curves - 2013

	P	G	BF
A. J. Burnett (PIT)	1,027	29	294
Adam Wainwright (STL)	950	33	263
Jose Fernandez (MIA)	876	28	268
Scott Feldman (BAL)	804	29	187
Edinson Volquez (LAD)	709	32	160
Gio Gonzalez (WSH)	683	31	155
Doug Fister (DET)	648	31	164
Stephen Strasburg (WSH)	629	29	157
Jose Quintana (CWS)	625	32	144
Yovani Gallardo (MIL)	623	30	134

Curveballs swings and misses

Here's why I think we haven't seen the best from the Rangers' Yu Darvish.

Darvish leads the majors in strikeouts, but wait until he feels comfortable calling on his Uncle Charlie a little more frequently.

You can see by the chart below, baseball's most effective curveball miss machine belongs to Yu.

2013 - Curveball Swings & Misses

	P	Swng%	Miss%	Foul%
Yu Darvish (TEX)	96	32.3%	51.6%	22.6%
Madison Bumgarner (SF)	426	39.9%	42.4%	24.1%
A. J. Burnett (PIT)	1,027	51.2%	42.0%	28.9%
Doug Fister (DET)	648	41.7%	41.5%	24.8%
Stephen Strasburg (WSH)	629	36.2%	40.4%	28.5%
Clayton Kershaw (LAD)	413	44.6%	39.7%	25.0%
Mike Minor (ATL)	416	50.2%	37.3%	27.8%
Jordan Zimmermann (WSH)	363	28.7%	36.5%	25.0%
Edwin Jackson (CHC)	132	40.2%	35.8%	28.3%
Cliff Lee (PHI)	241	45.2%	35.8%	32.1%

Fooling batters

There are two primary ways in which I evaluate a batter being fooled on a pitch: the first being chasing pitches out of the zone, and the second, taking the pitch for a called strike.

Now before you start emailing how ridiculous that is, I understand that circumstances, umpires, counts, and other reasons factor into a batter chasing a pitch or taking a pitch, but over the course of the season, if a pitcher is tossing balls that batters chase, have their knees buckled as they break over the plate, or just get a piece of to stay alive, the man is throwing a good curveball.

Here are the leaders:

2013 - Chase, Called Strikes and Fouled off Curveballs

	P	Chas%	ClStk%	Foul%
A. J. Burnett (PIT)	1,027	42.1%	29.1%	28.9%
Mike Minor (ATL)	416	39.6%	24.2%	27.8%
Jose Fernandez (MIA)	876	37.5%	41.6%	35.8%
Wade Miley (ARI)	81	37.0%	16.7%	43.6%
Derek Holland (TEX)	151	36.4%	39.8%	31.7%
Mark Buehrle (TOR)	234	36.1%	25.2%	34.1%
Adam Wainwright (STL)	950	35.2%	38.3%	31.2%
Matt Harvey (NYM)	351	33.1%	45.7%	31.6%
A. J. Griffin (OAK)	497	32.8%	31.0%	33.6%
Mike Leake (CIN)	423	30.7%	40.7%	27.3%

Whiffs

Great pitchers know how and when to use their curveball effectively. The best example comes from baseball's best pitcher, Clayton Kershaw, who strikes out more batters on the curve than any other pitcher.

When you look at the chart below, look at all the elements we have previously addressed, including miss rate, chase rate, foul balls

2013 Curveball Strikeout Leaders

	P	PA	K%	Strk%	ClStk%	Swng%	Miss%	Zone%	Chas%	Foul%
Clayton Kershaw (LAD)	413	141	53.9%	56.4%	21.4%	44.6%	39.7%	41.6%	28.6%	25.0%
Dan Haren (WSH)	129	19	52.6%	54.3%	37.2%	27.1%	34.3%	41.1%	17.1%	40.0%
Stephen Strasburg (WSH)	629	157	52.2%	64.2%	43.9%	36.2%	40.4%	50.7%	29.0%	28.5%
Wade Miley (ARI)	81	20	50.0%	56.8%	16.7%	48.1%	30.8%	33.3%	37.0%	43.6%
Cliff Lee (PHI)	241	69	47.8%	58.5%	24.2%	45.2%	35.8%	46.5%	26.4%	32.1%
Madison Bumgarner (SF)	426	113	46.0%	53.5%	22.7%	39.9%	42.4%	33.3%	29.9%	24.1%
Gio Gonzalez (WSH)	683	155	45.8%	51.8%	25.9%	35.0%	35.1%	38.1%	24.1%	32.2%
Cole Hamels (PHI)	238	63	44.4%	53.8%	21.4%	41.2%	34.7%	37.4%	27.5%	34.7%
Jose Fernandez (MIA)	876	268	43.7%	69.9%	41.6%	48.4%	33.0%	55.6%	37.5%	35.8%
A. J. Burnett (PIT)	1,027	294	43.5%	65.4%	29.1%	51.2%	42.0%	39.9%	42.1%	28.9%

Hitting against the curve

Don't focus on Jerome Williams here, I want you to notice that batters are 14 (singles) in 141 PA against Clayton Kershaw's curve this season. Kershaw is the Sophia Vergara of baseball, his curves are so good.

Here are the numbers:

2013 - Hitting Against the Curveball

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	H	XBH	HR
Jerome Williams (LAA)	32	38	.081	.105	.135	.240	3	2	0
Clayton Kershaw (LAD)	32	141	.099	.099	.099	.199	14	0	0
Gio Gonzalez (WSH)	31	155	.108	.143	.162	.305	16	5	1
Jose Fernandez (MIA)	28	268	.114	.176	.163	.339	28	8	2
Stephen Strasburg (WSH)	29	157	.137	.159	.183	.342	21	5	1
Mat Latos (CIN)	31	69	.141	.176	.219	.395	9	4	0
Dillon Gee (NYM)	31	65	.145	.185	.161	.346	9	1	0
Madison Bumgarner (SF)	31	113	.147	.170	.220	.390	16	6	1
Ian Kennedy (SD)	30	74	.149	.230	.224	.454	10	3	1
A. J. Burnett (PIT)	29	294	.155	.192	.209	.400	43	12	1

There's breaking bad and breaking bad

2013 - 13 Pitchers w/.300+ BA Against the Curve

	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	H	XBH	HR
Travis Wood (CHC)	18	7	.667	.714	1.000	1.714	4	2	0
Jarrod Parker (OAK)	7	2	.500	.500	.500	1.000	1	0	0
CC Sabathia (NYY)	32	13	.385	.385	.692	1.077	5	2	1
Edwin Jackson (CHC)	22	23	.381	.435	.524	.959	8	2	0
Kyle Lohse (MIL)	31	50	.362	.375	.511	.886	17	5	1
Derek Holland (TEX)	30	32	.355	.344	.903	1.247	11	7	5
Andy Pettitte (NYY)	29	52	.333	.333	.417	.750	16	4	0
Eric Stults (SD)	32	88	.329	.341	.506	.847	28	9	2
Jeremy Guthrie (KC)	31	59	.322	.322	.508	.831	19	5	3
Joe Saunders (SEA)	32	52	.320	.333	.600	.933	16	6	4
Miguel Gonzalez (BAL)	28	31	.310	.323	.448	.771	9	4	0
Bronson Arroyo (CIN)	31	70	.309	.329	.574	.902	21	9	4
Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD)	28	72	.300	.319	.471	.791	21	8	2