Rangers Extend Derek Holland

By the time Rangers starter Derek Holland's contract extension is through, he might even be able to grow a full-blown 'stache. The 25-year-old lefty agreed to terms on a five-year, $28 million deal with club options for 2017 ($11 million) and 2018 ($11.5 million). Holland's pact is pretty similar to the extensions signed by Yovani Gallardo, Ricky Romero, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Trevor Cahill in recent years.

Holland is coming off a successful first full season in the big league rotation, posting a 113 ERA+ in 198 innings with 7.4 K/9, 3 BB/9 and 1 HR/9. He showed plenty of zip on his fastball and a solid slider, but to emerge as an ace and better handle right-handed hitters, Holland must fine-tune his curveball and changeup.

After sitting around 92 mph the previous two years, Holland gained fastball velocity throughout the 2011 season (going from 93 mph in April to 94.8 mph in September) and averaged 94.1 mph overall. Tampa's David Price was the only lefty to do a better job of lighting up the gun. Holland's heat had a healthy miss rate (17%, compared to the 14-15% average for starters), and few hitters made forceful contact when they did connect. Here's his in-play slugging percentage with the fastball in 2011, and then the league average:

Hitters' in-play slugging percentage vs. Holland's fastball, 2011

Average in-play slugging percentage vs. fastballs, 2011

Batters slugged just .362 versus Holland's fastball, placing him between Justin Verlander and Price in the top 10 among AL starters. Lefties had a harder time against Holland's fastball (.290 slugging) than righties (.390), but that righty slugging percentage was still well below the .424 overall average for starters this past year.

Holland's low-80's slider got plenty of misses (36%, versus the 29% average for starters), but the pitch was much more effective against fellow left-handers (.273 slugging percentage) than righties (.388 slugging percentage, above the .353 overall average for starters in 2011). That's not unusual -- sliders typically have a big platoon split. Lefty pitchers held lefties to a .285 slugging percentage on sliders in 2011, but a righties managed a .353 slugging percentage.

Curveballs and changeups are pitches that tend to be more effective against opposite-handed hitters than sliders, but that wasn't the case for Holland. Righties crushed Holland's curve (.582 slugging percentage), particularly on pitches that hugged the corners of the strike zone:

Righty hitters' in-play slugging percentage vs. Holland's curve, 2011

Against the changeup, batters blasted pitches that Holland left down the middle while slugging .490 overall:

Righty hitters' in-play slugging percentage vs. Holland's changeup, 2011

By virtue of his fastball, Holland is already a quality starter with room for growth. But with his best secondary offering being a slider with a big platoon split and opposite-handers teeing off on his curve and changeup, Holland fared much better versus lefties (.235/.284/.316) than righties (.272/.339/.426). The Dutchstache is a quality curveball or changeup away from dominating.

Holland's Breaking Stuff Key in Series-Tying Masterpiece

The Dutchstache may have saved the Rangers' season last night, tossing 8.1 scoreless innings as Texas tied the World Series at two apiece with a 4-0 victory. Derek Holland gave up just two hits -- both to Lance Berkman -- while striking out seven and walking two. The 25-year-old, an above-slot sign in the 25th round of the '06 draft, had the longest scoreless outing by an AL starter in the Fall Classic since Andy Pettitte blanked Atlanta in 8.1 frames back in 1996.

Holland is known for routinely hitting the mid-to-upper-90s with his fastball, but his breaking pitches were paramount in Game Four. The left-hander threw curveballs and sliders a little more than a third of the time against St. Louis. Just 14 of his 39 breaking balls were in the strike zone (36 percent), but Holland got Cardinals hitters to chase 13 out-of-zone curves and sliders (52 percent of his total out-of-zone breaking balls thrown).

St. Louis didn't really go up to the plate hacking wildly at Holland's breaking balls, though. Instead, the Rangers lefty placed his curves and sliders just off the edge of the zone. The pitches were off the plate, but not by much. Check out the location of the breaking pitches that Cardinals hitters swung at last night:

Location of Holland's curveballs and sliders that St. Louis hitters swung at in Game Four

While Holland only threw 14 of his 39 breaking pitches within the strike zone, 27 of his curves and sliders were labeled as "competitive," meaning they were located within 18 inches of the middle of the zone.

The location of Holland's breaking stuff put the Cardinals in a tough spot last night. The pitches were close enough to the zone that hitters risked having strikes called against them if they chose not to swing. But if they did swing, they didn't figure to have much success. Batters rarely put powerful swings on curves and sliders located in the spots that Holland hit in Game Four:

 League average in-play slugging percentage by location on breaking pitches thrown by left-handed pitchers, 2011

St. Louis went a combined 0-for-8 against Holland's breaking stuff, and Holland registered four of his seven Ks on curves and sliders. Now the world knows there's more to him than velocity and a killer lip tickler.

Dutch Oven's Fastball Heating Up

In the minors, Derek Holland ascended from a 25th-round draft-and-follow selection to primo prospect on the basis of a fastball that jumped up to the mid-to-high 90s range. That velocity wasn't really present in 2009 and 2010, when the lefty sat at 92-93 mph, and he began 2011 in the same territory. But the man they call Dutch Oven, who takes on the Tigers this afternoon in Game 2 of the ALCS, has gained speed on his heater all season. Holland has responded by becoming one of the most fastball-centric pitchers in the game.

In April, Holland averaged 93 mph with his fastball and used the pitch a little over 56 percent of the time. Since then, both his fastball velocity and usage have progressively ticked upward:

Holland's fastball velocity and usage by month:

May: 93.6 mph,  65.3% pitch usage

June: 93.9 mph, 64.1% pitch usage

July: 94.3 mph, 64.1% pitch usage

August: 94.9 mph, 69.4% pitch usage

September: 94.8 mph, 70.2% pitch usage

With his fastball sitting near 95 over the last two months of the season (highest among AL starters over that time frame), Holland struck out a batter per inning in 59 frames. His fastball was particularly nasty in September, when he got hitters to miss 27 percent of the time that they swung at the pitch (the MLB average is 15-16 percent). Holland also shifted his fastball location late in the season, preferring to challenge hitters in the upper part of the strike zone:

Holland's fastball location, April-August 2011

Holland's fastball location, September 2011

His fastball isn't sitting as high in the zone, but Holland has taken that fastball-heavy approach into the playoffs. He threw the pitch nearly three-quarters of the time in two ALDS appearances vs. the Rays (one start), sitting at 95 mph and maxing out at a little over 98 mph.

The 25-year-old, who celebrated his birthday yesterday, might only be able to grow what can charitably be described as a playoff caterpillar on his upper lip (follow the Dutchstache on Twitter!) But that won't matter a bit as long as the Dutch Oven keeps cooking with gas.