The Fantasy Baseball Diary: Buster Posey

Buster Posey

Bats: R | Age: 26 | Team: Giants | Position: C | ADP: 1 (13)

Year	LVL	AGE	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB/CS	SO%	BB%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP	HR/FB
2010	MLB	23	443	18	58	67	0/2	12.4%	6.8%	.305	.357	.505	.862	.315	16.1%
2011	MLB	24	185	4	17	21	3/0	16.2%	9.7%	.284	.368	.389	.757	.326	10.0%
2012	MLB	25	610	24	78	103	1/1	15.7%	11.3%	.336	.408	.549	.957	.368	16.8%

Can Posey repeat his 2012 MVP season?

Buster Posey's mantle already has a MVP and two World Series Rings; pretty impressive for any player, let alone someone whose only been in the big leagues for three seasons. To say anything other than he’s the best catcher in the game (fantasy or real life) would be crazy.

However, I am surprised that he has a current ADP (average draft position) of 13 at Mock Draft Central; that’s right, a catcher is being taken 13^th ahead of players like Prince Fielder, Giancarlo Stanton, Troy Tulowitzki and Clayton Kershaw. Proponents of taking Posey that high say the lack of offensive depth at the catcher position makes his production even more valuable. That’s true for the 2012 season, but as fantasy owners we’re drafting players on what they will do in 2013. All the underlying stats last year suggest a regression is coming. During the second half of the season he had a .385 batting average; there’s no way that’s going to happen again. Also, the .336 batting average was aided by an extremely high.368 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Before 2012, his career BABIP in the big leagues was .314. For additional context, according to Fan Graphs, an average BABIP is between .290-.310.

Another reason for drafting Posey so high is the replacement level value at catcher is the lowest for any position; basically, the value a free agent provides is a lot less than a free agent outfielder. However, for the first time in a long time, the catcher slot is pretty deep.

There are 17 catchers I would be happy with on my team. For two-catcher leagues taking Posey 13^th overall would make more sense, but would still be too high because catchers get hurt and wear down more often than other position, thereby making them riskier.

Bottom line

Posey is my number one rated catcher and I have him ranked 48^th overall. Owners should draft him with the expectation of him repeating the numbers he posted the first half of 2012 .289/.362/.458 rather than the .385/.456/.646 numbers in the second half.