Price's Fastball Priceless

David Price punched out a career-high 14 batters against the Blue Jays on Sunday, and the left-hander's mid-to-upper-90s heat was the main reason. Seventy-seven of Price's 111 pitches were fastballs, with ten of his Ks coming by way of the fastball. Here's what Rays catcher John Jaso and Price said after the 12-0 win over Toronto:

Jaso and Price felt strong gusts pushing them as they walked in from the bullpen beforehand, but didn't know how helpful the wind would be until the game began, and Price's two-seamer started drifting.

"It looks like a strike right out of his hand and then it's just fading off the plate," Jaso explained. "It was moving about three feet. Once they start to swing on his fastball, they can't hold it back." 

"I've never had that much movement before so it was pretty cool," Price said. "The wind kept blowing and it was making my eyes watery all game. I knew it was blowing pretty good and I just kept throwing it."

Price's fastball yesterday tailed away from right-handed hitters (in to lefties) about ten inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. That's nothing new for him, though: Price's fastball has averaged more than 10 inches of tailing action this season, giving him the second-most horizontal movement with the pitch of any left-handed starter (Derek Holland's fastball tails 11 inches).

Combine that movement with the best velocity of any lefty starter (Price averages 94.7 mph with his fastball, topping out at slightly under 99 mph), and you have the recipe for one of the most dominant pitches in baseball. Hitters have missed 21.4 percent fastballs swung at against Price, the fourth-highest rate among starters (Brandon Beachy, Brandon Morrow and Gio Gonzalez rank 1-3).

Price pitches both lefties and righties away with his fastball:

 Frequency of Price's fastball location vs. left-handers

Frequency of Price's fastball location vs. right-handers

Price has shredded lefty batters this year, throwing his fastball to them about 80 percent of the time and holding them to a .149 average, a .216 on-base percentage and a .261 slugging percentage (.259/.339/.386 average for lefty fastballs vs. lefty hitters). Basically, every lefty batter morphs into Drew Butera. Right-handers, who have gotten a fastball two-thirds of the time, have been able to rap some extra-base hits against Price (.243/304/.407), but that's still much better than the .276/.354/.436 average for lefty fastballs against righties.

Most pitchers mix in more breaking and off-speed stuff when they get two strikes on a hitter, but not Price. He's throwing his fastball 71 percent of the time with the hitter's back against the wall, the highest percentage among starters. That helps explain why 125 of his 184 strikeouts (68 percent) have been on fastballs.

David Price also has a pair of breaking balls and a changeup in his arsenal, but it all starts with his darting, blink-and-you'll-miss-it fastball. That's the kind of fastball that would make Mama proud.

James Shields, Strikeout Artist

James Shields struck out 12 Blue Jays last night, completing his MLB-best 10th game of the year and joining CC Sabathia (2008) as just the second pitcher this millennium to finish what he started 10 times in a single season. Big Game is rocking a career-best 3.36 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP), and a major reason is that he's missing bats like never before by using his changeup more in two-strike counts.

At first blush, Shields' K rate this season (8.6 per nine innings pitched) looks similar to his 8.3 K/9 mark from 2010. But in this case, K/9 is misleading. Shields suffered from a .341 batting average on balls in play last year, meaning that he faced considerably more hitters per inning and had more chances to rack up Ks. In 2011, his BABIP has dipped to .267.

So, he's facing fewer hitters per inning (about 3.9 in 2011, compared to 4.4 in 2010) yet getting more strikeouts. Thus, his strikeouts per plate appearance total has climbed from 19-20 percent in past years to 24.3 percent this season, which ranks fourth among AL starters behind Brandon Morrow, Justin Verlander and Michael Pineda.

Shields owes his surging K/PA rate to more darting, mid-80s changeups in two-strike situations. From 2008-2010, he used his change about 40 percent of the time with two strikes on the hitter. He's going to the pitch 47 percent of the time with two strikes in 2011, getting more chases and misses in the process. Look at the location of Shields' changeup with two strikes in past years, compared to 2011:

Location of Shields' changeup with two strikes, 2008-2011

Location of Shields' changeup with two strikes, 2011He's burying more of those two-strike changeups below the knees, throwing just 32 percent of them in the strike zone (37 percent from '08 to '10). And hitters just can't resist, chasing 53 percent of those two-strike off-speed pitches tossed off the plate (51 percent from '08 to '10).

Batters are making less contact with those two-strike changeups below the knees, too:

Hitters' contact rate by pitch location vs. Shields' two-strike changeups, 2008-2010         Hitters' contact rate by pitch location vs. Shields' two-strike changeups, 2011 Shields got a miss with his changeup in two-strike counts slightly less than 35 percent of the time that hitters offered at it from 2008-2010, and 42 percent of the time in 2011. The average two-strike miss rate for a changeup is 28 percent.

By relying more heavily upon his best pitch when hitters are against the ropes, Shields is enjoying his best season yet. He likely won't sniff the Cy Young Award, but he's worthy of down-ballot consideration.

David Price's Diminished Hook

David Price takes the mound tonight for the Rays in Yankee Stadium, bringing with him a 9-10 record with a 3.89 ERA.  One of the problems he's faced this year has been the lack of bite on his curveball.  He's yielded 17 hits off his curve including 5 doubles, one triple, and 2 HRs.

David Price Curveball

	P	AVG	SLG	BABIP	Contact%	HR/FB
2010 Season	520	.262	.359	.329	80.5%	4.2%
2011 Season	271	.298	.526	.326	81.6%	20.0%

While a small sample size caveat applies with the above numbers, PitchFX data indicates he may not be getting quite the same break on his hook as he did last season:

David Price Curveball Movement

	BrkX	BrkZ
2010 Season	4.4	-6.5
2011 Season	3.7	-4.7

The most glaring change has been the reduction in downward movement on Price's curve. In 2010, the lefty was getting 6.5 inches of downward break resulting from the spin on the pitch (BrkZ); this season, he's getting nearly 2 inches less of movement on it. In addition, Price has also seen a drop in left to right movement on his curve.

Right-handed hitters have done most of the damage against his curveball this season, going 14 for 37 with a .591 slugging percentage. With 6 RHB in the New York Yankees' lineup tonight, it will be interesting to see just how much Price utilizes that curveball.