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Entries in St. Louis Cardinals (38)

Wednesday
Oct192011

Napoli's High-Ball Hacking Pays Off 

No player influenced the AL West in 2011 more than Mike Napoli. The part-time backstop, whose defense never earned him the full trust of Mike Scioscia and the Angels, was shipped to Toronto this past January as part of a deal for Vernon Wells. Four days later, Napoli was traded to L.A.'s chief division rival for Frank Francisco. While Wells turned in a wretched season (-0.3 Wins Above Replacement) and raked in $23 million (it's OK, he has three more years to redeem himself at $21 million a pop!), Napoli paced Rangers players with 5.5 WAR.

Napoli has been devastating offensively. Including the playoffs, his .431 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) places third among MLB hitters with at least 400 trips to the plate. Napoli has pared down his strikeout rate (to a career-low 19.8 percent), and his patient approach produces plenty of walks as well (13.1 percent). And when he does decide to take a whack at a pitch off the plate, there's a reason: Napoli knows he can crush it.

Generally speaking, swinging at pitches out of the zone is a lousy idea. Hitters have a collective .195 wOBA when going after pitches out of the zone. But Napoli? He has a .360 wOBA when he goes fishing, which ranks second to Pablo Sandoval among MLB batters. Napoli is hardly a Vlad Guerrero-esque, hack-happy hitter: his 23 percent chase rate is well below the 28-29 percent big league average. Rather, his out-of-zone swings are calculated. Napoli kills high pitches, so he's not bashful about going after pitches up the ladder.

Take a look at Napoli's out-of-zone swing rate this season, compared to the league average. You'll note that he's awfully aggressive on high pitches, but just about never swings at pitches off the plate in other locations:

 Napoli's out-of-zone swing rate, by pitch location

League average out-of-zone swing rate, by pitch locationHere's how Napoli's chase rate breaks down by vertical pitch location, compared to the league average:

High pitches: 29 percent, 26 percent league average

Middle pitches: 27 percent, 34 percent league average

Low pitches: 13 percent, 28 percent league average

Napoli's aggressiveness on high pitches is paying off handsomely. Check out his in-play slugging percentage on pitches thrown out of the strike zone, compared to the league average:

 Napoli's in-play slugging percentage vs. out-of-zone pitches

League average in-play slugging percentage vs. out-of-zone pitches

Napoli's nine homers on out-of-zone pitches rank second in the majors, and seven of those shots have come on high pitches. A word of advice to Cardinals pitchers as the World Series kicks off tonight: if you're thinking about trying to get Napoli to chase high, think again.

Wednesday
Oct122011

Ryan Braun Taking Advantage

Ryan Braun leads all 2011 Postseason participants with 13 hits. His .624 weighted on base average also leads the postseason along with his 25 total bases.  Braun has gone deep twice, one behind six players tied for first, and his two doubles put him in a tie for first with Albert Pujols.

Taking a look at how he's been pitched to so far, it's no surprise he's doing so well at the plate.

Click image to enlarge.

In the regular season, Braun did a lot of damage on balls over the middle of the plate, not surprisingly. But he also killed pitches down in the strike zone, as well as down and in at the knees.  So far in this postseason, pitchers have basically thrown to those locations.

The areas Braun had any difficulty with were pitches up and away and pitches inside.  However, as the heat map indicates, pitchers haven't thrown to those areas much.  In fact, they really haven't thrown Braun much of anything up in the zone at all.

If opposing pitchers continue to throw to Braun's strengths, don't expect his offensive output to slow any time soon.

Tuesday
Sep272011

Brett Myers' Improvement

Brett Myers of the Houston Astros has pitched to a 1.41 ERA over the last month, 5th best of any Major League starter.  In that six game span, Myers has gone 4-0 holding opposing batters to a line of .180/.273/.484.

One reason he's been so dominant has been his improved performance against lefties.

Brett Myers vs. LHB

Myers managed to keep the ball away from lefties more over the last month, and they were unable to do much against him.   They hit just .177 compared .302 prior to August 27th.  Lefties also saw a drop in slugging percentage against Myers, falling from .509 to .278.

Brett Myers vs. LHB

Myers is scheduled to pitch the last game of the season against the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday. While the game will mean essentially nothing to the Astros, the Cards are just one game back of the Wild Card leading Atlanta Braves. Brett Myers performance tomorrow could play a large role in determining which team will be sitting home in October.