Jonathan Sanchez on the Block

Looking to free up some cash to add punch to an offense that brought up the rear in run scoring in the NL last season, the Giants are reportedly shopping left-hander Jonathan Sanchez. Sanchez, 29 later this month, averaged 9.4 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and 2.3 Wins Above Replacement per season from 2008-2010. But this past year, Sanchez channeled Oliver Perez. He still struck out a batter per inning, but his walk rate (5.9 BB/9) was highest among starters and he was limited to just 101.1 frames due to biceps tendinitis and a right ankle sprain.

San Francisco could non-tender Sanchez, who MLBTradeRumors projects to pull down $5.2 million is his final season of arbitration eligibility. But the more likely scenario is that the Giants ship him to a club that finds the free agent market for starters unappealing and is willing to take a chance on Sanchez in hopes that he returns to health and keeps his walk rate under five per nine.

If Sanchez is going to return to form in 2012, he'll need to do a much better job of keeping right-handed hitters off the base paths. Righties got on base at a .372 clip against Sanchez in 2011. Among lefties who faced 300+ righty batters, only Brian Duensing, Phil Coke and Danny Duffy had higher opponent OBPs against those swinging from the opposite side.

Sanchez's problems with righties are two-fold. For one, his rather zipless fastball (89.7 mph average, down a tick from 2010) didn't miss as many bats and missed the strike zone more often. Right-handers came up empty 18 percent of the time they swung at Sanchez's fastball, compared to 21 percent the previous three seasons, and his percentage of strikes thrown with the pitch dipped to 59 percent from 62 percent over 2008-2010. Sanchez frequently missed to the arm side in 2011:

Sanchez's fastball location vs. right-handed hitters, 2011

His other main problem against righties was that he lost the feel for his breaking stuff. Sanchez threw his slider for a strike just 53 percent of the time against right-handers, well below his 62 percent average the previous three years. He located lots of sliders below batters' knees...

Sanchez's slider location vs. RHB, 2011

 ...But they weren't biting. Check out righty hitters' swing rate by pitch location against Sanchez's sliders, compared to the MLB average for lefty pitchers versus right-handed batters:

 Right-handed hitters' swing rate by pitch location vs. Sanchez's slider, 2011

League average swing rate vs. sliders for RHB vs. LHPRighties chased 30 percent of Sanchez's sliders off the plate in 2011, compared to 33 percent from '08 to '10 and the 36 percent big league average for LHP vs. RHB. That's a significant change, considering that Sanchez's percentage of sliders thrown in the zone fell from 48 percent from '08 to '10 to just 39 percent in 2011.

Sanchez's injury and control woes probably mean that he wouldn't bring back much more than salary relief and a C-level prospect in a trade. Given that likely lukewarm return, the Giants might be best off holding on to Sanchez instead of expecting a full season's workload form Eric Surkamp or a return to relevance from Barry Zito.

Lincecum's Ups and Downs

Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants pitched a strange game on Saturday night, Sept 3, 2011.  Facing the division rival Arizona Diamondbacks with a division race on the line, Tim struck out seven batters in five innings.  A high strikeout rate like that usually leads to few hits, as strikeouts limit the number of balls in play that can go for hits.  The Diamondbacks, however, managed hits on nine of 16 balls in play against Tim.  How did Lincecum manage to pitch both poorly and well in the same game?

Tha answer lies in location.  Tim usually gets his strikeouts on pitches that batters chase low out of the strike zone:

Tim Lincecum, pitch frequency on strikeouts, 2011.Saturday night, Tim's strikeouts were up:

Tim Lincecum, pitch frequency on strikeouts, 2011-09-03.This was his problem throughout the night.  His pitches were up in the hittable part of the strike zone:

 Tim Lincecum, pitch frequency, 2011-09-03.

Compare that to his frequency for the year.

Tim Lincecum, pitch frequency, 2011.Tim moves a batter's eyes up and down in the zone.  On Saturday, he mostly kept his pitches in a single plane.  It's a credit to his ability that even when he didn't have his best stuff, Lincecum was able to strike out seven.  That wasn't enough to overcome the phat pitches he left in the strike zone, however.

Carlos Beltran's West Coast Hacking

Seeking to upgrade a wheezing offense and hold off the Diamondbacks in the NL West standings, the Giants acquired Carlos Beltran from the Mets in late July. San Francisco paid a dear price for the switch-hitter's services, parting with top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler, but Beltran's impact bat figured to boost the Giants' chances of another playoff payday.

A little more than a month later, San Francisco now sits six games back of the D-Backs. And while Beltran batted .289 with a .391 OBP and a .513 slugging percentage in Queens, he has fallen victim to the Giants' team wide, Captain Trips-like offensive malaise. In 80 plate appearances, he's hitting just .260/.288/.377.

With 25 games left on the schedule, the Giants face a large, though not insurmountable deficit in the standings -- Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds give the club less than a one-in-five chance of clinching a playoff spot. If San Francisco is to have any chance of catching Arizona, they'll need Beltran to re-discover the plate patience that he seemingly left on the East Coast.

Beltran has drawn just three walks with the Giants. That's 3.8 percent of his plate appearances, compared to a 14.3 percent walk rate while with the Mets. Nearly three-quarters of his PA with his new team have come from the left side of the plate, and he's chasing lots of pitches thrown high out of the zone:

Beltran's swing rate by pitch location as LHB with Giants

As a right-handed hitter, he's going after pitches thrown inside:

Beltran's swing rate by pitch location as RHB with GiantsOverall, Beltran has chased 38 percent of pitches thrown out of the zone since his trade to San Francisco. To put that in perspective, that chase rate is in Yuniesky Betancourt/Alex Gonzalez territory and is a full 10 percentage points above the league average. Who knows, maybe Beltran started taking swing tips from Miguel Tejada and Aaron Rowand.