The Faster the Knuckler, The Better for Dickey

Robert Allen Dickey is 38 years old, has no ulnar collateral ligament and tops out at 86 miles per hour on the radar gun. Based on those facts, Dickey sounds like a third starter in the Frontier League. Yet the man who scaled Mt. Kilimanjaro has now reached the apex of the pitching profession, winning the 2012 NL Cy Young Award. The genesis of Dickey's dancing knuckleball has been well-documented, but here's something you might not know: The faster Dickey throws his knuckler, the better.

Dickey threw his knuckleball between 66 MPH and 83 MPH during the 2012 season, though he almost always hit at least 70 MPH on the gun. His slower knuckleballs actually got crushed. As he increased the knuckler's speed, however, his strike rate soared and his opponent slugging percentage plummeted:

Dickey's knuckleball by pitch velocity

Velocity	Pct. Thrown	Opponent Slugging Pct.	Strike Pct.
70-74 MPH	13	.712	63.7
75-79 MPH	71.1	.345	67.1
80+ MPH	15.9	.251	73.5

Dickey got such fantastic results with his faster knuckleballs in part because hitters chased those pitches far off the plate. Check out hitters' swing rate by pitch location against Dickey's knuckleball, broken down by velocity. They couldn't help themselves against faster flutterballs, particularly those thrown high out of the strike zone:

Hitters' swing rate by pitch location against Dickey's 70-74 MPH knuckleballs

Hitters' swing rate by pitch location against Dickey's 75-79 MPH knuckleballs

Hitters' swing rate by pitch location against Dickey's 80+ MPH knuckleballs

When Dickey tossed a knuckleball between 70-74 MPH, hitters chased out of the zone about 19 percent of the time. That chase rate climbed to 32% on knuckleballs thrown between 75-79 MPH, and shot up to 48% on knucklers thrown at 80+ MPH. Holy Niekro!

Bay Done in By Fastballs

"I still feel I have plenty to give to this game and that I can play baseball at a high level...I’m excited to keep playing and have no intention of just walking away."  -- Jason Bay

The last time Jason Bay hit the free agent market, he parlayed a 36-homer season with the Red Sox in 2009 into a four-year, $66 million deal with the Mets. Bay is back on the market after parting ways with New York, but he'll only get 66 this time around if that's the uni number he's assigned as a non-roster invitee this spring.

The 34-year-old, felled by post-concussion symptoms and cracked ribs during his time in Queens, is coming off a 2012 season in which he batted .165, got on base at a .237 clip and slugged .299 in 215 plate appearances. His 47 OPS+ was the worst by a Mets hitter getting 200+ plate appearances in a season since Joe McEwing (44 OPS+) in 2002. For Bay to be even a shadow of the stealth star he was with the Pirates and Red Sox, he'll need to start turning on some fastballs.

Check out Bay's slugging percentage by pitch location against fastballs since 2009. He was a monster against heaters in 2009, slugging .598...

Bay's slugging percentage by pitch location vs. fastballs, 2009

During his first year with the Mets, Bay clubbed fastballs left over the heart of the plate and also did damage on pitches thrown at the knees. Even so, his fastball slugging percentage dipped to .477...

Bay's slugging percentage by pitch location vs. fastballs, 2010

Save for the occasional high fastball, he wasn't much of a threat against fastballs in 2011 while slugging .444...

Bay's slugging percentage by pitch location vs. fastballs, 2011

This past year, Bay's heat map was an ocean of blue. Bay slugged just .323 against fastballs:

Bay's slugging percentage by pitch location vs. fastballs, 2012

As Bay became an easy out on fastballs, pitchers pounced. Pitchers threw Bay a fastball over the plate 49.8% of the time in 2009, 53.2% in 2010, 53.5% in 2011 and 55.7% in 2012 (the MLB average is 51.3% over that time frame). There's no need to be timid when the most Bay can do with a fastball most days is hit an occasional single.

Hopefully, Bay can overcome his ailments and re-establish himself as a major leaguer. If not, he can proudly walk away with over $80 million in career earnings and the highest career value (21.8 Wins Above Replacement) of any 22nd-round draft pick this side of John Smoltz and Andy Pettitte.

Robinson Cano and the Long Ball

New York Yankee Robinson Cano put on quite a show last night as he outdueled Adrian Gonzalez (BOS) in the final round of the HR Derby, winning it with 32 total HRs.  His 12 homers in the final round set a record for the derby.

Playing for the Yankees, a team that has big sluggers like Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, Cano's power sometimes gets short shrift.  But after last night, it will be hard for anyone to ignore his long ball proclivity.

Cano seemed more than comfortable having his father, Jose Cano, throw to him last night.  While BP pitchers usually soft toss fastballs one after another, one wonders if Cano could have produced even more HRs last night if he was facing sliders.

Since 2009, Robinson Cano has hit more HRs off sliders than any AL batter with 21, and second behind fellow HR Derby contestant and former derby winner Prince Fielder (MIL), who has 23.  Those 21 homers tie the number he has hit off fastballs in that same span of time.  His 8.0 HR% on sliders (highest among any pitches he has seen since 2009) ranks 5th in baseball behind Jason Giambi (9.1%), Russell Branyan (9.0%), Prince Fielder (8.3%), and Hideki Matsui (8.3%).

Since the 2010 All-Star Break, Cano has hit 11 HRs off sliders, best in the league.  He has a 27.5% HR/FB rate on sliders, ranking him in the top 4% of the league.    And his 11.0 HR% on sliders in that time is best among all major league hitters, even Jose Bautista (10.4 HR%).

If Cano is looking to top last night's performance in next year's home run derby, perhaps Jose will break out the slider in Kansas City.