Corey Hart Crushing It

Milwaukee Brewer Corey Hart currently holds the highest wOBA (.569) in the National League heading into Friday action.

All 2012 pitches to Corey Hart through April 12th (click to enlarge)Despite opposing pitchers' best efforts to keep the ball away from Hart, he's managed a .941 slugging percentage while going 6 for 17 with 3 home runs.

Corey Hart 2012 through April 12th (Click to enlarge)Hart has made the most with the few pitches that have floated up in the zone. Last season he hit .289 with a .518 SLG on pitches up, while just .219 with a .368 SLG on pitches down. Expect pitchers to avoid Hart's hot spots by keeping the ball down, or trying to get him to chase outside.

Greinke's Many Curveballs

A free agent after the 2012 season, Zack Greinke is on the cusp of signing a mega free agent deal. The Brewers righty is 28 years old and has proven to be one of the game's best, most durable starters over the past four seasons. Greinke ranks 12th among starting pitchers in both ERA+ (126) and Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement (17.2) since 2008, easily topping 200 innings from 2008-2010 before falling short this past year after cracking a rib during a pickup hoops game.

But I'm guessing Greinke already knew those things. He's currently representing himself, after all, and he might throw the league a curve by going into free agency agentless. Greinke is no stranger to throwing others for a loop -- just take a look at his curveball.

Greinke has thrown his curve at an average of 74.8 mph since 2008, but that doesn't tell the whole story. He really has about five or six different curves, thrown at anywhere from 59 mph all the way up to 87 mph. Take a look at Greinke's curveball distribution, by speed:

Curveball Speed	Pct. Of Total Curves Thrown
Less than 60 mph	0.3%
61-65 mph	3.0%
66-70 mph	17.0%
71-75 mph	32.3%
76-80 mph	24.3%
81+ mph	23.1%

Greinke uses his slow, medium and fast curveballs for different purposes. At the far ends of the spectrum, his slow, looping curve thrown at 61-65 mph and his power curve at 81+ mph are thrown out of the strike zone and are used to get chases. From 66-80 mph, Greinke throws his curve for strikes:

Curveball Speed	Pct. Thrown in Strike Zone	Chase Pct.
61-65 mph	34%	29%
66-70 mph	49%	22%
71-75 mph	56%	18%
76-80 mph	52%	23%
81+ mph	36%	42%

As you might expect, Greinke uses his slow (61-65 mph) and power (81+ mph) curves when he's ahead of the hitter. Seventy percent of his slow curves have been thrown in pitcher's counts, and 60 percent of his power curves.

If he gets through 2012 intact, Greinke could be looking at a $100 million contract next winter -- we just don't know where he'll sign or who will negotiate that pact. GMs, like hitters, are left wondering what Greinke will do next.

Brewers Sign A-Ram

Sans Prince Fielder, the Brewers will to struggle to stay among the National League's top five clubs in run scoring (and that's to say nothing of Ryan Braun's possible 50-game suspension for a failed PED test). Bringing in Aramis Ramirez on a three-year deal reportedly worth $36 million won't compensate, but A-Ram is at least a sizeable upgrade over what Milwaukee got from its third basemen in 2010 (which is to say, nothing).

In 2011, Brewers third basemen -- primarily now-Pirate Casey McGehee -- batted .231/.290/.345 and had a .279 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA). Ramirez, meanwhile, is coming off a resurgent season during which he hit .306/.361/.510, with a .371 wOBA. A-Ram struggled with injuries and bad luck in balls put in play in 2010, slashing just .241/.294/.452 with a .245 BABIP while battling thumb and triceps ailments. With better health and bat control this past year, Ramirez made more contact on inside pitches and did a better job covering the outer third as well. Check out his contact rate by pitch location in 2010 and 2011:

Ramirez' contact rate by pitch location, 2010

Ramirez's contact rate by pitch location, 2011

Ramirez's missed 23 percent of the pitches he swung at in 2010, but that fell to 18 percent in 2011. Consequently, his strikeout rate dipped from 17.8% to 11%. His BABIP bumped back up to .308, due mostly to more hits on inside pitches and those straddling the outside corner of the plate: 

Ramirez's in-play average by pitch location, 2010

Ramirez's in-play average by pitch location, 2011

Ramirez is an aggressive hitter who has never walked much, he's 33 years old and he's one of the worst defensive third basemen in the game, having cost his club 19 runs over the past three years according to Ultimate Zone Rating. But he's still serious power threat who will be much better than McGehee was in 2011 and is projected to be in 2012 (a .313 wOBA, according to The Hardball Times' Oliver). Ramirez joins a revamped Brew Crew infield with just one incumbent starter in Rickie Weeks. How does the new-look infield compare offensively to last year's version? Here's a look at last year's starters, and 2012 Oliver projections for Ramirez, Alex Gonzalez, Weeks and Mat Gamel:

Gamel, 27, is coming off a .310/.372/.540 season at Triple-A Nashville, but he's obviously no Fielder. Over the course of a full season, the offensive difference between what Fielder did last year and what Gamel is forecast to hit is a staggering 45 runs. However, upgrading from McGehee '11 to A-Ram in '12 is projected to be about a 35 run improvement. In other words, they lose 10 runs, or about a win, in offensive value compared to 2011. Of course, losing Braun for nearly a third of the season could easily cost the Brewers another 1-2 wins on offense.

Ramirez probably shouldn't be playing third base these days and his bat doesn't make up for Fielder's departure. That said, he gives them another quality hitter to at least partially ease the loss and make another run at the NL Central title before Zack Greinke hits the open market. It's hardly a coup, but it's a decent short-term solution for a team whose window of contention may soon close.