The Fernando Rodney Difference

It is uncommon for the Tampa Bay Rays to have a reliever to lead the team in saves for successive seasons.

Rays Saves leaders since 2000

Player	SV	Year
Fernando Rodney	48	2012
Kyle Farnsworth	25	2011
Rafael Soriano	45	2010
J.P. Howell	17	2009
Troy Percival	28	2008
Alberto Reyes	26	2007
Tyler Walker	10	2006
Danys Baez	41	2005
Danys Baez	30	2004
Lance Carter	26	2003
Esteban Yan	19	2002
Esteban Yan	22	2001
Roberto Hernandez	32	2000

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/19/2013.

Usually, the Rays anoint a new closer each season but this year Tampa went right back to Fernando Rodney who was successful for them last year converting 48 of 50 save opportunities.

But this season, he has already been denied shooting his imaginary arrow into the save-osphere, blowing three saves in 10 opportunities.

The ugliest blown save of the season may have occurred this past Thursday night when he entered the game with a 3-1 lead over the Boston Red Sox in the top of the 9th and issued a career-high three consecutive walks before Will Middlebrooks lined a bases-clearing double that blew the save and resulted in a 4-3 Rays loss.

The 2012 All-Star closer was missing the strike zone by a lot and over-throwing his fastball in the hopes of closing out this game.

2012 vs 2013

Rodney is a very different pitcher this season. Not only had Rodney led American League in saves in 2012 and he had a 0.78 ERA and a 0.777 WHIP. This season, he has a 5.28 ERA and a 1.761 WHIP.

• In 2012, he pitched 74.2 innings, allowed nine runs, walked 15, and he gave up two homers. In 2013, he has pitched 15.1 innings, allowed nine runs, walked 15, and he has given up two homers.

Rodney pitched for the Dominican Republic in the 2013 World Baseball Classic and you have to wonder if it took its toll in terms of velocity and control.

Rodney is a fastball/change-up pitcher

2012

In 2012, Rodney averaged 96 mph on his fastball, with a high of 100.4, and a low of 91.4. Batters hit .248 against it with two homers, 19 whiffs, and nine walks.

In 2012, Rodney averaged 82.5 mph on his change, a 13.5 mph differential, with a high of 88.7, and a low of 78.2

Batters hit .070 against it with no homers, 55 whiffs, and five walks.

2013

In 2013, Rodney has averaged 95.9 mph on his fastball, basically the same as last season, but you can see his location is nowhere as effective as last season, drifting lower in the zone.

He has hit a high of 100.1, and a low of 90.5. Batters are hitting .365 against it with one homer, six whiffs, and six walks.

In 2013, Rodney has averaged 84.2 mph on his change, an 11.7 mph differential, with a high of 84.2, and a low of 78.7

Batters have hit .094 against it with one homer, 17 whiffs, and eight walks.

As you can see, the reduced speed differential and less precise placement of the change is making both his change and fastball less effective.

Let's quantify that further

• In 2012, batters swung at 50.1% of Rodney's change-ups; in 2013, it's 46.4%. 
• In 2012, 70.4% of Rodney's change-ups were strikes or in play; in 2013, it's 60.6%. 
• In 2012, batters swung at 50.1% of Rodney's change-ups; in 2013, it's 46.4%. 
• In 2012, batters chased 42.5% of Rodney's change-ups; in 2013, it's 35.1%. 
• In 2012, 40.6% of Rodney's change-ups were called strikes; in 2013, it's 28.4%.

You get the feeling that Joe Maddon and Jim Hickey, the brilliant pitching coach for the Rays, won't let this continue much further. Invariably, the Rays don't have room for error and can't afford a shaky closer. If Rodney is unable to sharpen his control and spread the speed differential between his two pitches, don't be surprised if the Rays seek an alternative closer. 

90/30 Pitchers

It would be a good debate to decide who is more specialized: a closer or a DH?

On the one hand, a closer does all the things a pitcher does, just infrequently and briefly.

On the other hand, a DH basically only does one thing: hits.

Perhaps this is a reason why Lee Smith and Edgar Martinez are still waiting for a call from Cooperstown.

The role of bullpen pitchers have become more and more specialized with closers basically restricted to the 9th inning and teams attempting to more and more compartmentalize their 8th and 7th inning pitchers.

Last season, there were 15 pitchers with at least 30 saves. None threw more innings than Fernando Rodney.

Rk	Player	IP	SV	Tm
1	Fernando Rodney	74.2	48	TBR
2	Tyler Clippard	72.2	32	WSN
3	Jason Motte	72.0	42	STL
4	Aroldis Chapman	71.2	38	CIN
5	Jonathan Papelbon	70.0	38	PHI
6	John Axford	69.1	35	MIL
7	Jose Valverde	69.0	35	DET
8	Jim Johnson	68.2	51	BAL
9	Rafael Soriano	67.2	42	NYY
10	Joe Nathan	64.1	37	TEX
11	Craig Kimbrel	62.2	42	ATL
12	Joel Hanrahan	59.2	36	PIT
13	Chris Perez	57.2	39	CLE
14	Rafael Betancourt	57.2	31	COL
15	J.J. Putz	54.1	32	ARI

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/4/2013.

Does that seem like a lot of innings or a few?

Here's some perspective: Over the last 20 seasons 389 relievers have accrued 30 saves in a season. Rodney's 74.2 IP puts him in a tie with five other pitchers for 121st on the list.

Reaching the 30-save mark is becoming less of a noteworthy feat.

Rk	Year	#
1	2011	19
2	2006	19
3	2005	19
4	2007	18
5	2002	18
6	1996	18
7	1999	17
8	1998	17
9	2009	16
10	2004	16
11	2000	16
12	2012	15
13	2008	15
14	1997	15
15	2010	14
16	2001	14
17	1995	13
18	1993	13
19	1991	13
20	2003	12
21	1992	12
22	1990	11
23	1989	10
24	1988	8
25	1987	7
26	1984	7
27	1986	6
28	1985	6
29	1983	3
30	1994	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/4/2013.

But throwing 90+ innings and earning 30+ saves is truly becoming a rarity.

The last one to do it being Ryan Dempster in 2005. That season, Dempster made 57 relief appearances throwing 58.1 innings, and six starts with 33.2 IP.

Rk	Year	#
1	1984	6	Bill Caudill / Willie Hernandez / Dan Quisenberry / Dave Righetti / Lee Smith / Bruce Sutter
2	1985	5	Willie Hernandez / Bob James / Donnie Moore / Dan Quisenberry / Lee Smith
3	1987	3	Tom Henke / Dave Righetti / Todd Worrell
4	1986	3	Dave Righetti / Lee Smith / Todd Worrell
5	2002	2	Danny Graves / Billy Koch
6	2000	2	Danny Graves / Derek Lowe
7	1988	2	Bobby Thigpen / Todd Worrell
8	1983	2	Dan Quisenberry / Bob Stanley
9	2005	1	Ryan Dempster
10	1997	1	Jeff Shaw
11	1992	1	Doug Jones
12	1991	1	Jeff Montgomery
13	1989	1	Mark Davis

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/4/2013.

Here are the 28 pitchers since 1983 who have thrown 90+ innings and earned 30+ saves

Rk	Player	Year	SV	IP	Tm	G
1	Billy Koch	2002	44	93.2	OAK	84
2	Derek Lowe	2000	42	91.1	BOS	74
3	Danny Graves	2000	30	91.1	CIN	66
4	Jeff Shaw	1997	42	94.2	CIN	78
5	Doug Jones	1992	36	111.2	HOU	80
6	Jeff Montgomery	1991	33	90.0	KCR	67
7	Mark Davis	1989	44	92.2	SDP	70
8	Bobby Thigpen	1988	34	90.0	CHW	68
9	Todd Worrell	1988	32	90.0	STL	68
10	Todd Worrell	1987	33	94.2	STL	75
11	Dave Righetti	1987	31	95.0	NYY	60
12	Tom Henke	1987	34	94.0	TOR	72
13	Todd Worrell	1986	36	103.2	STL	74
14	Lee Smith	1986	31	90.1	CHC	66
15	Dave Righetti	1986	46	106.2	NYY	74
16	Lee Smith	1985	33	97.2	CHC	65
17	Dan Quisenberry	1985	37	129.0	KCR	84
18	Donnie Moore	1985	31	103.0	CAL	65
19	Bob James	1985	32	110.0	CHW	69
20	Willie Hernandez	1985	31	106.2	DET	74
21	Bill Caudill	1984	36	96.1	OAK	68
22	Willie Hernandez	1984	32	140.1	DET	80
23	Dan Quisenberry	1984	44	129.1	KCR	72
24	Dave Righetti	1984	31	96.1	NYY	64
25	Lee Smith	1984	33	101.0	CHC	69
Rk	Player	Year	SV	IP	Tm	G
26	Bruce Sutter	1984	45	122.2	STL	71
27	Bob Stanley	1983	33	145.1	BOS	64
28	Dan Quisenberry	1983	45	139.0	KCR	69

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/4/2013.

Fernando Rodney, Elite Closer(!)?

Few analysts applauded when Tampa Bay Rays inked Fernando Rodney over the winter to close games. While Rodney had nearly 90 career saves to his name, he was also coming off a season with the Angels in which he walked more batters than he struck out and held a career ERA+ (101) right around the league average. That's hardly the stuff of late-inning gunslinging, and the move seemingly didn't jive with the Rays' typically stat-savvy approach.

But, as ESPN SweetSpot's David Schoenfield notes, the crooked-capped Rodney has been lights-out in Tampa:

You know, Fernando Rodney has never really been that good. He had 44 good innings for the Tigers in 2005 and he was tough to hit in 2006, when he had a 3.52 ERA. But from 2007 through 2011, he posted a 4.42 ERA, hardly impressive for a relief pitcher, and allowed a ton of baserunners (1.50 WHIP) as he always walked too many batters (5.2 walks per 9). He lucked into 37 saves for the Tigers in 2009 despite a 4.40 ERA and other uninspiring numbers (41 walks, 61 strikeouts, eight home runs in 75.2 innings).

So of course the Angels gave him $11 million, and then were surprised when it turned he was wild and ineffective.

And then the Tampa Bay Rays signed him. The Rays are always in search of power arms for their bullpen. Sure enough, Kyle Farnsworth gets hurt, Joe Maddon decides to sort of make Rodney his closer, he starts throwing strikes for the first time in his career and now he's 2-0 with 11 saves, no blown saves, no extra-base hits allowed and a .232 opponents' OBP, more than 100 points below his .342 career mark.

Rodney has struck out 19 hitters in 18.2 frames, while also walking just two batters unintentionally and getting lots of ground balls (55 percent of pitches put in play). With 0.8 Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement, Rodney has already provided twice as much value for his club this year than he did from 2006-2011 combined.

While the big dip in walks might suggest that Rodney is suddenly pounding the strike zone, that's not really the case. His percentage of pitches thrown in the zone has climbed, from 46 percent to 48 percent, but that's about average for relief pitchers. The bigger change is that Rodney's mid-90s fastball and low-80s changeup are getting more swings on pitches thrown off the plate:

Pitch	2011 Chase Pct.	2012 Chase Pct.	Avg. for Relievers
Fastball	27.6	33.7	26.6
Changeup	30.6	39.4	35.6
Overall	28.9	34.6	28.5

Most of those extra chases are coming on pitches thrown to the glove side, either well off the outside corner to lefties or just below the knees. Take a look at hitters' swing rate by pitch location versus Rodney during his disastrous 2011, and then in 2012:

Hitters' swing rate by pitch location vs. Rodney, 2011

Hitters' swing rate by pitch location vs. Rodney, 2012

Those chases on arm-side pitches are also leading to many more swings and misses. Look at Rodney's opponent contact rate by pitch location last year, and then in 2012:

Hitters' contact rate by pitch location vs. Rodney, 2011

Hitters' swing rate by pitch location vs. Rodney, 2012

Hitters have an overall miss rate of 32 percent against Rodney's stuff this year, well above his 21 percent mark in 2011 and the 24 percent average for relievers.

It's too early to declare Rodney an elite reliever after a month and a half, considering he put up middling numbers over the past decade. But right now, he looks nothing like the big-on-stuff, short-on-results slacker that frustrated talent evaluators in Detroit in L.A. Score another one for Andrew Friedman and company.