Looking When it Counts

White there are plenty of selective hitters in Major League Baseball, there is one count in which batters need to take with certainty, 3-2.  Take a ball and in that count and win a free pass to first base, take a strike and walk back to the dugout.  During the last four seasons, 101 players took at least 100 pitches on a 3-2 count.  The following table shows the hitters who took the highest percentage of walks, or taking ball four:

Batter	Strikeout %	Walk %
Albert Pujols	9.4%	90.6%
Brian Roberts	8.5%	90.6%
Dustin Pedroia	8.7%	90.4%
Adrian Gonzalez	9.9%	90.1%
Joey Votto	11.0%	89.0%
Miguel Cabrera	10.3%	89.0%
David Ortiz	11.0%	88.4%
Derek Jeter	11.4%	87.9%
Luke Scott	11.4%	87.6%
Andrew McCutchen	12.5%	87.5%

I'm not surprised that sluggers like Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez and Joey Votto are near the top of the list.  Often, pitchers will work carefully to these batters, since throwing the a strike might result in a home run.  It's better to try to get them to chase an outside pitch, but these sluggers have an excellent eye for the strike zone.

Note that along with the sluggers are table setters like Dustin Pedroia and Derek Jeter. Their ability to work the count and draw walks makes them so valuable at the top of the order.  You may also notice that the Red Sox stock up on players with great strikeout judgement, as three of these hitters currently reisde in Boston.

At the other end of the spectrum are the hitters who strike out quite often.

Batter	Strikeout %	Walk %
Drew Stubbs	28.4%	70.6%
Andruw Jones	26.2%	73.8%
Mike Cameron	25.0%	75.0%
Troy Tulowitzki	23.8%	76.2%
Jack Cust	22.1%	77.9%
Jorge Posada	22.0%	77.1%
B. J. Upton	21.7%	77.9%
David DeJesus	21.6%	78.4%
Hanley Ramirez	21.6%	77.8%
Dexter Fowler	21.6%	77.6%

Note that there are a number of good, or formerly good hitters in this list.  Jorge Posada saw his hitting prowess fade this season, but he still reached base at a good clip the last few years.  Troy Tulowitzki rates as the outstanding hitting shortstop in the majors, and Hanley Ramirez held that distinction in previous seasons.  With the exception of B.J. Upton, these are players that are very good, but have more flaws that the group at the top.  It seems that the willingness to take on 3-2 indicates a selective hitter, regardless of how well the 3-2 looks turns out.

Jeter's Needed Rest

Derek Jeter of the New York Yankees improved his hitting since coming off the disabled list on July 4th.  Before the injury, Derek could not hit the fastball, producing a .248/.323/.326 slash line on the pitch.  If you look at his in play average heat map and spray chart, it becomes very clear that Jeter could not pull the pitch:

Derek Jeter vs. the fastball, 2011 season through June 13th.As Jeter ages, his bat speed should slow, making pulling hard pitches more difficult.  After spending three weeks on the disabled list, however, Jeter is pulling the ball more:

Derek Jeter vs. the fastball, 2011 season, July 4 to August 9.Jeter's offense dropped in 2010, and he worked on his hitting quite a bit over the winter and all through spring training.  Could it be he worked too much and wore down?  Since returning, Derek's slash line against the fastball stands at .339/.409/.407.  He's also getting hits to leftfield again.  Maybe his contract won't be a burden after all.

Derek Jeter's Hit Types

Derek Jeter 2011 Hit Type

	%	AVG	BABIP	SLG	HR%	wOBA
Line Drive	10.0%	.250	.200	.250	0.0%	.180
Fly Ball	10.0%	.200	.200	.200	0.0%	.180
Ground Ball	76.0%	.289	.289	.316	0.0%	.269
Pop Up	2.0%	.000	.000	.000	0.0%	.000
Total In Play	100.0%	.265	.260	.286	0.0%	.241
Total	100.0%	.241	.260	.259	0.0%	.268

Although it's only been 61 plate appearances into 2011, Derek Jeter(NYY) seems to be picking up where he left off last season. His ground ball tendencies seem to be intensifying and even when he does get under a ball, he doesn't get much distance on it. In case you happened to notice, bunt data is not included in the chart which is why the percentages don't add up to 100.

Since Jeter's major hitting woes appeared to begin in 2010, here's his combined 2010 and 2011 hit type data, followed by his prior two seasons.

Derek Jeter 2010-2011 Hit Type

	%	AVG	BABIP	SLG	HR%	wOBA
Line Drive	15.9%	.660	.640	.920	2.0%	.669
Fly Ball	16.2%	.294	.229	.686	7.8%	.392
Ground Ball	65.5%	.245	.245	.260	0.0%	.226
Pop Up	1.2%	.000	.000	.000	0.0%	.000
Total In Play	100.0%	.318	.305	.431	1.6%	.322
Total	100.0%	.267	.305	.362	1.3%	.314

Derek Jeter 2008-2009 Hit Type

	%	AVG	BABIP	SLG	HR%	wOBA
Line Drive	19.8%	.756	.747	.977	2.3%	.753
Fly Ball	20.3%	.308	.209	.790	12.1%	.437
Ground Ball	57.0%	.267	.267	.273	0.0%	.242
Pop Up	1.5%	.059	.059	.059	0.0%	.053
Total In Play	100.0%	.373	.352	.518	2.9%	.380
Total	100.0%	.319	.352	.444	2.5%	.366

Watching Jeter hit has been pretty frustrating over the last year. The ground ball tendencies wouldn't be so annoying if he was making better contact overall. The drop in average on his line drives has been a big problem for Jeter. Since he's not really a home run hitter, he relies more on liners to prop up his average and power numbers. Jeter's .640 BAbip on line drives since the start of the 2010 season puts him in the bottom 8% of all major league hitters. I'd love to say that he's hit a rough patch of luck, but it's just not the case.

Derek Jeter Contact & SLG% (Click to enlarge)

I posted Jeter's contact graphics a few months ago but I figure they're worth revisiting. The one area he tends to hit the ball well is also the area he has been making less contact. If Jeter is experiencing an overall drop in bat speed, it would explain why he's making less contact in his power zone, as well as why his ground ball and line drive averages are down. The balls he puts in play would not be hit as hard, making it a lot easier for opposing defenses to field and convert them into outs. I'm not saying this is the case, but it would certainly explain a lot.