Reds Get Marshall at High Cost

The Cincinnati Reds swapped some highly-regarded but partially redundant prospects to get top-of-the-rotation arm Mat Latos from the San Diego Padres last week, and now the club has acquired a Francisco Cordero replacement by getting Sean Marshall from the Chicago Cubs for Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes. Marshall is a big upgrade at the back of the bullpen and is cheap in 2012, but the Cubs may ultimately win this deal by getting an underappreciated starter under team control for years to come.

A sixth-round pick in the '03 draft out of Virginia Commonwealth, Marshall was an unremarkable starter with the Cubs in 2006 and 2007 and a swingman the next two years, but he has since emerged as a high-strikeout ground ball machine as a full-time reliever. The 6-foot-7 lefty has 10.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 56% ground ball rate in 150.1 innings pitched over the 2010-11 seasons, ranking 10th among all 'pen arms with 4.4 Wins Above Replacement. Tyler Clippard, Jonny Venters and Matt Belisle are the only relievers to log more innings.

While Marshall's fastball doesn't get much past 90 on the gun, he complements it with a quality cutter and what might be the best curveball among relievers. Marshall's high-70s bender, thrown nearly 40% of the time, has silenced hitters to the tune of a .194 average and a .236 slugging percentage over the past two years. The overall averages for curveballs from relievers are .201 for average and .299 for slugging percentage.

Marshall has uncanny control and command of his curve. He has thrown 51% of his curveballs in the strike zone -- way above the 43% average -- and he rarely hangs a cookie high in the strike zone:

Location of Marshall's curveball, 2010-2011Just 11% of Marshall's curves were tossed high in the zone in 2010-2011, compared to the 18% average for relievers. All those well-placed breaking balls result in whiffs (hitters miss 38% of the time they swing, one of the top 15 rates among relievers) and grounders (Marshall's 55 GB% is in the top 20).

So Marshall is nails, and he'll earn only $3.1 million next year -- also known as "what Jonathan Papelbon will make by May." But Marshall can chase his own free agent riches after 2012, and in acquiring him the Reds weakened their rotation depth. Sure, Cincy can point to a one-through-five of Latos, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey and Bronson Arroyo. Rotation plans have a way of exploding like a cheap ACME bomb, however, and their options are murky after that.

Aroldis Chapman's conversion may be waylaid by a sore shoulder. Sam LeCure dealt with a forearm injury last year, and Matt Maloney was claimed off waivers by the Twins. On average, MLB teams called on 9-10 different pitchers to start in 2011. It would be quixotic to think the Reds' rotation, with Latos, Cueto and Bailey all serving DL stints for shoulder ailments last year (and Arroyo's ego getting wounded by so many big flies), won't need extra arms. Unless the Reds are OK spending real cash on a free agent starter, they're stuck scraping at the bottom of the barrel with the Jon Garlands and Brad Pennys of the world.

Which brings us to Wood, an undersized southpaw who won't hit free agency until after the 2016 season. Twenty-five in February, Wood pitched better as a rookie in 2010 (7.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.42 FIP in 102.2 innings pitched) than as a sophomore (6.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 4.06 FIP in 106 innings), but a 65 point swing in his batting average on balls in play made the difference look more extreme (3.51 ERA in 2010, 4.84 ERA in 2011).

Wood has a kitchen-sink approach, flinging changeups, curveballs, cutters and sliders as well as a fastball that crosses 90 on a windy day. Perhaps because hitters aren't quite sure what they're going to get, Wood's fastball has been sneaky good. Opponents have hit .259 and slugged .385 against the pitch over the 2010-11 seasons, while starters have allowed opponents to hit .278 and slug .440 versus fastballs over that time frame. He's not bashful about going up the ladder...

Location of Wood's fastball, 2010-2011

...And his high heat is highly successful despite its lack of velocity...

Opponent in-play slugging percentage by pitch location vs. Wood's fastball, 2010-2011

Wood has held hitters to a .355 slugging percentage on fastballs thrown high in the zone, 30 points below the league average for starters. It's very rare for low-octane fastball like Wood's to fare so well high in the zone. Take a look at the average slugging percentage on high fastballs, by velocity. The more zip you've got, the better off you are:

88-90 mph: .427 slugging percentage

91-93 mph:  .375 slugging percentage

94-96 mph: .315 slugging percentage

96+ mph: .239 slugging percentage

Marshall is a superb reliever. But The Hardball Times' projection system, Oliver, expects Wood to out-WAR him in 2012 (2.5 to 2), to say nothing of the four years after that when Marshall will get paid like the top late-inning option that he is and Wood will draw just a fraction of his free-agent worth. Wood's projected WAR total next year tops that of Arroyo and Bailey, too, and he won't be there as an option when the Reds inevitably need a sixth, seventh and eighth starter. The prospects also going Chicago's way aren't elite, but Sappelt (.313/.377/.458 at Triple-A Louisville in 2011) could be a decent extra outfielder, and Torreyes (.356/.398/.457 at Low-A Dayton) is a tiny teenage middle infielder with a promising bat.

It's a lot to pay for one year of Marshall, durable and dominant as he is. Chicago, meanwhile, should get credit for cashing Marshall's one year of remaining team control in to get some assets that could be part of the next competitive Cubs club.

Can Stewart, Colvin Solve Soft Stuff?

The Cubs and Rockies completed a four-player challenge trade this past Thursday, as Chicago picked up third baseman Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers while Colorado acquired outfielder Tyler Colvin and infielder DJ LeMahieu.

Weathers, the eighth overall pick in the '07 draft, has walked over seven batters per nine innings in the minors and walked over a batter per inning in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. LeMahieu has good contact ability, if little power, and can man second or third base. But this move may ultimately boil down to a challenge trade of failed first-round position player prospects who haven't been able to solve soft stuff -- curveballs, sliders and changeups -- at the major league level.

Stewart (taken 10th overall in 2003) peaked at #4 on Baseball America's top 100 list prior to the 2005 season, ranked in the top 50 each of the next three years and performed decently with the Rockies as a rookie in 2008. He never built upon that decent start, though, and now holds a .236/.323/.428 career line in over 1,400 plate appearances. Adjusting for Coors, his on-base plus slugging percentage is 11 percent below average (89 OPS+). Colvin, meanwhile, was considered an overdraft at #13 in 2006 as the Cubs wanted to save cash to persuade Jeff Samardzija to give up football. Colvin did rate as high as #75 on BA's prospect list before 2008 and ran into 20 balls in 2010 before a bat impaled his chest, but he also bombed in 2011 and has a .215/.274/.422 triple-slash and an 84 OPS+ in 600+ PA.

In both cases, these prospects-turned-suspects haven't been able to handle breaking and off-speed stuff. Despite taking lots of cuts at Coors, Stewart's .211/.266/.371 performance against curveballs, sliders and changeups is worse than the .235/.278/.371 MLB average for non-pitchers since 2008. Colvin has been downright awful against soft stuff, with a .189/.218/.375 line.

Stewart hasn't been a total hacker against soft stuff, with a 35 percent chase rate that's pretty close to the 33 percent MLB average, but contact has been a problem. He has swung and missed 35 percent of the time against sliders, curves and a changeups, compared to the 28-29% average. Check out his contact rate by pitch location versus soft stuff, compared to the league average. Unless the pitch is right down Broadway, he's whiffing often:

Stewart's contact rate vs. soft stuff by pitch location, 2008-2011

Average contact rate vs. soft stuff by pitch location, 2008-2011

Colvin has whiffed even more against soft pitches -- 37 percent from 2009 to 2011. While Stewart at least shows about average strike zone discipline against breaking and offspeed pitches, Colvin is like a sugar-crazed kid trying to crack open a piñata. Here's his swing rate by pitch location vs. soft stuff, and then the league average:

Colvin's swing rate vs. soft stuff by pitch location, 2009-2011Average swing rate vs. soft stuff by pitch location, 2009-2011Colivn has chased 49 percent of soft pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. The only hitters to go fishing more often since 2009 are Humberto Quintero, Pablo Sandoval, Vladimir Guerrero and Dewayne Wise.  Wisely, pitchers rarely throw Colvin soft stuff over the plate: opponents have tossed a slider, curve or changeup in the zone just 39 percent of the time, way below the 45 percent average.

Stewart, 27 in April, seems to have a clearer path to playing time and possible redemption than Colvin. He'll likely get the 2012 season to show he can improve his performance against slower offerings and offer enough bat to complement his quality defense at third base. Aramis Ramirez is gone, and prospect Josh Vitters has his own strike-zone issues to hash out before he's ready for the show. Colvin, also 27, gets to swing a mile above sea level, but the Rockies have Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith, non-tender candidate Ryan Spilborghs and prospects Charlie Blackmon and Tim Wheeler in the mix as well. If either player is to make good on his former promise, he'll have to make huge strides against the soft stuff.

Epstein, Hoyer Buy Low on DeJesus

In the first significant signing of the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer era in Chicago, the Cubs brought in David DeJesus on a two-year, $10 million deal with a club option for the 2014 season that could bring his total earnings to $15 million.

DeJesus is coming off a down season in Oakland (a .240 average, a .323 OBP and a .376 slugging percentage in 506 plate appearances), and the 32-year-old comes with concerns about his health and a dip in contact rate with the A's. But DeJesus gives the Cubs -- eighth in the NL team Ultimate Zone Rating and 15th in walks last year -- a rangy right fielder with decent plate discipline who allows prospect Brett Jackson to get more Triple-A at-bats.

Over the last three years, DeJesus has saved 26 runs more than an average corner outfielder, according to Fangraphs' UZR. Brett Gardner, Nyjer Morgan, Carl Crawford and Jay Bruce are the corner fly catchers to add more value on defense.  And offensively, DeJesus' average should get out of the sub-.250 doldrums. His batting average on balls in play dipped to .274 in Oakland, way below his .331 BABIP the previous three seasons. And it wasn't as though he swung at a bunch of bad pitches -- DeJesus' 24 percent chase rate was well under 28 percent league average. Excluding pitchers, the Cubs collectively went after 31 percent of pitches thrown out of the strike zone.

That's not to say DeJesus should get a complete free pass for his bad 2011, though. His strikeout rate increased from the 12-13 percent range in recent years to 17 percent. Most of that was due to a dip in contact rate against "soft" stuff -- curveballs, sliders and changeups. DeJesus missed those pitches about 20 percent of the time that he swung in recent years, but that spiked to 28 percent in 2011. Those extra whiffs came mostly on soft stuff thrown at the knees and away:

DeJesus' contact rate by pitch location vs. "soft" stuff, 2008-2010

DeJesus' contact rate by pitch location vs. "soft" stuff, 2011 

It's hard to say if there was a connection, but DeJesus did have season-ending thumb surgery in 2010. DeJesus' batted ball profile also shifted somewhat, as he hit more fly balls (38 percent) than years past (31 percent). That's not necessarily a great thing for a hitter with modest power who had to take lots of swings in the Coliseum, Safeco and Angel Stadium, though it should play better in Wrigley.

With some worries about his performance against slower stuff and possible residual effects of his thumb injury, DeJesus isn't a slam-dunk signing. But even if he's beginning his decline phase, he should provide quality D in right field and be passable at the plate (Bill James projects a .270/.350/.400-type line).

The financial commitment Epstein and Hoyer made isn't huge, and now Brett Jackson can work on making more contact at Triple-A. Jackson, 23, hit a combined .274/.379/.490 between Double-A Tennessee and Iowa last year, but he did punch out 25 percent in the Southern League and 30 percent in the PCL. With DeJesus holding down right field, Jackson gets a chance to develop further without burning a full year of service time. And when he's ready, Chicago could shop center fielder Marlon Byrd and what's left of his $6.5 million salary for the 2012 season.