Home Run Recap: Jason Heyward

Jeff Samardzija vs. Jason Heyward Pitch Sequence, May 7th, 2012 (2nd inning)

In last night's great start from Cubs' starter Jeff Samardzija, the lone blip came in the second inning when the tall righthander gave up a home run to Atlanta Braves' Jason Heyward. 

The former Notre Dame standout started Heyward out with a two-seamer and a splitter which were both low in the zone.  The third pitch ended up right in Heyward's hot spot, as you can see from the heat map above. It was a 95 MPH two-seamer that Heyward hit out over the wall in right field at Wrigley. 

Samardzija tried to keep the ball low on Heyward all day, which is odd considering Heyward generates most of his power on balls low in the zone. He was likely hoping to get Heyward to chase a few pitches down and out of the zone, and missed his spot on the HR pitch.  From the video link above, you can see that Soto was actually setting him up outside.

Given the kind of velocity Samardzija can get behind his fastball, he might do better trying to come up and in on Heyward in future meetings.

Starlin Castro's Second-Half Pop

For most of his brief MLB career, Starlin Castro has hit atop the Cubs lineup or out of the two-hole. But new manager Dale Sveum said he's considering batting his soon-to-be 22-year-old shortstop third in 2012.

The three-spot in the lineup is usually the domain of power hitters who can drive in the guys hitting at the top -- NL players hitting third slugged .457 last year, the highest of any lineup spot. Castro, with a career .422 slugging percentage, might seem like an odd choice for a meat-of-the-order spot. But Sveum and the Cubs are likely betting that the 6-foot, 190 pound Castro grows into more of a power hitter and continues his second-half slugging from 2011.

Castro hit a grounder 53% of the time that he put the ball in play from April-June last year, well above the 44% league average. With all of those worm-burners, Castro hit just two home runs in 360 plate appearances. He hit choppers on pitches at the knees far more than most hitters. Check out his ground ball rate by pitch location, and then the league average:

Castro's ground ball rate by pitch location, April-June

Average ground ball rate by pitch location, 2011

Once the calendar turned to July, however, Castro's approach was more like that of a guy capable of driving in runs. His ground ball rate on low pitches in the zone decreased mightily:

Castro's ground ball rate by pitch location, July-September

Castro hit grounders 44% of the time from July through September. With more skyward contact, he hit eight home runs in 355 plate appearances. Overall, Castro added 10 feet of distance on his fly balls hit from April-June (261 feet) to July-September (271 feet).

While Castro wasn't a huge power threat in the minors (.421 slugging), either, his youth, size and change in approach mean he could emerge as a 15-20 homer guy as he matures. In placing Castro sixth on his "Top 50 MLB Players Age 25 or Under," ESPN's Keith Law went so far as to say, "He's likely to keep posting .300 averages and should end up with 20-plus homers and slugging percentages around .500, perhaps even better if he can work on getting into better counts." Castro might not be a middle-order masher yet, but he could be that guy one day.

Volstad's Act Against Lefties Predictable

Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer accomplished two goals on Thursday by sending Carlos Zambrano on the next flight out of town and adding cost-controlled pitching depth, picking up Chris Volstad from the Marlins. Volstad, 25, has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining and could end up being a quality mid-to-back-of-the rotation arm. The towering righty actually had a better Fielding Independent ERA than Zambrano last year (4.32 to Z's 4.59), though Volstad's ERA was over a half-run higher due to a whopping 15.5 of fly balls he gave up leaving the park.

Considering Chicago's bleak hopes of contention in 2012 and the dearth of pitching at the upper levels of the minors, adding Volstad is a nice upside play. But if the 2005 first-rounder is ever going to more than a passable rotation piece, he will need to stop being so predictable -- and hittable -- against left-handers.

Over the last three years, Volstad has allowed fellow right-handers to hit .278/.333/.411. That is by no means great (the average for righty starters versus righty batters is .258/.314/.409 over that time frame), but it looks stellar compared to his work against left-handers. Portside hitters have violated Volstad for a .284/.345/.492 line since '09 (.268/.335/.427 average for righty starters versus lefty hitters).

Volstad mixes up his pitches against lefties, tossing four-seamers (about 30 percent of the time), sinkers (30 percent), changeups (23 percent), curveballs (13 percent) and sliders (four percent). The problem is, everything he throws is on the outside corner. Look at his pitch location against opposite-handed hitters, compared to the average for right-handed starters to lefties:

Volstad's pitch location to left-handed hitters, 2009-2011

Average pitch location for right-handed starters to left-handed hitters, 2009-2011Most righties pitch lefty hitters outside, but Volstad takes it to another level. Volstad has thrown 60 percent of his pitches on the outside corner to lefties (53 percent average for righty starters versus lefty hitters), while going inside just 18 percent of the time (24 percent average).

Lefty hitters seem well aware of Volstad's outer-third approach. Check out their swing rate by location against Volstad's pitches, and then the average swing rate by location for lefty hitters against righty starters:

Left-handed hitters' swing rate by pitch location vs. Volstad, 2009-2011

Average swing rate by pitch location for left-handed hitters vs. right-handed starters, 2009-2011

Lefties have swung at slightly more than 43 percent of Volstad's pitches thrown on the outer third over the past three seasons, well above the 39 percent average. With few inside pitches, lefty hitters are waiting for those outer-third pitches and then racking up extra-base hits.

Volstad is young, fairly inexpensive (MLBTradeRumors' Matt Swartz projects he'll earn $2.6 million in arbitration) and does a good job of limiting walks and getting ground balls. That is an appealing package for a team starved for talent on the right side of 30. But right now, left-handed hitters have no reason to worry about getting pitches in on the hands and are taking advantage of Volstad's predictable outside strategy. Maybe pitching coach Chris Bosio can help him develop a cutter to keep lefties honest.