The Cubs starters deserve a better fate

Entering action on April 24, whose starting pitching has been better this season, the Cubs or the Giants?

Let me ask you another question, entering action on April 24, whose starting pitching has been better this season, the Cubs, Marlins or Padres?

Let me answer both questions this way: The Cubs starting pitching deserve better

To answer the first question: the Cubs rotation has a 3.04 ERA, trailing only the Cardinals and Braves (mouse over the team icons to see the ERA and wins), but they only have three wins. The Giants starters have a 4.41 ERA and nine wins.

As for the second question:  the Cubs, Marlins and Padres starters all have just three wins, but the Cubs starters have a 3.04 ERA, the Marlins starters have a 4.20 ERA and the Padres starters have a 5.87 ERA. 

Carlos Villanueva, Travis Wood, and Jeff Samardzija are the guys to feel badly for 

Hard to believe that Carlos Marmol leads this team with two wins.

The Cubs starters deserve better, but when you combine a weak offense and shaky defense this is what you get.

Carlos Villanueva: Strikeout Artist?

The 2012 season has been rife with crooked numbers -- and elbows -- for the Toronto Blue Jays' starting rotation. The Jays rank 10th in the American League in starter ERA, with Ricky Romero imploding and the likes of Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison undergoing Tommy John surgery. It hasn't been all bad for Toronto, though. Carlos Villanueva, thrust into the rotation once trips to Dr. Andrews became a weekly affair in the Jays clubhouse, has emerged as an unlikely strikeout artist.

Villanueva has punched out 79 batters in 85 innings pitched as a starter, posting a 3.49 ERA in the process. He's making hitters miss as often as aces like Felix Hernandez and Chris Sale:

Highest Miss Rate among AL Starting Pitchers (Min. 1,000 pitches thrown)

Pitcher	Miss Pct.
Francisco Liriano	31.2%
Yu Darvish	28.6%
Max Scherzer	28.2%
Matt Moore	27.1%
Justin Verlander	25.6%
CC Sabathia	25.4%
Jason Hammel	25.2%
Zach Britton	24.7%
James Shields	24.4%
Felix Hernandez	24.4%
Chris Sale	24.3%
Carlos Villanueva	24.2%
Jarrod Parker	23.8%
Kyle Drabek	23.6%
Freddy Garcia	23.4%
AL Avg. for SP	20.6%

The 29-year-old righty is hardly a prototypical power pitcher, sitting around 88 MPH with his fastball and mixing in breaking and off-speed stuff (changeups, sliders and curves) more than half of the time. Villanueva's cornucopia of secondary pitches seems to help his modest fastball play up, getting lots of swings and misses:

Villanueva's miss rate by pitch

Pitch	Pct. Thrown	Miss Pct.	AL Avg. for SP
Fastball	47.1	19.1	14.5
Changeup	23.2	22.9	29.3
Slider	18.4	37.7	32.2
Curveball	11.3	18.2	29.6

Finesse repertoire or not, Villanueva gets whiffs both when he pounds hitters at the knees and when he throws one near the letters. Here's his contact rate by pitch location as a starter:

Villanueva's contact rate by pitch location

Batters come up empty 33.3% of the time that they swing at Villanueva's low stuff (31.2% AL average for starters), and 23.4% when he challenges them high in the zone (19% average). During a season in which most everything else has just plain broken, Villanueva's breakout is a welcome sight amid all those surgical scars.