B.J. Upton's Power Boost Comes at a Cost

B.J. Upton is an exasperating player. He's also a very rich man after signing a five-year, $75 million contract with the Atlanta Braves. He should be a superstar, right? Upton had a huge age-22 season back in 2007, looking like Carlos Beltran Jr. by popping homers (24), getting on base (.386 OBP) and swiping bags (22). The number two pick in the 2002 draft seemed blessed with a full tool set, and he showed the savvy to make the most of his skills. Yet since then, Upton has mostly just kept his head above water at the plate (his career on-base-plus-slugging percentage is five percent better than the league average).

What gives? Upton has certainly tapped into the power present in his svelte 6-foot-3, 185-pound frame. His home run total has climbed every year during the Pitch F/X era, from nine in 2008 to a career-best 28 last season. But those bombs have come at a cost: Upton has sold out for power, chasing far more pitches off the plate and often coming up empty.

Take a look at Upton's swing rate by pitch location back in 2008, and then his swing rate this past season:

Upton's swing rate in 2008

Upton's swing rate in 2012

B.J. chased 17.5% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone back in 2008, far below the 28% average for MLB hitters in recent seasons. Last year, however, Upton hacked at 29% of pitches thrown out of the zone.

In addition to widening his strike zone, Upton has whiffed more often while aiming for the fences. Here's his contact rate by pitch location in 2008, and then in 2012:

Upton's contact rate in 2008

Upton's contact rate in 2012

Upton missed 20.8% of the pitches he swung at in 2008, slightly above the 20.2% average that season. Last year, he whiffed 31.5% of the time he swung. Granted, the overall MLB whiff rate has climbed (to 22% in 2012), but Upton missed a higher rate of pitches than every AL hitter not named Josh Hamilton, Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena and Mark Reynolds. Homers are sexy. They earn fat checks in free agency. But are they worth it if they come with a sub-.300 on-base-percentage?

B.J. Upton's two seasons

The Rays' B.J. Upton is a 2013 free agent and it seems to have taken him some time to realize it.

We all know of ballplayers who have great contract years but through August 10; Upton wasn't one of those players.

After the game on 8/10 Upton was hitting .242 with 10 homers and was slugging .378.

You can see above there were very few spots on Upton's power graph that he exhibited hitting strength.

Oddly, one of the weakest parts of Upton's game was on pitches right down the middle.

An overall .284 average isn't bad, but it needs to be better on pitches right down the middle because a batter simply won't hit as well on the corners. But what you see above, is Upton's .284 with four homers and a .453 slugging pct.

But things have changed for B.J. Upton from 8/11 to 10/1.

As you can see, from the slugging graphic above, Upton started owning the plate. Since August 10, he leads the majors with 11 homers and has slugged .616 with an OPS of .916.

But the difference is huge on Upton's ability to hit those mistakes by pitchers when they throw the ball down the middle of the plate.

On pitches in the middle of the plate, Upton has hit .328, slugged .776, with an OPS of 1.126 with eight homers.

Those are the numbers that will end up bringing the ka-ching to Upton's next contract. 

Nine to Know: The AL Postseason Watch

1. Adrian Beltre hit a tiebreaking two-run 9th inning homer off Angels closer closer Ernesto Frieri as the Rangers topped the Angels, 3-1, and got the fat lady starting to warm up her voice for the Halos this season.Since the All Star break, Beltre has hit 19 homers in 62 games
2. Texas  is now 89-60 and the Angels  are now 81-69 and 4.5 games behind the A’s (85-64) who are 4 games behind Texas after clobbering Detroit (79-70), 12-4.
3. The A’s got bad news when they found that pitcher Brett Anderson will miss the rest of the season, due to an oblique injury.
4. The Tigers did not lose ground in the AL Central as the division leading White Sox (81-68) lost to the Royals, 4-3, on an Eric Hosmer walkoff single. The ChiSox have a 2 game lead in the division despite going 6-12 against the Royals this year.
5. The Yankees (86-63) increased their AL East lead to a full game by winning their fifth in a row as Nick Swisher  grand slammed and Ichiro Suzuki was simply grand again in a 10-7 win over the increasingly blue Jays.Ichiro in three games against Toronto
6. In the sweep of Toronto, Ichiro was 9 for 12 with three doubles, a homer, four RBI and four steals. He’s now hitting .321 as a Yankee including batting .362 against lefties. The Yanks matched their season high of 23 games over .500.
7. The Yankees lead the AL East by one over Baltimore (85-64) who were idle yesterday and by 6.5 over Tampa (80-70) who scored six in the bottom of the 9th including a three-run walkoff homer by B.J. Upton to top the pitiful Red Sox, 7-4.
8. By splitting the four games with Boston, Tampa Bay remained 5.5 games back of Oakland and Baltimore who are tied for the two AL wild-card slots.
9. Walkoffs:

• The A’s now have 13 walkoff wins and four walkoff losses.
• The Orioles now have seven walkoff wins and no walkoff losses.
• The Rays now have seven walkoff wins and six walkoff losses.
• The Tigers now have seven walkoff wins and seven walkoff losses.
• The White Sox now have seven walkoff wins and seven walkoff losses.
• The Rangers now have five walkoff wins and five walkoff losses.
• The Angels now have four walkoff wins and six walkoff losses.
• The Yankees now have two walkoff wins and six walkoff losses.