Andre Ethier's Power Outage

From 2008-2010, Andre Ethier established himself as one of the better power hitters in the National League. The Dodgers outfielder clubbed an average of about 25 home runs per season, slugging .504 in the process. But as L.A. languishes in 15th place among NL clubs in run scoring this year, Ethier has gone deep just 10 times while slugging .416. The lefty hasn't hit a homer since July 25, a stretch of 88 at-bats.

A major reason for Ethier's power outage is that he's not driving pitches thrown inside and at the knees like he usually does. From '08 to '10, he golfed low-and-inside pitches for extra bases:

Ethier's in-play slugging percentage by pitch location, 2008-2010 Ethier slugged .469 against pitches thrown low and inside over that three-year stretch, besting the .343 league average for lefties by a considerable margin. But in 2011, that hot spot has disappeared:

Ethier's in-play slugging percentage by pitch location, 2011He's slugging a paltry .188 against low-and-inside offerings, without a single homer hit on a pitch thrown in that location.  

The Dodgers have a difficult decision to make with Ethier after this season. The 29-year-old is pulling down $9.25 million this year, and he's got one year of arbitration eligibility remaining before he hits free agency after 2012. Even with a tepid season so far, Ethier will easily make eight figures in 2012 should he go to arbitration.

If the Dodgers think his power will recover, then Ethier is likely worth the cash. If not, the cash-strapped club might choose to let someone else pay for a lumbering corner outfielder with mid-range pop.

Andre Ethier's Hit Streak

Andre Ethier's (LAD) hit streak sits at 30.  As David Pinto noted a couple of weeks back, Ethier has been getting hits on balls on the outside of the zone.  This has been a change from his hitting pattern over the previous three years:

Andre Ethier (Click to enlarge)

Prior to this year, Ethier had been generating a good deal of power on pitches down and in.  That zone has gone cold for him this season, while he's been able to hit pitches low and away much better.

As you would expect from someone riding a 30-game hit streak, Ethier has a very high BABIP of .444 this season, 131 points higher than his previous three year average.  Part of this is due to the increase in line drives he's been hitting during the streak.  Compared to his numbers from 2008-2010, Ethier's LD% is up 7% since his hit streak began.  Even more important, his line drive BABIP is up 192 points. 

Ethier has also been a bit luckier than usual on his groundballs.  Throughout his streak, they have resulted in hits about 36% of the time.  From 2008-2010, he had a groundball batting average of .255.

Ethier faces the New York Mets tonight at Citi Field as he attempts to tie Willie Davis for the Dodgers all-time hit streak honor.  While Ethier's in play average will likely regress at some point this season, the real question is whether it will regress enough over the next 26 or so games to break his hit streak.

Ethier's Adjustment?

Andre Ethier (LAN) extended his hitting streak to 24 games Wednesday afternoon.  A .279 career hitter, Andre's batting average stands at .380 in 2011.  The pattern that pitchers used against him doesn't seem to be working this year.

During the previous three seasons, Ethier did his best hitting on balls inside:

Andre Ethier, in play average, 2008-2011.So pitchers worked him away:

Andre Ethier, pitch frequency, 2008-2010. They continue to work him away in 2011:

Andre Ethier, pitch frequency, 2011.What's changed is Andre is poking those outside pitches for hits:

Andre Ethier, in play average, 2011.So is this real, or just an early season fluke?  Andre hasn't really changed his approach.  He's not swinging more at outside pitches, except those in the upper outside corner.  He's squaring up those pitches better, however.  In the past, 19% of balls he put in play on outside pitches resulted in line drives.  This season, 35% of those pitches turn into line drives.  That seems like an unsustainable rate, but for now, the old way of pitching to the Dodgers outfielder just isn't working.