Top 16 Fantasy Baseball First Basemen

Below are my pre-season top 16 first baseman rankings:

1. Joey Votto, CIN
2. Prince Fielder, MIL
3. Albert Pujols, LAA
4. Edwin Encarnacion, TOR
5. Adrian Gonzalez, LAD
6. Allen Craig, STL
7. Billy Butler, KC
8. Eric Hosmer, KC
9. Ike Davis, NYM
10. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI
11. Freddie Freeman, ATL
12. Adam LaRoche, WSH
13. Nick Swisher, CLE
14. Mark Trumbo, LAA
15. Anthony Rizzo, CHC
16. Paul Konerko, CHW

Honorable mention: Garret Jones, Chris Davis, David Ortiz, Lance Berkman

Additional Information:

1. There’s been a lot of concern from fantasy owners about Joey Votto's lack of power after missing nearly two months of the 2012 season with two knee surgeries. However, even though he missed two months of the season he still had a career high in doubles, which tells me he has more power than the 14 home runs he ended the year with. Also, he’s almost a shoe-in for a .310+ batting average, which allows more freedom with roster construction.
2. I have one number for you: 160; that’s the average number of games Prince Fielder has averaged over his entire career. His power may no longer be elite; you may be surprised that he only hit 30 home runs last year; he’s never hurt and is one of the safest players in fantasy. Also, Victor Martinez replaces the free swinging Delmon Young in the fifth spot in the batting order, so Fielder could score 100+ runs.
3. The slow start of Albert Pujols' 2012 season was well documented, but his return to being Albert Pujols in big capital letters went under the radar. It’s possible the cause of his slow start was due to pressing to impress his new team, but that doesn’t erase the fact his offensive numbers have been in decline the past three seasons. He had all-time lows in walk percentage, home runs, slugging and OPS in 2012 as well as striking more than ever did. Also, his AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS have dropped year over year for the past four seasons.
4. Two years removed from wrist surgery and finally healthy, Edwin Encarnacion had a career year posting 42 home runs and 110 RBIs. Instead of hitting behind Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus, he’ll be hitting behind of Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera in 2013. He had a career high in his HR/FB rate (24.5%) so it’s more likely he regresses to 32-35 home runs. Fantasy owners should expect 6 stolen bases; anything more is gravy.
5. In an extremely small sample size (36 games) Adrian Gonzalez hit.297/.344/.441 for the Dodgers showing the MVP skill set was still there. It’s possible the discomfort in his surgically-repaired shoulder was the culprit for the lack of power last year; he posted a career low HR/FB rate of 12.2%. If he slips to the end of the fourth round of drafts I will gladly take the upside.
6. The biggest question about Allen Craig has never been about his skill set, but about his ability to play a full season. In the last two seasons he’s only totaled 773 plate appearances. With those appearances he’s been extremely productive; his .532 SLG the past two years ranks him 14^th among hitters with 700+ plate appearances. Craig enters the year as the full time first baseman, which should give him a better opportunity to stay healthy. 
7. Like Prince Fielder, Billy Butler has been very healthy his entire career, averaging 159 games played the past four years. It should be noted that he only played 20 games at first last season, as he is primarily a DH. His HR/FB rate of 20.6% is probably unsustainable, but during the second half of the 2011 season Butler began swinging at more pitches and becoming more aggressive at the plate. The trend continued in 2012 as he set career highs in home runs and RBI. He’s entering his prime and could be in line for breakout in 2013. 
8. Prior to his rookie debut in 2010, every scout and publication hailed Eric Hosmer as the next super star. After a solid rookie year, the hype around him before 2012 drafts were immense, so large that he was the 53^rd player taken off the board in ESPN leagues. In 2013, he should reach his level. Draft him as a first baseman whose floor is a .280 batting average, 20 home runs, 80+/80+ (RBI/runs) with double digit steals.
9. Ike Davis' low batting average was the result of an extremely low .246 BABIP and his inability to hit left handed pitching. For his career, his slash line against lefties is .217/.281/.361. What’s more discouraging is his walk rate has decreased for the third year in a row. However, what’s encouraging is his ground ball rate has decreased during the past three years as well. Since he strikes out 20% of the time, the batting average will be BABIP dependent; I believe he turns into a great fantasy sleeper; hitting .255, 29-35 home runs with 90+/90+ (RBI/runs).
10. Most of Paul Goldschmidt's fantasy value came from (surprisingly) his 18 SBs. He’s a well below average runner (30-35 on the 20-80 scouting scale) and I can’t see him coming close to the 18 again. If he doesn’t steal 18 bases, he’s more a top 20 than a top 10 first baseman. Power is necessary when drafting a first baseman; I’ll be surprised if he hits more than 25 home runs, which puts him at a disadvantage amongst his colleagues. Goldschmidt’s value is team dependent; he’s a great fit for teams already with a lot of power, but he’s a poor fit if he’s on a team devoid of power.
11. In 2012, despite a lower batting average, Freddie Freeman’s slugging and walk percentages increased, which tells me he’s making the necessary adjustments to become a better hitter. His plate coverage and bat speed points to a .300 batting average. Fantasy owners expecting 28+ home runs will be disappointed, but 25 is certainly reasonable.
12. Prior to the 2011 season Adam LaRoche was the fantasy version of an old Toyota; not sexy, consistent and predictable. However, a shoulder injury put him out for 75% of the season. In 2012, he rewarded fantasy owners with career highs in home runs. His 21.8% HR/FB rate should come back down to his career average of 18%, but that will only take away couple of home runs. He’s expected to bat cleanup so another year of 25 home runs, 95+ RBI with a .265+ batting average is almost as good as money in the bank.
13. Nick Swisher is a very consistent and underrated hitter who has avoided major injuries. A slight decline in power is expected as he’s leaving one of the best ballparks for power to an average ballpark in Cleveland. In the past three seasons 80% of his power came while batting left-handed. Cleveland’s ballpark is seventh best ballpark for left-handed hitters, compared to Yankee Stadium ranking second. He’s not a sexy player, but he can definitely help your fantasy team.
14. After the Angels traded Kendrys Morales for Jason Vargas, Mark Trumbo became the full time DH and will bat fifth behind Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Trumbo’s season was a tale of two halves. The first half his slash line was .302/.358/.608 and his second half slash line was .227/.271/.359. He has the raw power, but a poor approach (striking out 26% of the time) will limit the potential for batting average. On the bright side his walk percentage increased two percentage points, showing he’s making some adjustments to his approach. He would be the perfect complement to a Eric Hosmer or a Paul Goldschmidt.
15. During his first partial season in the majors (with the San Diego Padres) Anthony Rizzo clearly looked overmatched and it showed, striking out 30% of the time. He was acquired by the Cubs  in January 2012 and started the season in Triple-A. He made a number of adjustments, specifically reducing the length in his swing, reducing his strike out rate 44% and increased contact his contact rate 17.5%. His fantasy potential is immense, but he has a long way to go before reaching that potential.
16. For the first time in three seasons Paul Konerko posted an OPS less than .900. His low ranking is not a function of declining skill set, but more of a concern of the player who bats in front of him in the order: Adam Dunn. Dunn is a three-outcome player; he either walks, strikes out or hits a home run. A player like Dunn limits Konerko’s ability to drive in runs. Among all players with at least 300 at-bats, Konerko ranked 60^th in plate appearances with runners on base, one spot ahead of Jeff Francouer. I’ve had Konerko every year for the past three seasons, but this year he won’t be on any of my teams because the upside is no longer there.

Overall Draft Strategy

For the first time in a long time the gap between the top three and the 10th first baseman is not that wide. With home runs becoming even more of a premium, first base is a position where fantasy owners must get that power. Other than Fielder, every player in the top 5 has huge question marks; that is why I recommend waiting until the middle rounds to get your first baseman.

Inside Heat Hurting Adrian Gonzalez

Adrian Gonzalez established himself as one of the game's great hitters by using his smooth, compact stroke to lash outer-half pitches to the opposite field. In fact, no active player this side of Jim Thome has a higher slugging percentage on outer-half offerings dating back to 2008 (.545). Against outer-half fastballs, Gonzalez has a .682 slugging percentage.  

Perhaps tired of being victimized by Gonzalez's outer-half prowess, pitchers have busted him inside much more this year. That's especially the case with fastballs. Gonzalez hasn't been able to adjust to all the inside heat so far, and his power numbers are suffering.

Check out pitchers' fastball location versus Gonzalez in 2011, and then this season:

Pitchers' fastball location vs. Gonzalez, 2011Pitchers' fastball location vs. Gonzalez, 2012

Opponents threw inside fastballs to Gonzalez 33 percent of the time in 2011, but that has jumped up to 43 percent in 2012. That's the second-highest percentage of inside fastballs seen by a lefty batter this season, behind only Atlanta's Jason Heyward. And loud contact for Gonzalez against inside heat has been about as common as quiet nights in the Boston media. Here's his slugging percentage vs. inside fastballs last season, and in 2012:

2011

2012

Gonzalez slugged .531 against inside fastballs in 2011, about 90 points above the MLB average. That has been cut in half in 2012. He's got one of the 20 lowest slugging percentages against inside heat this year:

Lowest slugging percentage vs. inside fastballs, 2012

Batter	Slugging Pct.
Justin Morneau	.091
Justin Smoak	.125
Mike Moustakas	.143
Kendrys Morales	.154
Casey Kotchman	.160
Carlos Santana	.188
Kyle Seager	.190
David DeJesus	.192
Cameron Maybin	.200
Cliff Pennington	.214
Jimmy Rollins	.222
Gordon Beckham	.229
Brian McCann	.233
Jason Kipnis	.233
Miguel Montero	.235
Jose Tabata	.240
Dayan Viciedo	.244
Jamey Carroll	.250
Adrian Gonzalez	.266
Justin Upton	.268

Gonzalez's woes against inside fastballs go a long way toward explaining his 2012 power outage (he's slugging just .417 this season, compared to .548 during his first year with the Red Sox). Pitchers have adjusted their game plan against him, preferring to tie him up inside instead of watch him lace outside pitches off the Green Monster. Now, it's up to Gonzalez to counter-punch.

A-Gon Punchless vs. Outside Pitches

The Boston Red Sox traded a trio of well-regard prospects prior to the 2011 season to get Adrian Gonzalez's bat from the Padres and then signed the franchise first baseman to a seven-year, $154 contract extension. Gonzalez rewarded his new club with 27 homers, a .548 slugging percentage and a 155 OPS+ as the Sox paced the majors in runs scored. Boston still has a quality offense in 2012 despite an avalanche of injuries (third in runs scored). But, as the Boston Herald's Scott Lauber says, Gonzalez's power production is gonzo:

Adrian Gonzalez knows what you’re thinking.

Through 44 games and nearly 200 plate appearances, he has hit three home runs — one fewer than outfielder Daniel Nava, who was called up by the Red Sox [team stats] only three weeks ago. He’s also slugging .406, a lower percentage than even spray-hitting Kansas City Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar (.422) or Chicago White Sox leadoff man Alejandro De Aza (.417).

Yo Adrian, where has your power gone?

Gonzalez's OPS+ is just 101 this year, a far cry from his career 138 mark. Where has Adrian's power gone? The answer lies on the outside corner of the plate.

During his first year in Boston, Gonzalez was one of the best hitters in the game in terms of thumping pitches thrown away. Look at his slugging percentage on outside pitches, and then the average for lefty batters:

Gonzalez's slugging percentage vs. pitches thrown away, 2011

Average slugging percentage for lefty hitters vs. pitches thrown away

Gonzalez slugged .518 against pitches thrown away in 2011, the fourth-highest clip among lefty batters and 130 points above the big league average. With 12 homers on pitches thrown away, Gonzalez trailed just Curtis Granderson, Ryan Howard, Carlos Santana, Carlos Pena and Jay Bruce among those swinging from the left side.  

In 2012, though? Gonzalez's heat map is ice cold on away pitches:

Gonzalez's slugging percentage vs. pitches thrown away, 2012

Adrian hasn't hit a single homer on a pitch thrown away, and his .238 slugging percentage is eighth-worst among qualified lefty batters. Gonzalez is renowned for lacing outside pitches to the opposite field, and he dented or cleared the Green Monster often on pitches thrown away in 2011...

Gonzalez's spray chart vs. outside pitches, 2011

So far in 2012, however, he's hitting singles and weak fly outs:

Gonzalez's spray chart vs. outside pitches, 2012

With Boston's outfield decimated (Gonzalez has played right field recently in interleague games), the Sox need their first baseman to find his power stroke. To do that, he'll have to get reacquainted with the Monster.