Best Mistake Hitters since 2010

Highest HR% on Mistake Pitches since 2010

Player	P	PA	AVG	SLUG	K%	HR%
Jose Bautista	474	183	.396	.956	6.6%	16.5%
David Ortiz	383	176	.405	.971	4.5%	15.0%
Matt Joyce	250	97	.389	.958	11.3%	14.7%
Shelley Duncan	204	75	.387	.893	21.3%	14.7%
Jim Thome	214	83	.402	.927	16.9%	14.6%
Russell Branyan	172	62	.306	.806	19.4%	14.5%
Matt Kemp	508	185	.379	.879	9.7%	13.7%
Pedro Alvarez	214	82	.415	.915	12.2%	13.4%
Mike Stanton	293	116	.421	.956	10.3%	13.2%
Pat Burrell	246	79	.408	.921	11.4%	13.2%
Josh Hamilton	252	124	.369	.820	8.9%	13.1%
Brennan Boesch	276	129	.414	.875	7.0%	12.5%
Ryan Braun	458	178	.434	.914	6.7%	12.0%
Brian McCann	301	109	.367	.789	11.9%	11.9%
Carlos Pena	361	139	.296	.741	12.2%	11.9%
Jorge Posada	237	101	.257	.644	16.8%	11.9%
Adam LaRoche	242	93	.376	.817	9.7%	11.8%
Joey Votto	420	165	.466	.975	9.7%	11.7%
Mark Reynolds	459	170	.293	.731	17.6%	11.4%
Carlos Quentin	303	109	.286	.705	7.3%	11.4%
Prince Fielder	368	159	.365	.755	6.3%	11.3%
Albert Pujols	407	162	.379	.814	4.3%	11.2%
Curtis Granderson	411	110	.336	.776	3.6%	11.2%
Kelly Johnson	412	153	.329	.763	9.2%	11.2%

Make a mistake to any of these hitters, and you're bound to pay for it. The above list includes only pitches that crossed the center of the strike zone since 2010. It's no surprise that Jose Bautista has a high HR% on mistake pitches; same for David Ortiz, Matt Kemp and a bunch of others.

I'm somewhat surprised to see Matt Joyce as #3 on the list. Of the 36 home runs he's hit since the start of 2010, 14 have come on pitches right in the center of the strike zone. Eight of those HRs came in 2011 when he hit 19 total long balls.

Nick Swisher has the most hits on mistake pitches with 80, while teammate Derek Jeter's 79 hits has him tied for second with Michael Young.

Mark Reynolds, #20 on the list, also has 30 strike outs on pitches over the middle of the plate since 2010. That's second only to Adam Dunn with 33.

2011's Big Bombers

While run-scoring was down for a sixth straight season in 2011 (from 4.86 runs per team during the go-go days of 2006 to 4.28), hitters still went deep a combined 4,552 times. On average, those homers traveled 395 feet from home plate to the cheap seats. But some batters blew past that average, routinely hitting tape-measure shots. Here's a look at the hitters with the highest average home run distance in 2011 (minimum 10 HR):

 

A few observations:

- Brent Morel (76 OPS+), Adam Dunn (56 OPS+) and Gordon Beckham (72 OPS+) had miserable offensive years for the White Sox, but apparently they tried to make up for all those outs by knocking the balls they did connect on clear out of Chicago. Alas, those bombs still only count once on the score board.

- Mike Stanton's moon shots at the Miami Marlins' new stadium will activate this beaming fishy Ferris Wheel. In spite of this, Marlins fans will still root for Stanton to go yard.

- All together, Matt Kemp's homers traveled just short of 3.1 miles. He could cover those 3.1 miles with a straight line of $100 bills and still have about $156.8 million left on his new eight-year, $160 million contract extension. This is a random, nerdy way of saying it pays to have Herculean power.

Dunn Against Lefties?

As a follow up to Bill Chuck's previous post on Adam Dunn of the Chicago White Sox, a reader asked to look at his struggles against lefties.  There are two major changes that help account for his poor performance.

Pitchers are attacking Dunn more when the count favors the hurler.  From 2008-2010,  Dunn tended to see pitches away when he was at a disadvantage:

Adam Dunn versus left-handed pitchers, count favoring the pitcher, 2008-2010.Now they are busting him inside.

Adam Dunn versus left-handed pitchers, count favoring the pitcher, 2011.From 2008-2010 Dunn hit .159/.177/.270 in that situation for a wOBA of .194.  This season, he's hitting .000 across the board.

The second change is one that might explain why pitchers are willing to pitch him inside.

Adam Dunn fly ball distance

Pitcher handedness	2008-2010	2011
Right handed	343	328
Left handed	337	320

Adam can't hit the ball that far any more.  There may be many reasons for his, but since his distance dropped against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers, it may be Adam more than the way he's being pitched.  Given that opponents are more likely to pitch him inside, it seems Adam lost some bat speed.  Maybe a lighter bat will help, but it could also be that at age 31, like Pat Burrell, he physically lost part of his ability to hit.