How has Machado done it? Here's a closer look at his marked offensive improvement.

• Machado's going after fewer junk pitches off the plate, lowering his chase rate from 31% as a rookie to 23% in 2013. That's well below the 27% big league average this season. Manny has cut his chase rate against low pitches in half, from 32% to 16%.

Machado's swing rate by pitch location, 2012

Machado's swing rate by pitch location, 2013

• Machado hasn't just shortened his strike zone -- he has also connected much more often. As a rookie, his miss rate (25%) was higher than the MLB average (22%). But this season, he has whiffed just 17%. His biggest gain has come on inside pitches, with his miss rate falling from 24% to just 10%.

Machado's contact rate by pitch location, 2012

Machado's contact rate by pitch location, 2013

• That extra contact on inside pitches has been loud. Machado has clubbed five homers and slugged .645 against inner-third offerings, which is 230 points above the MLB average (.415). Last year, he hit  two homers and slugged .406.

Or so we thought. Pineda's waistline expanded, his velocity shrunk and he underwent surgery for a torn labrum. He has yet to throw a regular-season pitch in pinstripes. And Montero? His 6-foot-3, 230-pound frame has produced just a .377 slugging percentage in Seattle, and he just got booted off the M's roster.

With all due respect to Eddie Harris from Major League, I'm just gonna say it: Jesus can't hit a curveball. The 23-year-old Montero's big league career is being held back by serious pitch recognition issues against the breaker. Check out Montero's swing rate by pitch location against curveballs during his short career, and then the MLB average:

Montero's swing rate vs. curveballs, 2012-13

Swing rate vs. curveballs for MLB hitters

Two things immediately stand out, and neither is good: Montero swings at fewer in-zone curveballs (44%) than the average big league hitter (55%), and he chases more curves out of the zone (39% for Montero, 28% MLB average). On a related note, Jesus has been one of the worst curveballs hitters in the majors over the past two years. His slugging percentage against curves during the 2012-13 seasons is more than 200 points below the MLB average:

Lowest slugging percentage vs. curveballs, 2012-13

We knew that Montero would struggle to hit the curve, but his bat figured to make him a stud nonetheless. But, now that he can't hit the curve, it might be time for Jesus to make an offering to Jobu.

Mat Latos

• Latos is 4-0 with a 2.97 ERA and a 0.723 WHIP.
• Batters are hitting .247 against Latos.
• He's walked 15 and whiffed 51.
• He's allowed six homers.
• Batters have missed on 24% of their swings.
• The avg. velocity of his fastball is 91.3 mph maxing out at 95.5.

Matt Harvey

• Harvey is 5-0 with a 1.55 ERA and a 1.176 WHIP.
• Batters are hitting .149 against Harvey.
• He's walked 14 and whiffed 68.
• He's allowed three homers.
• Batters have missed on 28.4% of their swings.
• The avg. velocity of his fastball is 94.7 mph maxing out at 98.9.

Matt Moore

• Moore is 8-0 with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP.
• Batters are hitting .175 against Moore.
• He's walked 26 and whiffed 54.
• He's allowed seven homers.
• Batters have missed on 24.1% of their swings.
• The avg. velocity of his fastball is 92.4 mph maxing out at 95.1.

Johnson was the beneficiary of Nate McLouth's 10th inning walkoff homer last night and earned the win with a perfect top of the 10th retiring the Yanks on line out, fly out, and pop out to get the victory. 

The question is, "what is going on with Johnson in saves situations?"

Nine to Know

Since the start of the 2008 season, nine relievers have had streaks of at least three blown saves

As you can see, not only has Johnson blown three straight saves but has given up more runs than any of the other relievers

This blown save streak was particularly surprising in light of the fact that Johnson had been running a streak of 35 straight converted save opportunities going back to last July 30.

From July 30, 2012 to May 10, 2013

• Johnson appeared in 45 games, throwing 44 innings.
• He earned 35 saves, had no blown saves and had a record of 2-2.
• He allowed three runs on 30 hits including just one homer and three doubles.
• He walked eight and whiffed 34.
• He held batters to a .196 batting avg., a .241 OBP and a .241 slugging pct.
• Of the 645 pitches thrown, approximately 50% of them were in the strike zone, with 74.3% fastballs (477) with an average velocity of 93.8 mph.
• Batters put 119 balls in play with 64 (53.8%) grounders

The blown save streak May 14 to May 20, 2013 (still active)

• Johnson appeared in three games, throwing 2.1 innings.
• He earned no saves, has had three blown saves and a record of 0-2.
• He has allowed eight runs on nine hits including two homers and one double.
• He has walked two and whiffed one.
• Batters are battering him with a .643 batting avg., a .706 OBP and a 1.143 slugging pct.
• Of the 69 pitches thrown, approximately 35.3% of them were in the strike zone, with 70.6% fastballs (48) with an average velocity of 93.9 mph.
• Batters put 13 balls in play with six (46.1%) grounders, three which went for hits.

The problem seems to be Johnson's control in and out of the strike zone.

Of Johnson's 69 pitches, only 24 have been in the zone.

Batters have chased 11 pitches and Johnson has picked up just seven called strikes and five swings-and-misses.

Johnson's been all over the place

Johnson has thrown 48 fastballs over the last three games and batters are sitting on the pitch going 8-for-11 knowing Johnson has trouble locating it as you can see in the heat map below.

Johnson is a good reliever who was pitching over his head and is now in a saves slump. Perhaps last night's game will straighten him out. However, you want your reliever throwing strikeouts and ground outs, not allowing balls in the air.

Look at Johnson's 2012 numbers:

• 15.2% strikeouts
• 12.3% ground balls
• 3.6% line drives
• 3.8% fly balls
• 0.8% pop-ups 

Look at Johnson's 2013 numbers:

• 19.8% strikeouts
• 8.4% ground balls
• 3.9% line drives
• 4.5% fly balls
• 1.4% pop-ups

Yes, his strikeouts are up this season but his balls in the air are also up. This is probably why his BAbip is up from .252 to .306.

There are few better baseball minds than Orioles pitching coordinator Rick Peterson and pitching coach Rick Adair. Unless there is something physical bothering Johnson, I expect to see a Johnson recovery coming shortly.

Whether, or when, the reliever manager gets the call, remains to be seen, but it is in the bullpen that Don Mattingly has been having a miserable time this season.

The great Ken Rosenthal on Foxsports.com wrote yesterday, "Now I’m convinced that Mattingly is going to get fired. And the sooner it happens, the better."

The last-place Dodgers were swept over their weekend in Atlanta, getting outscored, 16-8. Their bullpen allowed 12 of the runs.

No group of relievers have lost as many games as the Dodgers in all of baseball.

• As you can see, only the Mets and Astros bullpens have a worse ERA than the Dodgers
• As you can see, only the Phils and Astros bullpens have a worse WHIP than the Dodgers

Here are the individuals relievers who have provided little relief for LA

If Don Mattingly loses his job, those calls to the bullpen will have been a number of the nails in his coffin.

As Rosenthal wrote, "a bad bullpen can create a bad manager." Mattingly defended his relievers afterward, saying “Take it all as a group, not just the bullpen.”

It certainly feels as if both the Dodgers bullpen and Don Mattingly are worried about hearing that phone ring. The call at the other end seems to only mean trouble.

Rays Saves leaders since 2000

Usually, the Rays anoint a new closer each season but this year Tampa went right back to Fernando Rodney who was successful for them last year converting 48 of 50 save opportunities.

But this season, he has already been denied shooting his imaginary arrow into the save-osphere, blowing three saves in 10 opportunities.

The ugliest blown save of the season may have occurred this past Thursday night when he entered the game with a 3-1 lead over the Boston Red Sox in the top of the 9th and issued a career-high three consecutive walks before Will Middlebrooks lined a bases-clearing double that blew the save and resulted in a 4-3 Rays loss.

The 2012 All-Star closer was missing the strike zone by a lot and over-throwing his fastball in the hopes of closing out this game.

2012 vs 2013

Rodney is a very different pitcher this season. Not only had Rodney led American League in saves in 2012 and he had a 0.78 ERA and a 0.777 WHIP. This season, he has a 5.28 ERA and a 1.761 WHIP.

• In 2012, he pitched 74.2 innings, allowed nine runs, walked 15, and he gave up two homers. In 2013, he has pitched 15.1 innings, allowed nine runs, walked 15, and he has given up two homers.

Rodney pitched for the Dominican Republic in the 2013 World Baseball Classic and you have to wonder if it took its toll in terms of velocity and control.

Rodney is a fastball/change-up pitcher

2012

In 2012, Rodney averaged 96 mph on his fastball, with a high of 100.4, and a low of 91.4. Batters hit .248 against it with two homers, 19 whiffs, and nine walks.

In 2012, Rodney averaged 82.5 mph on his change, a 13.5 mph differential, with a high of 88.7, and a low of 78.2

Batters hit .070 against it with no homers, 55 whiffs, and five walks.

2013

In 2013, Rodney has averaged 95.9 mph on his fastball, basically the same as last season, but you can see his location is nowhere as effective as last season, drifting lower in the zone.

He has hit a high of 100.1, and a low of 90.5. Batters are hitting .365 against it with one homer, six whiffs, and six walks.

In 2013, Rodney has averaged 84.2 mph on his change, an 11.7 mph differential, with a high of 84.2, and a low of 78.7

Batters have hit .094 against it with one homer, 17 whiffs, and eight walks.

As you can see, the reduced speed differential and less precise placement of the change is making both his change and fastball less effective.

Let's quantify that further

• In 2012, batters swung at 50.1% of Rodney's change-ups; in 2013, it's 46.4%. 
• In 2012, 70.4% of Rodney's change-ups were strikes or in play; in 2013, it's 60.6%. 
• In 2012, batters swung at 50.1% of Rodney's change-ups; in 2013, it's 46.4%. 
• In 2012, batters chased 42.5% of Rodney's change-ups; in 2013, it's 35.1%. 
• In 2012, 40.6% of Rodney's change-ups were called strikes; in 2013, it's 28.4%.

You get the feeling that Joe Maddon and Jim Hickey, the brilliant pitching coach for the Rays, won't let this continue much further. Invariably, the Rays don't have room for error and can't afford a shaky closer. If Rodney is unable to sharpen his control and spread the speed differential between his two pitches, don't be surprised if the Rays seek an alternative closer. 

Goldschmidt's slugging percentage vs. high pitches, 2013

Goldschmidt has blasted eight home runs on high pitches this season, tops in the majors by a wide margin. His closest competitors are Nelson Cruz, Mark Reynolds and Chris Carter, with five. He also boasts the highest slugging percentage versus high stuff among MLB hitters, besting the likes of Davis, Cruz and Ryan Braun:

Highest slugging percentage vs. high pitches, 2013

Goldschmidt was a prodigious high-pitch slugger in both 2011 (.595) and 2012 (.604), but he has taken it to another level this year by improving his pitch recognition. When opponents throw him high stuff, he's swinging at more strikes and chasing fewer pitches off the plate:

Goldschmidt's swing rates vs. high pitches, 2011-13

Arizona recently signed Goldschmidt to a five-year, $32 million contract extension with a $14.5 million club option for the 2019 season. That could end up being one of the most team-friendly deals in the majors, considering that Goldy's career OPS+ so far through age 25 (135) is similar to first base luminaries like Eddie Murray (136 OPS+), John Olerud (137 OPS+), Joey Votto (139 OPS+), Orlando Cepeda (139 OPS+), Jeff Bagwell, and Prince Fielder (140 OPS+). Goldschmidt's track record isn't as long as those guys (he's just closing in on 1,000 career plate appearances, while most of the players mentioned above had 2,000-3,000 trips to the dish at the same point; Votto had the fewest, at 1,222). But still, talk about stellar company.

Problem is, that narrative couldn't be more wrong. An older, gimpier Pujols is still crushing fastballs. It's the slow stuff -- breaking balls and changeups -- that's proving to be his downfall.

Pujols' slugging percentage vs. fastballs, 2013

Pujols is slugging .565 against fastballs this season. That doesn't quite match his Herculean production in past years (he slugged .587 versus the heat from 2010-12), but it's still over 100 points above the MLB average (.443). Against slow stuff, however, Pujols isn't nearly so studly...

Pujols' slugging percentage vs. curveballs, sliders and changeups, 2013

Unless pitchers hang one over the heart of the plate, Pujols isn't punishing breaking and off-speed stuff. He's slugging a paltry .279 against soft stuff, a far cry from his .460 mark the previous three seasons and over 100 points below the MLB average (.392). Pujols' lone homer against on a slow pitch in 2013 came on a Pat Neshek slider on April 29.

So far, Pujols has seen only slightly fewer two-and-four-seam fastballs (45.6%) than the average MLB hitter (46.6%). That could change if he continues to make such weak contact on curves, sliders and changeups. Pujols may be on the decline, but the cause is slow stuff, not a slowing bat.

This analysis is a provided by Peter Gammons. For more analysis from Peter Gammons you can follow him on Twitter (@pgammo).

It was sometime after Thanksgiving, 2005 that Rays owner Stu Sternberg made official what everyone expected, that Andrew Friedman was taking over the baseball operations of a franchise that had never won as many as 71 games. Friedman was a former Tulane outfielder and had the esteemed Gerry Hunsicker as an advisor, but throughout the game there was the perception that the team once known as the Devil Rays was being turned into a satellite division of MidMark Capital, Friedman’s former employer.

Within three seasons, Friedman sideswiped tradition and hired Joe Maddon as manager and in 2008 the Rays made it to the World Series. In a division with the Yankees and Red Sox and their payrolls, that 2008 pennant began a five year run in which Tampa Bay won 90 games four times, made the post-season thrice and did it with by far the smallest annual payroll in the American League East. No team in the game won more games spending fewer dollars over those five years than the Rays.

What they’ve accomplished has been built around pitching, and Maddon’s astute usage of starting pitching, an organizational throwing and conditioning program that averaged nearly 150 starts a year out of their top five starters, and Maddon’s creativity in patching together bullpens.

In lieu of going out and trading for or signing power hitters, and faced with the reality that they could not afford to keep players like Carl Crawford and B,J. Upton from entering the free agent market, Friedman and Maddon put a premium on flexibility. For example, in 2009, Ben Zobrist, a switch-hitter, hit 27 homers, had a .405 on base percentage and was fourth in the league with a .948 OPS while playing 91 games at second, 59 in right field, 13 at short, 9 in left, 7 in center, three at first base and one at third. “Who could possibly be more valuable than Zobrist?” asked Maddon.

From Sam Fuld to Matt Joyce to Jeff Keppinger, they have patched together lineups from day to day, city to  city, building around the pitching. Maddon maintains that James Shields was a big part of the run from 70 wins to the world series because of the leadership he offered David Price, Wade Davis and, eventually in ensuing years, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb.

In 2013 opposing batters are hitting .341 when facing David Price from the right side of the plate at Tropicana Field (30 for 88 at the Trop). There is no questioning Tampa’s ability to find pitching. Granted, Price was a no-brainer in 2007; he was everyone’s number one, a reward for the Rays having the worst record in baseball in 2006. But Hellickson was a fourth rounder in 2005, when Friedman was overseeing baseball operations. Cobb was a fourth rounder in 2006. Moore was an eighth rounder in 2007.

Their professional scouts work to exhaustion, and got them Chris Archer in the Matt Garza deal, Alex Torres in the Scott Kazmir trade, Brandon Gomes in a deal with San Diego for Jason Bartlett and Jake Odirizzi with outfielder Wil Myers in the Kansas City deal for Shields and Davis. Their international scouts found Alex Colome in Latin America.

And in mid-May this season, one scout says the Rays’ AAA rotation in Durham of Archer, Odirizzi, Colome and Torres “may be the best triple-A rotation I’ve seen in five years.”

But there is a flaw in the Tampa system—finding and drafting position players. Sure, they drafted Evan Longoria in 2006, but he was the third pick in the nation, and fell in their laps because the Royals and Rockies picked Luke Hochevar and Greg Reynolds in front of them. They also got Desmond Jennings in the 10^th round in 2006. But when one looks at Tampa’s current 40 man roster, and the only positional player they drafted other than Longoria and Jennings is shortstop Tim Beckham, who represents one of the worst draft blunders of the last decade.

The Rays had the first selection in 2008 and took Beckham, a high school shortstop for Georgia. In so doing, they passed on Buster Posey, who not only filled their longtime catching need, but was playing right up the road at Florida State. Some in the organization are said to have been concerned about Posey’s asking price, although they paid Beckham $6.15M. Others wondered whether or not Posey, who was drafted a pitcher out of high school and played shortstop one season at Florida State, would hold up catching and hitting with a build very similar to Brad Ausmus.

Posey went on to win two World Series rings and an MVP trophy four years after that draft, and the Rays continue to look for a catcher. To make it worse, in their final year picking at the top of the draft, not one player picked from the second round on down has spent a day in the big leagues. No position player from the 2009 or 2010 drafts has spent a day in the big leagues, and the side-affect of their major league success is that even if they are one of the lowest-revenue teams, they could go several years after the Beckham choice without a pick in the top ten of the first round.

With the Rays facing a decision on Price’s future in Tampa at the end of the season, presuming the arm problem he felt on May 15 is not serious, the strain on the development of young players will become evern more acute. Even if Myers hits it big, they need catching, middle infield and outfield help, presuming Moore takes Price’s role as the ace of the staff.

What Friedman, Maddon and the Rays have done is to maintain one of the best management jobs of the last decade. They did it without developing a position player since Jennings, but beginning with this June’s draft, they will have to begin to draft and develop position players if their run with the game’s elite is going to continue.

Verlander is averaging "just" 93.3 MPH with his fastball, tying him with David Price, Justin Masterson and Derek Holland for highest among American League starters. Darvish also ranks in the top ten, averaging 92.8 MPH. Those lofty radar gun readings are translating into precious little hard contact for opposing hitters:

Lowest opponent slugging percentage on fastballs, 2013

Verlander and Darvish both throw hard, and they're both torturing hitters. That's where the similarities end, though. Check out their respective fastball locations in 2013:

Verlander's fastball location

Detroit's ace dares hitters to handle his searing fastball, throwing far more of them over the plate (56%) than the average MLB starter (52%). Most of those fastballs are belt-or-letter-high: Verlander has tossed just 19% of his heaters down in the zone, well under the 30% MLB average.

Darvish's fastball location

While Verlander's fastball philosophy can be summed up as, "Here it is, just try and hit it," Darvish's approach relies more on deception and location. Texas' ace has thrown just 41% of fastballs over the plate, the lowest clip among qualified starters. He has also thrown 41% of his heaters down in the zone, trailing only Jeremy Hellickson among AL starters.

High and in the zone, low and off the dish...either way, the result is devastating. Good luck, Rangers and Tigers hitters. You'll need it tonight.