Has Matt Holliday helped Albert Pujols?

Matt Holliday’s offer to defer some of his salary in order to help secure Albert Pujols’ future in St. Louis shouldn’t come as a shock. A player widely considered the best right handed hitter in the history of baseball, Pujols’ presence in that lineup is monumental. And for Holliday, batting behind Albert in the Cardinals otherwise average lineup has been beneficial.

Holliday joined the Cardinals midway through the 2009 season via trade with the Oakland A’s. Since that date, his offensive production has seen a moderate bump.

Matt Holliday

	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
4/1/2008 - 7/23/2009	1023	36	.309	.397	.508	.399
7/24/2009 - Present	958	42	.326	.399	.557	.416

Considering he spent his 2008 season in Colorado, the increase in his production after joining the Cards, however slight, is impressive. Yes, the first half of his 2009 season was played in Oakland, a ballpark not friendly to hitters. However, his 2008 and post-trade 2009 numbers are about equal (.417 to .416 wOBA respectively).

While Holliday has benefited from hitting behind Pujols, the latter can’t say the same. Albert Pujols

	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
4/1/2008 - 7/23/2009	1052	71	.347	.459	.678	.482
7/24/2009 - Present	989	55	.318	.419	.595	.438

The drop is even more striking when you consider that Pujols posted a .727 SLG and .494 wOBA in 2009 before the trade, and a .580 SLG and .442 wOBA after it. Perhaps there is no correlation; Pujols’ numbers after the trade are outstanding for any hitter. But it is interesting how they seem to suggest he hasn’t gained any noticeable benefit from having Holliday hit behind him, at least not to this point.

Loney on a Line

James Loney avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.875 million contract on Friday.  Loney's salary is kept low by his lack of power.  What he does do extremely well is put the ball in play on a line.  In 2010 James but the 12th most balls into play as line drives.

Most lines drives, 2010

Hitter	Line Drives	WOBA
Placido Polanco	126	0.657
Robinson Cano	124	0.739
Ichiro Suzuki	123	0.667
Carlos Gonzalez	120	0.802
Austin Jackson	119	0.739
Adrian Beltre	117	0.752
Joe Mauer	115	0.721
Michael Young	115	0.717
Vladimir Guerrero	111	0.742
Chone Figgins	110	0.641
Jose Lopez	110	0.696
James Loney	109	0.745
Daric Barton	108	0.738
Miguel Tejada	108	0.683
Raul Ibanez	107	0.730
Shane Victorino	106	0.725
Marco Scutaro	105	0.735
Jhonny Peralta	105	0.665
Albert Pujols	105	0.880
Aubrey Huff	104	0.763
Adrian Gonzalez	103	0.748
Matt Holliday	102	0.854
Denard Span	101	0.665
Billy Butler	100	0.844

Note that James wOBA on line drives ranks eighth among these players, which puts him on the dividing line between the true power hitters (Pujols, Butler, the Adrians) and the singles hitters (Figgins, Young Suzuki).  Loney's high line drive rates are a constant, as at least 22% of his balls in play went for liners in each of the last three seasons.

Part of that comes from pitchers preferring Loney line drives to home runs.  He hits line drives on the outside half of the plate:

James Loney line drives, 2008-2010He hits home runs on the inside half of the plate, and even off the inside corner:

James Loney home runs, 2008-2010So opponents pitch to his line drive strength, not his home run strength:

James Loney, all pitches, 2008-2010Is it worth it?  James's isolated power stands at .343 on fly balls, .245 on liners.  He collects many more hits on the liners, but they do less damage.  Given his very poor hitting on ground balls (.211 BA, .223 slugging), limiting his power by giving up more line drives appears to be a great tradeoff.

Slow and Steady

Jered Weaver received a large raise on Thursday thanks to his ability to fool batters with his off-speed pitches.  The following graph shows how results vary by speed for the younger Weaver:

Jered Weaver, 2008-2010

This chart drives home the point that major league hitters can handle a fastball. Note that the contact rate is high on his fastball, and at his most common velocity, batters hit it pretty well.

The 78-80 MPH range is where Weaver makes his money, however.  Batters are more likely to swing at the pitch, and miss if they do.  They also make more outs when they put the ball in play.  Weaver throws both a changeup and slider at this speed, with very different movement.  His change moves much like his fastball, toward a left-handed batter with a normal downward drop:

Jered Weaver changeup movement, 2008-2010The slider moves further in and drops off the table:

Jered Weaver Slider, 2008-2010

Weaver throws a changeup that looks like his fastball, so batters chase that.  Over the last three years they've hit .219 off the change versus .246 off the fastball.  If they get a feel for the speed of the changeup, Weaver can drop in the slider and fool them with movement, as batters hit just .190 off that pitch.  The slider is his most devasting pitch, as you can in the wOBA:

Jered Weaver 2008-2010

Pitch	wOBA
Fastball	.333
Changeup	.269
Slider	.232

There's nothing wrong with Jered's fastball.  A .333 wOBA means the league hits about average against him.  That pitch sets up his great ones, and batters look replacement level against Weaver's off-speed offerings.