Ubaldo Jimenez: What Went Wrong? (Part 3)

In the previous post on Ubaldo Jimenez, we noted that his slider was getting hit harder by RHB in the second half of the season.  Not unrelated, he was striking out fewer RHB on the pitch as well.

Before we focus on just his slider versus RHB, let's compare his expected numbers on the pitch for all batters, which factor in all sliders thrown:

Ubaldo Jimenez Sliders vs. All Batters, 2010

	P	eAVG	eOBP	eSLUG	ewOBA	eBB%	eK%
First Half	251	.177	.294	.260	.267	12.6%	32.2%
Second Half	262	.203	.314	.289	.288	12.9%	31.8%

We don't see much difference between his expected numbers from the two halves of the season. His actual line on the pitch went from .130/.259/.174 to .262/.340/.333. The fact that his expected line remained stable while his actual line jumped a bit tells us that he was having trouble using his slider as an out pitch. When we isolate RHB, we see where he had the most trouble.

Ubaldo Jimenez Sliders vs. RHB, 2010

	P	eAVG	eOBP	eSLUG	ewOBA	eBB%	eK%
First Half	180	.196	.298	.283	.275	10.8%	31.9%
Second Half	180	.218	.322	.306	.298	11.9%	29.6%

Again, we see that his slider was fairly effective throughout the season in setting up his other pitches to RHB. But compare this to his numbers on decisive pitches:

Ubaldo Jimenez Sliders vs. RHB, 2010

	P	AVG	OBP	SLUG	wOBA	BB%	K%
First Half	180	.194	.286	.258	.257	8.6%	34.3%
Second Half	180	.313	.389	.406	.375	11.1%	19.4%

Jimenez was having trouble putting RHB away with his slider in the second half as his k-rate dropped while opponents batting average and slugging increased. What's perplexing his how his location of the pitch changed in the second half.

Ubaldo Jimenez Sliders vs. RHB, 2010 (click to enlarge)

In the first half of the season, Ubaldo's slider was over the plate frequently. He apparently got away with this. However, in the second half, he kept the ball away and it got hammered. The only explanation I can think of is that righty batters were fooled more often in the first half and began to adjust in the second. Jimenez tried to keep the slider away, however batters seemed to recognize it easier. There is some evidence to support this as RHB swung and missed at his slider 36.2% in the first half. However, in the second half, that number dropped to 28.6%. Right-handed batters simply recognized his slider better as the season progressed and Jimenez was unable to make the proper adjustments.

Dunn's Weakness

In the book Moneyball, the Athletics front office talks about process.  For example, they cared less about the result of a plate appearance than how the batter got to that result.  They would rather have a batter take an outside pitch than swing at it and get a hit.  By confining swings to the strike zone, batters increased their probability of getting on base, as contact was more likely to result in a hit, and walks would go up as batters refused to swing at balls.

Adam Dunn would likely be a player the Athletics would love.  Look where he swings:

Adam Dunn, swings, 2008-2010.In three of the four quadrants of the strike zone, Dunn does a fantastic job of swinging at balls in the zone.  Even low and outside, he's not that far off.

This is where he takes pitches:

Adam Dunn, taken pitches, 2008-2010.Again, low and outside is the only place where his process is off.  That's where most pitchers throw to him however, and his judgement there created a hole they can exploit:

Adam Dunn, called balls, 2008-2010.Adam gets some good calls on three of the corners, but the middle to low outside pitches belong to the hurlers.  That's where they get him looking at strike three:

Adam Dunn, strikeouts looking, 2008-2010.His chasing of the outside pitch and taking of pitches on the lower-inside corner expands the strike zone and gives opponents a spot to attack.

Ubaldo Jimenez: What Went Wrong? (Part 2)

We previously looked at the change in location of Ubaldo's fastball in the second half of the 2010 season. Judging from only a slight increase in opponents' offense, it seemed as though an increase in elevation was not a problem for him. However, it's important to look at his splits since a pitcher will locate pitches differently for left-handed and right-handed batters.

Ubaldo's fastball was nearly just as effective against LHB in the second half. In fact, he saw a .014 drop in opponents' wOBA. This may have been a result of keeping the pitch away more:

Ubaldo Jimenez Fastballs to LHB (click to enlarge)

Jimenez's biggest problems in the second half came against righties. Check out the change in his location of his fastball:

Ubaldo Jimenez Fastballs to RHB (click to enlarge)

He located his fastball down and over the middle of the plate early on, something he got away with given the movement and velocity he gets on the pitch. However, in the second half he left the ball up more to RHB. This resulted in no HRs, but more hits overall, as well as more walks. While Jimenez also throws a changeup, curveball and splitter, I'm focusing on his fastball and slider since he relies on these pitches far more. However, the totals line below includes all pitches thrown in 2010.

Ubaldo Jimenez vs. RHB, April 5 - July 12

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	wOBA	K%	HR%	BABIP
Totals	232	.190	.259	.265	.242	22.0%	1.4%	.234
Fastball	151	.199	.272	.272	.251	14.6%	1.5%	.221
Slider	35	.194	.286	.258	.257	34.3%	0.0%	.316

Ubaldo Jimenez vs. RHB, July 19 - October 2

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	wOBA	K%	HR%	BABIP
Totals	190	.282	.379	.393	.349	19.5%	1.2%	.352
Fastball	117	.265	.376	.337	.332	16.2%	0.0%	.325
Slider	36	.313	.389	.406	.359	19.4%	3.1%	.375

Both his fastball and slider were hit harder in the second half. As noted in the previous post, he was getting more strikeouts on his fastball. However, this came at the expense of a 4.7% increase in walks overall. His BABIP also saw a large jump on both his primary pitches. He may have been a little lucky in the first half, or unlucky in the second (or both - his BABIP on fastballs/sliders is .279 since 2008). His LD% increased about 2% on fastballs and sliders, but this isn't significant enough to draw any conclusions.

Only 71 plate appearances is a very thin sample size to judge his slider, however that only accounts for plate appearances decided on the pitch. To get a more accurate read, we'll have to take a look at his expected numbers for the pitch, which we'll do in the next post.