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This site utilizes the MLB analytics platform powered by TruMedia Networks

Friday
Jan282011

Focusing DeJesus

Research about clutch hitting usually turns up little evidence that the ability to raise one's game based on the situation is a skill players possess.  First of all, clutch is difficult to define.  By the time you throw out many of the situations fail to qualify, a researcher is left with a small sample, and in a small sample almost anything can happen.

The other thing you notice is that list of the best hitters in a particular situation tend to match the list of the best hitters in any situation.  This list of the players with the best batting average with runners in scoring position over the last three seasons (2008-2010) contains a number of the best hitters in the game.  One name near the top did catch my attention, however, David DeJesus.

David was one of the better hitters on the Royals during this time, but as a leadoff man we don't think of him as a clutch performer.  His job is to get on base for the big bats, after all, yet his batting stats change as the situation is more likely to yield an RBI. With none on, he posted a .283/.351/.433 slash line in that time.  With men on, .328/.383/.459.  Finally, with men in scoring position, his line comes in at .340/.398/.458.  Note what's happening here.  His batting average goes up more than his OBP, and also more than his slugging percentage.  He's replacing both walks and extra base hits with singles.  Looking at his line drive rates in these situations explains why that is happening:

David DeJesus, batting with none on, 2008-2010He hits 45% ground balls, 30% fly balls, and 21% line drives in this situation.

David DeJesus, batting with men on, 2008-2010With men on, his percentage go to 48% ground ball, 23% fly ball and 24% line drives.

David DeJesus, batting with runners in scoring position, 2008-2010Finally, David's percentage with runners in scoring position come in at 48% ground balls, 22% fly balls, and 25% line drives.  His focus seems to shift from hitting the ball in air to hitting the ball through the infield, and he really hits the ball on the nose in the strike zone with an RBI a single away.

Of course, this could still be just a bit of luck.  We're looking at 275 balls in play with runners in scoring position, so luck still plays an enormous role.  Still, if I were to suggest a strategy that resulted in better clutch performance, reducing fly balls and trying for more line drives (especially for a low power hitter) would be the way to go.  It helped DeJesus drive in a very high percentage of the runners he finds on base over the last three years.

Thursday
Jan272011

Lost Balls

The Florida Marlins saw a series of home games moved to Seattle today due to a concert.  This move may actually help the Marlins, since over the last three seasons they produced a higher run differential on the road than at home.

 

SeasonHome Run DifferentialRoad Run Differential
2008 -0.46 0.001
2009 0.17 1.04
2010 0.14 0.23

 

The difference is small, but what really caught my eye when I looked at the data was the lack of walks in games away from Sun Life Stadium. Marlins batters, over the three year period, drew 101 fewer walks away, but knocked out 105 more hits.  That led to a higher BA, but a lower OBP. 

The same was true of Marlins pitchers, with 84 fewer walks issued in home games over that period, while allowing 129 more hits.  Again, they gave up a higher BA, but a lower OBP.  I would guess that players may see the ball better away from Miami.  That way, they are more prone to swing at a border line pitch on the road, getting more hits.  It will be interesting to see if this changes as they move into a new stadium.

Sunday
Jan162011

Masset's Asset

Nick Masset followed up a very good 2009 performance with a slightly above average 2010.  The majority of his peripherals showed decline.  He went from a 174 ERA+ to a 118 ERA+, and his walks and hits per nine increased.  However, he did see a bump in strikeouts, going from 8.3 to 10.0 SO/9.

While his fastball, change, and slider were all less effective to some degree in 2010, his curveball was very dominant last season.  In 2009, opponents hit .115/.179/.154 against his curve, compared to .088/.139/.088 last season.  Even more amazing, Massett threw 241 curveballs to opponents in 2010, up from 117 in 2009.

Top 15 MLB Curveballs by Contact% (Min. 100 PA featuring a curve)

Masset's curve saw the least amount of contact among all MLB pitchers last season.  By a lot.  At 41.5%, it was well below the league average of 72.1%.  His strikeout percentage of 66.7% was also tops among all pitchers' curves.  In fact, his 48 strikeouts on curveballs made up 57.8% of all his K's in 2010.  This is up from 27.1% in 2009 in which he recorded only 18 strikeouts on curveballs.  The downward velocity on his curve also ranked 6th in the majors at 20.2 feet per second.  Lastly, Masset's hook ranked 2nd behind Cliff Lee in wOBA with .115.

He's obviously found his out pitch.