Greinke an All-Star at Preventing Homers

Brewers ace Zack Greinke might not be an All-Star even though ranks among the NL's leaders in ERA+ (146), strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.6) and Wins Above Replacement (2.9). But Greinke can take solace in knowing his impending free agency will make him an absurdly wealthy man, whether in Milwaukee or elsewhere. Like, "Scrooge McDuck diving in a pool of gold coins" rich. Five of Matt Cain's free agent years were valued at about $113 million at a time when he had a career 124 ERA+ in a little over 1,300 innings pitched. Greinke has a career 116 ERA+ in nearly 1,400 innings. He can make a case for $20 million a year.

A big reason why Greinke is enjoying his best season since 2009 and is primed to cash in is that he has cut his home run rate to a career-best 0.4 per nine innings. He's pounding hitters at the knees and generating ground balls like never before.

Check out Greinke's pitch location this season. He's staying low in the zone, rarely hanging a ball above the belt:

Greinke's pitch location, 2012

Greinke has thrown about 58 percent of his pitches low in the zone, the highest rate among all MLB starting pitchers this season. And those low pitches are generating grounders by the bushel. Here's his ground ball rate by pitch location, and then the league average:

Greinke's ground ball rate by pitch location, 2012

Average ground ball rate by pitch location, 2012

By keeping the ball low, Greinke has induced ground balls about 54 percent of the time this season. His career ground ball rate entering the year, by contrast, was a near dead ringer for the league average (44.5 percent).

Tony La Russa might not fully appreciate Greinke's great work. But this 28-year-old with strikeout stuff and newly-found ground ball tendencies is at the top of many a GM's wish list.

Greinke's Many Curveballs

A free agent after the 2012 season, Zack Greinke is on the cusp of signing a mega free agent deal. The Brewers righty is 28 years old and has proven to be one of the game's best, most durable starters over the past four seasons. Greinke ranks 12th among starting pitchers in both ERA+ (126) and Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement (17.2) since 2008, easily topping 200 innings from 2008-2010 before falling short this past year after cracking a rib during a pickup hoops game.

But I'm guessing Greinke already knew those things. He's currently representing himself, after all, and he might throw the league a curve by going into free agency agentless. Greinke is no stranger to throwing others for a loop -- just take a look at his curveball.

Greinke has thrown his curve at an average of 74.8 mph since 2008, but that doesn't tell the whole story. He really has about five or six different curves, thrown at anywhere from 59 mph all the way up to 87 mph. Take a look at Greinke's curveball distribution, by speed:

Curveball Speed	Pct. Of Total Curves Thrown
Less than 60 mph	0.3%
61-65 mph	3.0%
66-70 mph	17.0%
71-75 mph	32.3%
76-80 mph	24.3%
81+ mph	23.1%

Greinke uses his slow, medium and fast curveballs for different purposes. At the far ends of the spectrum, his slow, looping curve thrown at 61-65 mph and his power curve at 81+ mph are thrown out of the strike zone and are used to get chases. From 66-80 mph, Greinke throws his curve for strikes:

Curveball Speed	Pct. Thrown in Strike Zone	Chase Pct.
61-65 mph	34%	29%
66-70 mph	49%	22%
71-75 mph	56%	18%
76-80 mph	52%	23%
81+ mph	36%	42%

As you might expect, Greinke uses his slow (61-65 mph) and power (81+ mph) curves when he's ahead of the hitter. Seventy percent of his slow curves have been thrown in pitcher's counts, and 60 percent of his power curves.

If he gets through 2012 intact, Greinke could be looking at a $100 million contract next winter -- we just don't know where he'll sign or who will negotiate that pact. GMs, like hitters, are left wondering what Greinke will do next.

Greinke and BABIP

Zack Greinke of the Milwaukee Brewers will finish the season with a high BABIP.  He enters the action Wednesday night with a .325 mark, 13th highest among major league qualifiers.  Batting average on balls in play for a pitcher is often influenced by the defense behind the pitcher, and by luck.  In Greinke's case, he may share a great deal of responsibility for his high BABIP.

Take a look at Greinke's BABIP by the type of count, along with his percentile ranks:

Grienke 2011	BABIP	Percentile Rank
Hitter Counts	0.378	12%
Pitcher Counts	0.299	36%
Even Counts	0.320	30%

When Greinke is ahead or even in the count, his BABIP is poor but not terrible.  When he falls behind, however, hitters smash the ball.  Why?

When Zack gets ahead in the count, he uses his slider, which dives out of the strike zone:

Zack Greinke, pitch frequency in pitcher counts, 2011 season.When he falls behind in the count, he abandons the slider and throws fastballs in the strike zone:

Zack Greinke, pitch frequency in hitter counts, 2011 season.Greinke's not trying to fool batters, he's trying not to walk them.  A little history is important here.  When Zack played for the Royals, Brian Bannister pitched with him.  Bannister understood sabermetrics, including the idea that a pitcher was primarily responsible for walks, home runs and strikeouts.  If a pitcher minimized BB and HR, and maximized Ks, he then just needed to let the defense take care of the rest.

To Zack, a .378 BABIP in hitters counts means the opposition is making an out over 60% of the time.  That's much better than a walk, where the batter reaches base 100% of the time.  Sure, the Brewers could use a better defense behind him, but given his 15-6 record and 3.86 ERA. it appears Zack made the right choice.