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Entries in Yovani Gallardo (3)

Wednesday
Jun122013

B. Chuck: Yovani Gallardo, the 1000 K pitcher

This week,  Yovani Gallardo joined the Brewers' 1000 strikeout club. Gallardo has 899 whiffs since 2008

Brewers franchise leaders in strikeouts

Rk Player SO From To G GS CG SHO W L W-L% SV IP ERA
1 Ben Sheets 1206 2001 2008 221 221 18 4 86 83 .509 0 1428.0 3.72
2 Teddy Higuera 1081 1985 1994 213 205 50 12 94 64 .595 0 1380.0 3.61
3 Yovani Gallardo 1000 2007 2013 165 162 4 3 74 49 .602 0 998.0 3.72
4 Jim Slaton 929 1971 1983 364 268 69 19 117 121 .492 11 2025.1 3.86
5 Moose Haas 800 1976 1985 245 231 55 8 91 79 .535 2 1542.0 4.03
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used Generated 6/11/2013.

Top 10 MLB Active leaders in strikeouts

There are 56 active pitchers with at least 1000 strikeouts
Rk Player SO From To G GS W L W-L% SV IP H BB ERA Tm
1 Andy Pettitte 2368 1995 2013 511 501 250 145 .633 0 3192.0 3309 1001 3.85 NYY-HOU
2 CC Sabathia 2297 2001 2013 397 397 197 107 .648 0 2659.1 2462 787 3.52 CLE-TOT-NYY
3 Roy Halladay 2101 1998 2013 410 384 201 104 .659 1 2721.2 2624 573 3.37 TOR-PHI
4 A.J. Burnett 2070 1999 2013 359 354 141 127 .526 0 2252.0 2041 923 4.01 FLA-TOR-NYY-PIT
5 Ryan Dempster 2001 1998 2013 560 335 128 130 .496 87 2291.1 2243 1027 4.34 FLA-TOT-CIN-CHC-BOS
6 Johan Santana 1988 2000 2012 360 284 139 78 .641 1 2025.2 1726 567 3.20 MIN-NYM
7 Bartolo Colon 1882 1997 2013 394 388 179 124 .591 0 2476.2 2482 783 4.01 CLE-TOT-CHW-ANA-LAA-BOS-NYY-OAK
8 Tim Hudson 1862 1999 2013 420 419 201 110 .646 0 2766.0 2581 829 3.45 OAK-ATL
9 Barry Zito 1836 2000 2013 412 406 164 136 .547 0 2505.0 2275 1030 3.93 OAK-SFG
10 Roy Oswalt 1818 2001 2012 356 335 163 96 .629 0 2213.0 2150 511 3.28 HOU-TOT-PHI-TEX
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used Generated 6/12/2013.
Wednesday
Jan162013

The Fantasy Baseball Diary: Roy Halladay

Last year Roy Halladay had a down year compared to his standards. However, could you pick out 2012 in a lineup without the typical surface stats such as wins and losses?

Each row represents one year of performance between 2009-2012. 

If you guessed B, you’re correct.

For your reference A is 2011, C is 2009 and D is 2010.

I was surprised to see there wasn’t a big difference between last year and his three previous years. However, upon closer inspection there were concerning trends about 2012 when compared to average of the three years prior: the strikeout rate (K/9) decreased 6%, walk rate (BB/9) increased 66%, home run rate (HR/9) increased 49% and the velocity has decreased year-over-year from 93.74 mph in 2009 to 91.15 in 2012.After a subpar season, Halladay is looking to bounce back in 2013.

The biggest difference about 2012 was he generated more fly balls and less ground balls, which could be the reason for the increased number of home runs allowed.

Do more fly balls equate to more runs?

If we all can take out our sabermetric textbooks we’ll see ground balls are a pitcher's best friend. Ground balls create 0.05 runs per out, fly balls create 0.13 runs per out and line drives create 1.26 runs per out. Therefore, by increasing his fly ball rate, he increased his run expectancy.

Can Halladay generate more ground balls?

The decrease in ground balls coincides with the decreased effectiveness of the cutter, the pitch he throws 40% of the time:

It’s easy to point out the decline of velocity as the reason for the cutter becoming more hittable, but check out the location of the cutter in 2012 compared to the three years prior. Do you notice any differences?

Compare the differences in pitch location of Halladay's cutter:

The cutter was thrown more frequently up, in the middle of zone. Combine that with a decrease in velocity, it’s no surprise opposing hitters feasted on the cutter.

Will Halladay bounce back?

Prior to last year, Halladay was seen as the best pitcher in baseball because of his superior command, the ability to mix his pitches and to change speeds. Overall, the 2012 season was a mixture of bad luck, injuries and drop in ability, which created a perfect storm of mediocrity. The days of Halladay providing the value of a fantasy ace are no longer in play, but if he can locate his cutter he can still be a great pitcher.

Currently he’s going as the 20th (80th overall) pitcher overall at Mock Draft Central, right behind C.C. Sabathia and just ahead of Yovani Gallardo. That’s too early in the draft because there’s no upside with that pick.

For the pick to be valuable Halladay would have to hit Bill James’ projections:

There are still too many question marks to take him 20th, but if he slips beyond the 27th pitcher (C.J. Wilson), he’ll be a tremendous value.

Thursday
Mar102011

The Clutch Pitcher

Over the last two seasons, no pitcher did a better job of preventing hits with runners in scoring position than Yovani Gallardo.  What's interesting about this stat is that Yovanni's approach to hitters indicates this might be more than luck.

First, look at how Gallardo pitches to hitters with the bases empty.

Yovani Gallardo, bases empty, 2009-2010.

(In these heat maps, pitch location is on the left, pitch movement on the right.)

The thing to note here is that Gallardo attacks the strike zone.  He pitches to contact in the sense he doesn't walk batters in this situation only 8.8% of the time.  He gets strikeouts about 25% of the time, and batters hit .244 in this situation.  With no one on, Gallardo challenges hitters.

The pattern changes with men in scoring position:

Yovani Gallardo, runners in scoring position, 2009-2010.Not here that Gallardo works more toward the edges, leaving a low frequency swath down the middle of the strike zone.  In addition, he throws more pitches with downward movement.  The upshot is he walks more, 15.1%, strikes out a tiny bit more, 26.2%, but because he works away from the middle of the plate, batters hit just .188 against him in this situation.  He's willing to trade walks for fewer hits, since walks won't do as much damage in that particular situation.

Can this last?  His BABIP allowed with runners in scoring position is an incredibly low .228.  That should be unsustainable.  Yovani does show batters something very different compared to pitching with the bases empty, and maybe that's enough to keep hitters off balance, leading to positive outcomes for the Brewers.