Strasburg's season comes to an end...and not a moment too soon

Stephen Strasburg is done for the year and his Washington Nationals teammates will presumably progress to the postseason without him, the only question now is how long will they continue to play?

Strasburg is 15-6 record this season with a 3.16 earned run average, striking out 197 in 159.1 innings. Those numbers only tell part of the story that has two sub-sections.

Strasburg made 28 starts this season and it is worth looking at his first 14 starts versus his last 14 starts.

Here are Strasburg's first 14 starts April 5, 2012 to June 20, 2012 versus Strasburg's second 14 starts June 25, 2012 to Sept 7, 2012:

	First 14 starts	Second 14 starts
Team result	12-2	7-7
Strasburg result	9-1	6-5
ERA	2.46	3.94
Innings pitched	84.0	75.1
Batters faced	332	321
Pitches thrown	1332	1275
Hits	65	71
Walks	22	26
Strikeouts	110	87
Runs	26	36
Earned runs	23	33
Home runs	6	9
BA against	.214	.247
OBP	.274	.308
Slugging	.313	.408
OPS	.586	.716

Here is the graphic look at Strasburg's first 14 games:

Here is the graphic look at Strasburg's second 14 games: 

And as you can see there is a significant difference in Strasburg's effectiveness as the season has progressed.

It got worse in his last five starts:

In his last five starts he had a 4.50 ERA to go along with his 1.346 WHIP

Here is Rick Peterson, director of pitching development for the Baltimore Orioles, with the great Ed Randall of WFAN on September 8 explaining the rationale behind shutting down Strasburg at this point. Peterson has contended that had the Nationals started Strasburg's season on April 28 and this would not have been such a controversy.

After all is said and done, I wish the Nationals well and I have to feel this was a smart decision for the long-term Strasburg investment particularly when you realize that in the short-term it may not have been that bad a baseball decision.

Back-to-Back six homer games for the Nationals

Washington tied a franchise record with six home runs set Tuesday night as they went multiple deep routing the Cubs, 9-1.

Last night, Bryce Harper hit two homers, Roger Bernadina, Adam LaRoche, Ian Desmond, and Danny Espinosa hit one each.

Tuesday night, LaRoche hit two, Desmond, Jesus Flores, Tyler Moore, and Ryan Zimmerman each hit one.

Here are the Expo/National games in which they hit at least six homers:

Rk	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	HR
1	2012-09-05	WSN	CHC	W 9-1	6
2	2012-09-04	WSN	CHC	W 11-5	6
3	2011-05-20	WSN	BAL	W 17-5	6
4	2002-08-21	MON	COL	W 13-5	6
5	1997-08-23	MON	CHC	W 9-5	6
6	1997-05-04	MON	SDP	W 9-3	6
7	1978-07-30	MON	ATL	W 19-0	8

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/6/2012.

Here are the games in which a team has hit at least six homers this season:

Rk	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	HR
1	2012-09-05	WSN	CHC	W 9-1	6
2	2012-09-04	WSN	CHC	W 11-5	6
3	2012-06-20	ARI	SEA	W 14-10	6
4	2012-06-19	TOR	MIL	W 10-9	6
5	2012-04-17	TEX	BOS	W 18-3	6

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/6/2012.

Harper Hampered By Low Stuff

With Mike Trout going all Willie Mays on the American League and his precocious NL counterpart struggling, the Bryce Harper hype machine has died down considerably. Harper's OPS+ has dipped to exactly league average (100). That's still amazing for a 19-year-old -- just five teenagers in MLB history (Mel Ott, Tony Conigliaro, Johnny Lush, Ken Griffey Jr. and Edgar Renteria) have posted better batting marks while getting 400-plus plate appearances in a season. But Harper has undoubtedly been hampered by low stuff during his rookie year.

Here's Harper's contact rate by pitch location, and then the league average. He's connecting often on high and middle pitches. Stuff at the knees is another matter entirely:

Harper's contact rate by pitch location, 2012

Average contact rate by pitch location, 2012

Harper's miss rate on high pitches (17.3%) is much lower than the MLB average (21%). He whiffs more than most on middle pitches (15.6% versus the 12.9% average), but you'll see in a moment that he more than makes up for it with epic power.

On low pitches, however, Harper's 41.2% miss rate is far north of the 31.6% MLB average. And when he does make contact, it's rarely the kind of hellacious, seam-ripping hit we've come to expect:

Harper's slugging percentage by pitch location, 2012

Average slugging percentage by pitch location, 2012

He's slugging .444 against high pitches (.392 average) and a robust .604 against middle stuff (.481 average). Yet when pitchers pound him at the knees, Harper has been one of the worst in the game:

Lowest slugging percentage vs. low pitches, 2012

Batter	Slugging Pct.
Elvis Andrus	.134
Brandon Crawford	.147
Jamey Carroll	.156
Rickie Weeks	.159
Carlos Pena	.178
Cameron Maybin	.208
Corey Hart	.220
Bryce Harper	.236
Michael Bourn	.239
Jason Kipnis	.242
MLB Avg.	.335

Opponents may be picking up on Harper's low-ball struggles: He has seen a season-high 47% of pitches thrown down in the zone this month (the MLB average is a little under 42%; Harper saw low pitches 41.4% of the time from April-July). There's little reason to think Washington's slugging wunderkind won't eventually figure out how to crush pitches thrown down. But in the meantime, going low is a winning strategy against Harper.