Scatter Charts: Did Moneyball Die in 2012?

We recently gained access to a new scatter chart tool that allows us to look at related statistics. During some initial research we were very surprised to find that in 2012 a team walks were not statistically related to runs scored.

2012 Team walks to runs scored

However, if you look at 2011, 2010 and 2009 you can see the significant relationship between walks and runs scored.

This prompts the question: Did Moneyball die in 2012?

The caveat being that the at the time Moneyball was written, the goal was to exploit market inefficiency, which was walks at the time.

Compare the differences

In 2012, walks were likely over-priced since more of them didn't correlate to scoring more runs, since a team potentially gives up hits up to get them.  

What are your thoughts?

Pence's Impatience Costing Him with Giants

Hunter Pence, by all accounts, is an enthusiastic fellow. Pence runs out routine grounders like he's squaring off against Usain Bolt. He's known to crash into walls and even the occasional sliding glass window. But Pence has been a little too gung-ho in the batter's box since being traded from the Phillies to the Giants on July 31. And it's costing him and his new club.

Pence wasn't exactly a strike-zone guru with Philly, but both his 8.4% walk rate and 19.3% strikeout rate were right around the MLB average in 2012. With San Francisco, however, Pence has drawn a walk just 4.8% of the time and he has punched out 26.2%.

With the Phillies, Pence swung at plenty of high pitches out of the zone. Despite that, his overall 29.2% chase rate was close to the MLB average (28.5%):

Pence's swing rate by pitch location with the Phillies, 2012

Since changing coasts, Pence's strike zone has practically stretched from Philly to San Fran:

Pence's swing rate by pitch location with the Giants, 2012

 

Pence has chased 37% of pitches thrown out of the zone in San Francisco. He's 1-for-24 on those outside pitches, striking out 16 times in the process. While Pence's pep endears him to teammates, he's got to tone it down at home plate to help the Giants' playoff prospects.

Yu Still Getting Squeezed at the Knees

In late April, we took a closer look at Yu Darvish's high walk rate and showed that the Rangers' putative ace was getting squeezed by umpires. Despite placing more pitches in the strike zone than the average starter, Darvish issued lots of free passes in part because he had the lowest called strike rate on in-zone pitches taken by hitters.

It's now early June, and Darvish's walk rate remains a whopping 5.4 per nine innings pitched. Yu's ability to miss bats has helped him remain an above-average pitcher (119 ERA+), but the only qualified starters with more BB/9 are Ubaldo Jimenez, Daniel Bard and Kyle Drabek. Unfortunately for Darvish and the Rangers, umps are still squeezing him, particularly on pitches thrown at the knees.

Darvish has received a called strike from Big Blue on in-zone pitches taken by the batter 71.3 percent of the time. The MLB average for starters, by contrast, is 79.8 percent. No other starter has been squeezed more frequently than Darvish:

Ten lowest called strike rates for starting pitchers on in-zone pitches taken by hitters

Pitcher	Called strike rate on in-zone pitches taken
Yu Darvish	71.3%
Henderson Alvarez	71.8%
Jake Arrieta	72.0%
Wei-Yin Chen	72.8%
Derek Holland	73.2%
Clayton Kershaw	73.2%
Justin Masterson	73.6%
Ricky Romero	73.8%
Brian Matusz	74.0%
Chris Capuano	74.6%

Here is Darvish's called strike rate on in-zone pitches taken by the hitter, and then the league average for starting pitchers in 2012. You'll note that Darvish has a big blue spot low in the strike zone:

Darvish's called strike rate on in-zone pitches taken by the hitter, 2012

 Average called strike rate for starting pitchers on in-zone pitches taken by the hitter, 2012 Darvish's called strike rate on in-zone pitches taken is below-average on high pitches, but it's the low stuff that isn't getting any love from umpires:

Darvish's called strike rate on in-zone pitches, by location

Pitch location	Called strike rate on in-zone pitches taken	MLB Avg. for SP
High	67.3	74.3
Middle	96.4	95.3
Low	56.1	68.6

Compounding matters, Darvish has thrown more of his in-zone pitches low each month: 34.4 percent in April, 36.4 percent in May and 37.3 percent last night in a six-walk loss to the Oakland A's. In terms of pitch type, Darvish is getting squeezed mostly with his fastball, slider and cutter:

Darvish's called strike rate on in-zone pitches, by pitch type

Pitch	Called Strike Rate on in-zone pitches taken	MLB Avg. for SP
Fastball	71.4	80.3
Slider	66	79.3
Cutter	65.4	79.4
Curveball	84.2	81.6
Splitter	88.9	83.2

It's hard to say what, if anything, Darvish and the Rangers can do about umpires' stinginess so far. Darvish isn't getting the low strike, and he's a pitcher who likes to keep the ball down (45 percent of his pitches have been thrown low overall, compared to the 41 percent average for starters). Maybe Mike Maddux and Ron Washington can make a point to lobby Big Blue before Yu's starts.