Vernon Wells to join in the New York decline

Over the last five seasons, Vernon Wells has hit .258 with 102 homers, 327 RBI, with a .306 OBP, .448 slugging pct., and .754 OPS. He has struck out 337 times in 2587 PA.

That, of course, only tells part of the of the story.

When you look at the five seasons from 2002-06, Wells hit .288 with 139 homers, 487 RBI, with a .336 OBP, .499 slugging pct., and .835 OPS. He struck out 424 times in 3328 PA.

The differences are astounding. 

Still just 34, Wells is approaching the final two years of the seven-year, $126 million contract he signed with the Jays in 2008. They traded him to the Angels before the start of the 2011 season and these two years have been awful, with Wells hitting just .222 wth 36 homers.

Wells with the Angels

Over the last two seasons, he's hit .218 against the fastball, .218 against the change-up, .155 against the curve, and .235 against the slider.

On to New York

Now, he is heading to the Yankees with the New Yorkers responsible or around $13M of the remaining two years of the contract and there are discussions being held as to whether New York can pay most of that in the 2013 season with the hope of getting under 189M prior to the start of the 2014 season.

Over the last five seasons, Wells hasn't shown much in New York, but it is better than in some other locales

Wells has hit .277 (32-118) with seven homers (six hit 2008-10) and 21 strikeouts.

Stranger things have happened, but all indications are the Yanks have not done much to improve themselves with this move, but only time will tell.

Down the Wells

Vernon Wells of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim own the lowest OBP in the major leagues among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances.  Looking over various numbers for Vernon over the last four seasons, you can see the deterioration:

Vernon Wells	OBP	K%	BB%	Strk%	Ball%
2008 Season	0.343	0.10	0.06	0.629	0.371
2009 Season	0.311	0.13	0.07	0.621	0.379
2010 Season	0.331	0.13	0.08	0.625	0.375
2011 Season	0.241	0.17	0.04	0.658	0.342

Vernon Wells	OBP	BABIP	Swng%	InPl%	Miss%	Chas%	Line%
2008 Season	0.343	0.293	0.467	0.526	0.160	0.321	0.165
2009 Season	0.311	0.279	0.461	0.506	0.173	0.311	0.162
2010 Season	0.331	0.272	0.498	0.488	0.208	0.313	0.177
2011 Season	0.241	0.207	0.510	0.457	0.218	0.345	0.126

In the three previous seasons, Wells did not post a great OBP, but it wasn't terrible, either.  They varied from a bit above average to a bit below average.  Both his strikeout and walk rates were rising slowing over the three previous seasons, but in 2011 the K rate sky rocketed while the walk rate fell in half.    That's not surprising given that his strike and ball rates went in the same direction.

More strikeouts mean fewer balls in play, so Wells would need more of those finding holes for hits to make up for the Ks.  Instead, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) dropped 65 points.  Vernon suffers the double whammy, fewer balls in play, and a much lower percentage going for hits.

Why?  His approach at the plate is off.  He's swinging at more pitches, and missing on more of those swings.  Part of that comes from chasing more balls out of the strike zone.  When he does make contact, few of those balls result in line drives, the type of ball in play most likely to result in a hit.

Often times, a low BABIP is indicative of bad luck.  Given all the statistics that deteriorated for Wells this year, this looks more like a drop in skill level than a fluke bad season.

Alls not too Wells with Vernon

When the Angels acquired Vernon Wells from the Blue Jays they had two goals: one, to move the then disappointing Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera; and two, to compensate for losing the Adrian Beltre sweepstakes. They certainly had to anticipate they would get some semblance of the player who through 12 seasons had averaged .280 and had an .804 OPS.

They didn't get it.

So far this season, Wells has a .214 batting average and a .640 OPS.

Here is the Wells 2011 slugging picture

Wells is 70-for-327Clearly, Wells is doing practically nothing on the outside of the plate.

On the outside

Wells is hitting .188 on the outer zoneThe power numbers on the outside portion of the plate are even sadder than his batting average. He has just three doubles, one triple, and just one homer coming from that zone.

Wells is not doing well on inside pitches either.

Wells is hitting .187 on the inner zonePower numbers on inside pitches are clearly better with two doubles and seven homers, but still not great.

Wells is really struggling against righties

Against righties, Wells is hitting .179 with a .545 OPSWhat perhaps is most surprising is that this veteran hitter is overwhelmed when he has two strikes on him at any point in the count.

With two strikes

With two skrikes on him, Vernon is hitting .125It is crunch time in this season and while Wells is not going to end up with great numbers, he still has shown the skills in the past to have a hot final seven weeks. If he does, it could still end very well for the Angels in their race for the postseason.