The struggles of Ubaldo Jimenez

At this point last season, Ubaldo Jimenez of the Colorado Rockies, was being compared to Bob Gibson. On May 23, 201, Ubaldo was 8-1 with 0.99 ERA. He finished the first half of the season 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA. His fastball was electric and his splitter could only be described as "nasty."

What a fifference a year makes. Following yesterday's loss to the Brewers, Jimenez is now 0-4 with a 5.44 ERA and we can graphically show you why. Control is clearly the issue for Ubaldo who had thrown 63.1 innings last season at this time and had walked 23 while this season he has 28 walks, but in just 44.2 innings. Equally as important is his absence of control in the strike zone.

Let's look at the fastball first.

Here is the fastball in the first half of 2010:

Look at his control and location. He clearly was nailing it, time and again.

Now let's look at the fastball from this season:

You can see the ball is drifting all over the place.

Now, look at Jimenez's splitter.

Look at the nastiness of the splitter in the first half of 2010:

That pitch, that looks like a fastball as it approaches the batter, drops off the table as it enters the zone resulting in swings and misses (34.3%).

Now look at the splitter this season:

Swings and misses are down to 21.7% because those higher pitches are much easier to hit and ptch is much easier to read.

The Rockies are now just a game over .500 and if they truly want to control in this division, Jimenez has got to get his control first.

Ubaldo Jimenez: What Went Wrong? (Part 3)

In the previous post on Ubaldo Jimenez, we noted that his slider was getting hit harder by RHB in the second half of the season.  Not unrelated, he was striking out fewer RHB on the pitch as well.

Before we focus on just his slider versus RHB, let's compare his expected numbers on the pitch for all batters, which factor in all sliders thrown:

Ubaldo Jimenez Sliders vs. All Batters, 2010

	P	eAVG	eOBP	eSLUG	ewOBA	eBB%	eK%
First Half	251	.177	.294	.260	.267	12.6%	32.2%
Second Half	262	.203	.314	.289	.288	12.9%	31.8%

We don't see much difference between his expected numbers from the two halves of the season. His actual line on the pitch went from .130/.259/.174 to .262/.340/.333. The fact that his expected line remained stable while his actual line jumped a bit tells us that he was having trouble using his slider as an out pitch. When we isolate RHB, we see where he had the most trouble.

Ubaldo Jimenez Sliders vs. RHB, 2010

	P	eAVG	eOBP	eSLUG	ewOBA	eBB%	eK%
First Half	180	.196	.298	.283	.275	10.8%	31.9%
Second Half	180	.218	.322	.306	.298	11.9%	29.6%

Again, we see that his slider was fairly effective throughout the season in setting up his other pitches to RHB. But compare this to his numbers on decisive pitches:

Ubaldo Jimenez Sliders vs. RHB, 2010

	P	AVG	OBP	SLUG	wOBA	BB%	K%
First Half	180	.194	.286	.258	.257	8.6%	34.3%
Second Half	180	.313	.389	.406	.375	11.1%	19.4%

Jimenez was having trouble putting RHB away with his slider in the second half as his k-rate dropped while opponents batting average and slugging increased. What's perplexing his how his location of the pitch changed in the second half.

Ubaldo Jimenez Sliders vs. RHB, 2010 (click to enlarge)

In the first half of the season, Ubaldo's slider was over the plate frequently. He apparently got away with this. However, in the second half, he kept the ball away and it got hammered. The only explanation I can think of is that righty batters were fooled more often in the first half and began to adjust in the second. Jimenez tried to keep the slider away, however batters seemed to recognize it easier. There is some evidence to support this as RHB swung and missed at his slider 36.2% in the first half. However, in the second half, that number dropped to 28.6%. Right-handed batters simply recognized his slider better as the season progressed and Jimenez was unable to make the proper adjustments.

Ubaldo Jimenez: What Went Wrong? (Part 2)

We previously looked at the change in location of Ubaldo's fastball in the second half of the 2010 season. Judging from only a slight increase in opponents' offense, it seemed as though an increase in elevation was not a problem for him. However, it's important to look at his splits since a pitcher will locate pitches differently for left-handed and right-handed batters.

Ubaldo's fastball was nearly just as effective against LHB in the second half. In fact, he saw a .014 drop in opponents' wOBA. This may have been a result of keeping the pitch away more:

Ubaldo Jimenez Fastballs to LHB (click to enlarge)

Jimenez's biggest problems in the second half came against righties. Check out the change in his location of his fastball:

Ubaldo Jimenez Fastballs to RHB (click to enlarge)

He located his fastball down and over the middle of the plate early on, something he got away with given the movement and velocity he gets on the pitch. However, in the second half he left the ball up more to RHB. This resulted in no HRs, but more hits overall, as well as more walks. While Jimenez also throws a changeup, curveball and splitter, I'm focusing on his fastball and slider since he relies on these pitches far more. However, the totals line below includes all pitches thrown in 2010.

Ubaldo Jimenez vs. RHB, April 5 - July 12

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	wOBA	K%	HR%	BABIP
Totals	232	.190	.259	.265	.242	22.0%	1.4%	.234
Fastball	151	.199	.272	.272	.251	14.6%	1.5%	.221
Slider	35	.194	.286	.258	.257	34.3%	0.0%	.316

Ubaldo Jimenez vs. RHB, July 19 - October 2

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	wOBA	K%	HR%	BABIP
Totals	190	.282	.379	.393	.349	19.5%	1.2%	.352
Fastball	117	.265	.376	.337	.332	16.2%	0.0%	.325
Slider	36	.313	.389	.406	.359	19.4%	3.1%	.375

Both his fastball and slider were hit harder in the second half. As noted in the previous post, he was getting more strikeouts on his fastball. However, this came at the expense of a 4.7% increase in walks overall. His BABIP also saw a large jump on both his primary pitches. He may have been a little lucky in the first half, or unlucky in the second (or both - his BABIP on fastballs/sliders is .279 since 2008). His LD% increased about 2% on fastballs and sliders, but this isn't significant enough to draw any conclusions.

Only 71 plate appearances is a very thin sample size to judge his slider, however that only accounts for plate appearances decided on the pitch. To get a more accurate read, we'll have to take a look at his expected numbers for the pitch, which we'll do in the next post.