The Change in Lincecum

Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants pitched poorly so far in June. He continues to strike out a ton of batters, but it's not leading to a low batting average allowed.  The difference between Tim now and the Lincecum of March through May is the location of his change up.

Tim Lincecum, change up location, March through May 2011.Notice that Tim threw the pitch out of the strike zone.  Coming in eight miles an hour slower than his fastball, hitters expected a pitch in the zone and would swing and miss.

Tim Lincecum, contact rate against the change up, March-May 2011.Batters could not square up the pitch as they went 0 for 31 against the change through the end of May with 15 strikeouts.

Once June came around, Lincecum started leaving the pitch relatively up:

Tim Lincecum, change up location, June 2011Tim appears to be throwing the pitch the same way, as an examination of the spin showed no obvious changes.  With the pitch up in the strike zone, however, batters are making contact.

Tim Lincecum, contact rate against the changeup, June 2011.Batters are recognizing this pitch better, and the ball more likely ends up in a better spot to hit.  Hitters are now 5 for 14 against the pitch, .357 with four strikeouts.  Lincecum is no longer fooling batters with the pitch.

Breaking down Tim Lincecum's Changeup

It goes without saying that Tim Lincecum has one of the best changeups in the game.  Since 2008, batters have only made contact on 55.5 percent of their swings, good for 4th best in the league among pitchers throwing at least 500 changeups.  Lincecum has also induced a high swing rate of 59.0 percent over that period, good for 5th best in the league.  The combination of the two speaks volumes to the quality of his change, as Lincecum has been able to successfully fool batters with the pitch, getting them to both swing and miss frequently.

As can be expected with any changeup, the more downward movement you get on the pitch, the harder it is to hit.  Lincecum's change has averaged 15.8 feet per second of downward velocity when crossing the plate since the beginning of the 2008 season, but when put in play, the ball averaged an entire foot less of vertical movement.

Here's a breakdown of his changeup by vertical movement (PVZ):

Tim Lincecum Changeup 2008-2010

PVZ	P	VEL	CNTCT%	xK%	xBB%	HR%	xwOBA
≤13 ft/s	224	83.4	82.9%	33.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.293
13.1 - 14 ft/s	234	83.2	79.9%	31.2%	10.1%	1.1%	.274
14.1 - 15 ft/s	290	83.3	68.9%	36.7%	7.0%	1.8%	.267
15.1 - 16 ft/s	323	83.4	62.5%	41.7%	7.1%	0.0%	.221
16.1 - 17 ft/s	343	83.4	44.6%	46.3%	7.4%	0.0%	.207
17.1 - 18 ft/s	249	83.7	34.0%	48.7%	10.0%	0.0%	.214
18.1 - 19 ft/s	177	83.4	14.3%	50.8%	10.3%	0.0%	.203
≥19 ft/s	178	83.6	11.9%	46.4%	14.4%	0.0%	.252
Total	2018	83.4	55.5%	41.7%	9.5%	0.7%	.240

It's quite telling based on contact rate alone how much more effective the change is when it has more downward velocity. It's important to note that a changeup with less vertical movement will more often end up higher in the zone, as those with more movement often end up down in the zone. So you're bound to get less contact with changeups that end up scuffing the plate than those that float over the strike zone. But as his expected K-Rate indicates (as well as his overall swing percentage), Lincecum is getting batters to swing at those changeups down in the zone, resulting in a lot of strikeouts.

The plummeting xwOBA that accompanies the increase in downward velocity on Lincecum's change is impressive. With 15 feet per second of movement or more, batters essentially can do nothing with his change. The expected walk rate jumps a bit with more than 17 ft/s of movement, and that is mainly due to the number of those changeups that fall out of the strike zone for balls. However, the actual walk rate on those changeups is around 7.0%, which is still lower than the 8.2% walk rate Lincecum holds on all pitches since 2008.

NL Changeup Rankings

2010 NL Changeup Rankings by wOBAThe above table lists the top changeup pitchers in the NL ranked by wOBA with a minimum 100 plate appearances decided by the pitch.  Tonight's starters in game 5 of the NLCS both make the cut.

2010 NL Changeup Rankings by OBPNote: Tim Lincecum is ranked 16th in changeup OBP.  He missed out on the above list by about ten-thousandth of a point.  However, he does have the third best strikeout rate on changeups among NL starters, behind only Manny Parra and Stephen Strasburg.

2010 NL Changeup Rankings by Strikeout Rate