InDepth Spotlight: Brad Penny vs. Nelson Cruz

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The Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers square off this afternoon.  Brad Penny will have his hands full with a dangerous Rangers lineup.  Keep an eye on the Penny and Nelson Cruz matchup.  The above graphic shows all data dating back to 2008.  Cruz gets a lot of big hits up in the zone, and Penny tends to give up more hits there.

It will be interesting to see if Penny tries to come in on Cruz at all.  He's been fairly successful hitting that low inside corner against right-handed batters, holding them to a .136 batting average and .227 slugging percentage since 2008.  However, Cruz has done a lot of damage on pitches down and in from righties over that same period, producing a .649 SLG% and a 10.5% home run rate.

Will Penny challenge him?

Derek Holland Pitching on the Edge

Derek Holland pitched well in his first two starts, posting a 2.25 ERA.  He showed better control than in his first two seasons, but more importantly kept the ball in the park, having yet to allow a home run.  So far, the big change for Derek comes from working better on the edges of the plate. The following heat maps show his pitching against right-handed batters, which he sees much more often.

First, notice the location of Derek's fastball compared to his first two years in the majors (click all images for a larger version):

Derek Holland fastball location vs. RHB, 2009-2010 on the left, first two starts of 2011 on the right.Holland is working inside and on the outer half of the plate, instead of right down the middle.  This actually sets up his off-speed pitches well.  He used to leave his changeup over the plate:

Derek Holland change-up location vs. RHB, 2009-2010 on the left, first two starts of 2011 on the right.He still catches the plate with the change, but more toward the outside edge.  Thrown correctly, this pitch should look like his outside fastball, but coming in slower and lower.  The biggest change, however, probably comes from his slider:

Derek Holland slider location vs. RHB, 2009-2010 on the left, first two starts of 2011 on the right.In the past if the batter was caught by the slider, he could take the pitch and probably end up with a ball call. Now, with him hitting the corner, someone who lays off the slider finds himself down a strike.  Since he tends to work this pitch inside, it serves as a nice contrast to his inside fastball.

Holland improved all three pitches by moving them all toward the edges of the plate.  His challenge now is to keep this up for a full season.

Nelson Cruz Looks Lower

Nelson Cruz tied a major league record by hitting homers in each of the first four Texas Rangers game of the season.  The Texas outfielder showed impressive power during the three previous seasons, slugging .565 during the period.  Nelson concentrated his power in the upper half of the strike zone:

Nelson Cruz slugging zones, 2008-2010.Not surprisingly, pitchers tried to work him down and away:

Nelson Cruz, pitch frequency, 2008-2010.Pitcher probably don't get the ball down as much as they'd like against Nelson, but you can see the intent in the heat map.

In 2011, they tried the same thing:

Nelson Cruz, pitch frequency, 2011.So far, they are doing a very good job of working Nelson down.  What they didn't count on was Cruz making an adjustment:

Nelson Cruz slugging zones, 2011.Instead of waiting to crush a high pitch, Nelson went down and got the low pitches.  The pitchers were following their scouting report and got burned.  It may be that Nelson just got lucky.  It's early in the season and anything can happen in a few at bats.  It would make sense, however, for Cruz to learn to hit where the pitchers are working, so it may be time for the scouting report to change.