My All Star Starters: AL 3B

While voting for the All-Star game ends tomorrow, I will still be producing these articles to discuss who I believe should have the starting nod and who should be on the team. Up tonight is the American League hot corner. This is a position that requires great reflexes coupled with a great arm, and, being a corner infield position, it is expected that this will be a position of hitting strength. All of the men being considered here are exceptional at their position and are all deserving of being in the conversation. Voting numbers can be found here.

#1. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers 3,073,541

Beltre leapt into first place since the last update, leading by almost 400,000 votes, and it has been well deserved. Since Beltre signed a one year deal with the Red Sox in 2010, he has been one of the most consistent third basemen in the game, showcasing unbelievable glovework coupled with an ability to hit for average and power. His power numbers really spiked after a down year in '09 where he only managed to put 8 out of the park. Since then he has gone deep 73 times. Below is a picture of how Beltre has adjusted an begun hitting more pitches for power.

Beltre is well known for his ability to go down on one knee and muscle balls out of the park. If you haven't seen it before, here is a link to see one from his Red Sox days. 

Beltre is not without fault though, as he sports a much higher groundball rate versus left handed pitching than righties, which has hurt his average versus southpaws.

Left (versus Righties) - Right (versus Lefties)This has not been too much of a problem, but if he can increase his flyball rate versus lefties, especially on the outside part of the zone, he may find that his average could increase even further. Now on to the stats.

71 G, 274 AB, 42 R, 90 H, 17 2b, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 1 SB, 16 BB, 34 SO, .328 AVG, .361 OBP, .533 SLG

Beltre could also afford to be a little more patient and draw some walks to boost the on-base percentage, but if he continues to get hits when he puts the ball in play, I can't really blame him for being a free swinger. Beltre continues to be an all-star on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, and I wholeheartedly believe that he should have a place on that team when all is said and done.

#2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers 2,692,047 

Something has to be said for Cabrera's durability after the move back to third. He has played in 74 games, even after taking a hard hopper to the eye in spring training, which happened to leave a nice battle scar. The move back to third also hasn't hurt his ability to rake. Cabrera is one of those unique hitters that has power to all fields, and he is showcasing that this season. He has hit seven home runs to left, four to center, and four to right field, totaling up to fifteen big flies. Below is a chart of the spread of his hits throughout the season.

Cabrera has taken advantage of pitches left up in the zone and driven the ball all over ballparks, including a mammoth 514 ft Home Run to left field off of Jake Peavy of the Chicago White Sox. Cabrera has also managed to get hits off the hard stuff, averaging .350 against pitches with a velocity of at least 91 mph. If the velocity drops down below that, he tapers off, hitting only .273.

 

As long as pitchers continue to throw him the hard stuff, Cabrera will remain an all-star caliber hitter. Lets look at his stats.

74 G, 299 AB, 43 R, 91 H, 22 2b, 15 HR, 59 RBI, 3 SB, 26 BB, 46 SO, .304 AVG, .363 OBP, .528 SLG

Cabrera has Beltre beat in overall power numbers, but that could be a 25 at bat factor that has allowed the Tigers' third basemen more opportunity to hit the long ball. Cabrera is mashing the ball this season, but I do not believe that he should be considered the started over Beltre.

#3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees 1,748,534

Compared to the first two guys on this list, the rest have been underwhelming. ARod hasn't been awful, but he also hasn't been able to live up to the performance of Cabrera and Beltre. Strangely enough, ARod has seen a concentration of pitches located dead in the strike zone, but he hasn't been able to capitalize to boost his average. 

ARod has been excellent in one strike counts this season, with an ISO rate of .323.

71 G, 264 AB, 40 R, 70 H, 6 2b, 13 HR, 34 RBI, 6 SB, 32 BB, 63 SO, .265 AVG, .355 OBP, .436 SLG

Comparing his stats to the vote leaders, he is matching them well in the HR numbers, but he lacks in the total extra base hit department. He is drawing walks at a higher rate, which has put his OBP in the same range, but the SLG is down 100 points. ARod has had an amazing career, but this is not an all star year for the third baseman.

#4. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays 1,688,509

Before a major injury sidelined his season before the thirty game mark, Longo was on pace to be better than any third baseman in the league. He had drawn one less walk in that time than Beltre has all season and he had more doubles than ARod has compiled. His AVG, OBP, and SLG would be at the top of the list for AL third basemen, but he hasn't played in over a month and probably will not be ready for the all-star game either way. His BABIP was way up, so it is conceivable he may have tailed off a bit. Here is a look at that heat map.

23 G, 82 AB, 15 R,  27 H, 7 2b, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 2 SB, 15 BB, 17 SO, .329 AVG, .433 OBP, .561 SLG

I'm a huge Longoria fan, and I hope he tears it up in the second half.

Wild Card: Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays

Readers must understand that he is not the everyday third baseman and has played more of a DH role, but I believe he is worthy of consideration here. He has 21 HRs! That ranks him near the top of the league, nevermind among 3rd basemen. Also, his .572 SLG ranks him fifth in the American League. His power numbers versus southpaws has been unreal, with a .371 ISO.

It's almost as if anything in the zone is getting hit for extra bases with this guy. If you don't believe it, look at the numbers:

71 G, 269 PA, 44 R, 77 H, 14 2b, 21 HR, 52 RBI, 6 SB, 28 BB, 53 SO, .286 BA, .361 OBP, .572 SLG

This guy has been revitalized. If he can continue this pace throughout the year, the Blue Jays will have quite a formidable lineup with Encarnacion hitting behind Bautista.

Results

1. Adrian Beltre

2. Miguel Cabrera

3. Edwin Encarnacion (due to less starts at 3b)

4. ARod

5. Brett Lawrie (Encarnacion's teammate and starting Blue Jays Third Baseman is having a good year)

Fernando Rodney, Elite Closer(!)?

Few analysts applauded when Tampa Bay Rays inked Fernando Rodney over the winter to close games. While Rodney had nearly 90 career saves to his name, he was also coming off a season with the Angels in which he walked more batters than he struck out and held a career ERA+ (101) right around the league average. That's hardly the stuff of late-inning gunslinging, and the move seemingly didn't jive with the Rays' typically stat-savvy approach.

But, as ESPN SweetSpot's David Schoenfield notes, the crooked-capped Rodney has been lights-out in Tampa:

You know, Fernando Rodney has never really been that good. He had 44 good innings for the Tigers in 2005 and he was tough to hit in 2006, when he had a 3.52 ERA. But from 2007 through 2011, he posted a 4.42 ERA, hardly impressive for a relief pitcher, and allowed a ton of baserunners (1.50 WHIP) as he always walked too many batters (5.2 walks per 9). He lucked into 37 saves for the Tigers in 2009 despite a 4.40 ERA and other uninspiring numbers (41 walks, 61 strikeouts, eight home runs in 75.2 innings).

So of course the Angels gave him $11 million, and then were surprised when it turned he was wild and ineffective.

And then the Tampa Bay Rays signed him. The Rays are always in search of power arms for their bullpen. Sure enough, Kyle Farnsworth gets hurt, Joe Maddon decides to sort of make Rodney his closer, he starts throwing strikes for the first time in his career and now he's 2-0 with 11 saves, no blown saves, no extra-base hits allowed and a .232 opponents' OBP, more than 100 points below his .342 career mark.

Rodney has struck out 19 hitters in 18.2 frames, while also walking just two batters unintentionally and getting lots of ground balls (55 percent of pitches put in play). With 0.8 Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement, Rodney has already provided twice as much value for his club this year than he did from 2006-2011 combined.

While the big dip in walks might suggest that Rodney is suddenly pounding the strike zone, that's not really the case. His percentage of pitches thrown in the zone has climbed, from 46 percent to 48 percent, but that's about average for relief pitchers. The bigger change is that Rodney's mid-90s fastball and low-80s changeup are getting more swings on pitches thrown off the plate:

Pitch	2011 Chase Pct.	2012 Chase Pct.	Avg. for Relievers
Fastball	27.6	33.7	26.6
Changeup	30.6	39.4	35.6
Overall	28.9	34.6	28.5

Most of those extra chases are coming on pitches thrown to the glove side, either well off the outside corner to lefties or just below the knees. Take a look at hitters' swing rate by pitch location versus Rodney during his disastrous 2011, and then in 2012:

Hitters' swing rate by pitch location vs. Rodney, 2011

Hitters' swing rate by pitch location vs. Rodney, 2012

Those chases on arm-side pitches are also leading to many more swings and misses. Look at Rodney's opponent contact rate by pitch location last year, and then in 2012:

Hitters' contact rate by pitch location vs. Rodney, 2011

Hitters' swing rate by pitch location vs. Rodney, 2012

Hitters have an overall miss rate of 32 percent against Rodney's stuff this year, well above his 21 percent mark in 2011 and the 24 percent average for relievers.

It's too early to declare Rodney an elite reliever after a month and a half, considering he put up middling numbers over the past decade. But right now, he looks nothing like the big-on-stuff, short-on-results slacker that frustrated talent evaluators in Detroit in L.A. Score another one for Andrew Friedman and company.

Best Mistake Hitters since 2010

Highest HR% on Mistake Pitches since 2010

Player	P	PA	AVG	SLUG	K%	HR%
Jose Bautista	474	183	.396	.956	6.6%	16.5%
David Ortiz	383	176	.405	.971	4.5%	15.0%
Matt Joyce	250	97	.389	.958	11.3%	14.7%
Shelley Duncan	204	75	.387	.893	21.3%	14.7%
Jim Thome	214	83	.402	.927	16.9%	14.6%
Russell Branyan	172	62	.306	.806	19.4%	14.5%
Matt Kemp	508	185	.379	.879	9.7%	13.7%
Pedro Alvarez	214	82	.415	.915	12.2%	13.4%
Mike Stanton	293	116	.421	.956	10.3%	13.2%
Pat Burrell	246	79	.408	.921	11.4%	13.2%
Josh Hamilton	252	124	.369	.820	8.9%	13.1%
Brennan Boesch	276	129	.414	.875	7.0%	12.5%
Ryan Braun	458	178	.434	.914	6.7%	12.0%
Brian McCann	301	109	.367	.789	11.9%	11.9%
Carlos Pena	361	139	.296	.741	12.2%	11.9%
Jorge Posada	237	101	.257	.644	16.8%	11.9%
Adam LaRoche	242	93	.376	.817	9.7%	11.8%
Joey Votto	420	165	.466	.975	9.7%	11.7%
Mark Reynolds	459	170	.293	.731	17.6%	11.4%
Carlos Quentin	303	109	.286	.705	7.3%	11.4%
Prince Fielder	368	159	.365	.755	6.3%	11.3%
Albert Pujols	407	162	.379	.814	4.3%	11.2%
Curtis Granderson	411	110	.336	.776	3.6%	11.2%
Kelly Johnson	412	153	.329	.763	9.2%	11.2%

Make a mistake to any of these hitters, and you're bound to pay for it. The above list includes only pitches that crossed the center of the strike zone since 2010. It's no surprise that Jose Bautista has a high HR% on mistake pitches; same for David Ortiz, Matt Kemp and a bunch of others.

I'm somewhat surprised to see Matt Joyce as #3 on the list. Of the 36 home runs he's hit since the start of 2010, 14 have come on pitches right in the center of the strike zone. Eight of those HRs came in 2011 when he hit 19 total long balls.

Nick Swisher has the most hits on mistake pitches with 80, while teammate Derek Jeter's 79 hits has him tied for second with Michael Young.

Mark Reynolds, #20 on the list, also has 30 strike outs on pitches over the middle of the plate since 2010. That's second only to Adam Dunn with 33.