David Price's Diminished Hook

David Price takes the mound tonight for the Rays in Yankee Stadium, bringing with him a 9-10 record with a 3.89 ERA.  One of the problems he's faced this year has been the lack of bite on his curveball.  He's yielded 17 hits off his curve including 5 doubles, one triple, and 2 HRs.

David Price Curveball

	P	AVG	SLG	BABIP	Contact%	HR/FB
2010 Season	520	.262	.359	.329	80.5%	4.2%
2011 Season	271	.298	.526	.326	81.6%	20.0%

While a small sample size caveat applies with the above numbers, PitchFX data indicates he may not be getting quite the same break on his hook as he did last season:

David Price Curveball Movement

	BrkX	BrkZ
2010 Season	4.4	-6.5
2011 Season	3.7	-4.7

The most glaring change has been the reduction in downward movement on Price's curve. In 2010, the lefty was getting 6.5 inches of downward break resulting from the spin on the pitch (BrkZ); this season, he's getting nearly 2 inches less of movement on it. In addition, Price has also seen a drop in left to right movement on his curve.

Right-handed hitters have done most of the damage against his curveball this season, going 14 for 37 with a .591 slugging percentage. With 6 RHB in the New York Yankees' lineup tonight, it will be interesting to see just how much Price utilizes that curveball.

Mike Napoli's Month

Mike Napoli (TEX) has been the most productive hitter in the last month of baseball.  His .567 wOBA since July 6th leads the majors and is 85 points better Hideki Matsui (OAK) in second place on the list.

(Click to enlarge)Over that span, Napoli has drilled 8 home runs and 7 doubles, while walking 8 times in 80 PA.  His 11.1% HR rate also leads all players since July 6th.  His HR/FB rate of 29.6% is third behind only Marlins' Mike Stanton (39.1%) and Rays' Ben Zobrist (30.0%).

The Price is Almost Right

David Price of the Tampa Bay Rays has improved both his walk and strikeout rates in 2011 posting the best K/9 IP and BB/9 IP marks of his career.  The result however, is an ERA one run higher than last season.  While David keeps men off base very well, with men on base, batters hit him better making the most of their limited opportunities.

The spot to hit Price the best is near the catcher's glove hand:

David Price, in play average, 2011.David, however, avoids that area of the plate:

David Price, pitch frequency, 2011.Note that Price works the outside part of the strike zone near the catcher's hand.  He experience great success getting both swinging and called strikes there:

David Price, strike rate, 2011.So working inside to left-handers, outside to right-handers, works well for Price, while putting the ball on the inside part of the plate (from a right-handed batter's perspective) works poorly.  So with no one on:

David Price, pitch frequency, bases empty, 2011.This pattern produces a .213/.249/.368 slash line by his opposing batters.  With men on base, however, Price abandons this winning pattern:

David Price, pitch frequency, runners on, 2011.He often puts the ball right where batter like to hit it against him.  The above pattern results in a .276/.338/.414 slash line.  Those hits come at a bad time, and help drive runners home.

I wonder if this pattern is part of a desire to drive down his walks.  Walks with men on base are frustrating for a pitcher.  By throwing the ball over the plate more with men on base, he avoids the walks, but he's also providing good pitches to hit.  It's not clear the trade-off is working this season.