Hamilton's 50 Percent

After last night's 0-for-4 showing in Game One of the World Series, Josh Hamilton has a tepid .267 batting average, a .286 OBP and a .378 slugging percentage during the 2011 playoffs. That's a far cry from the reigning AL MVP's .298/.346/.536 regular season triple-slash, and Hamilton admitted a few days ago that a lingering left groin injury is hindering him:

"I’m about 50 percent," Hamilton told Ben Rogers in an interview on ESPN 103.3 FM. "I’m going to give you 100 percent of my 50 percent."

"We got a lot of power on the team, so I’m definitely not concerning myself with hitting home runs and producing that way," Hamilton said. "Whatever the game asked me to do -- whether get a guy over, or make a catch in the outfield -- I'm trying to do it. I told Kins after our first at-bat [Saturday], 'Let's not try to do too much.' "

Hamilton may well be 50 percent, but you wouldn't know it judging by the distance of his fly balls hit during the postseason. The lefty slugger's fly balls have traveled an average of 318 feet in October, compared to 292 feet during the regular season. Of course, you could argue that some of Hamilton's deep fly ball outs to left and center field (dark blue on the spray chart below) would be round-trippers if he were healthier:

 Hamilton's fly balls hit during the 2011 playoffs

Hamilton has also expanded his already-large strike zone during the playoffs. He has gone after 44 percent of pitches out of the zone, above his 38 percent average during the regular season. In particular, he's trying to poke pitches well off the outside corner of the plate:

 Hamilton's swing rate by pitch location during 2011 playoffs

Those swings on outer-third offerings probably aren't a good thing. Hamilton murderizes pitches thrown inside, but he doesn't inflict a whole lot of pain on outside pitches. Check out his in-play slugging percentage by pitch location in 2011 (including the playoffs):

Hamilton's in-play slugging percentage by pitch location, 2011 (including playoffs)Pitchers seem well aware of Hamilton's issues with outside pitches. They're throwing lots of pitches low and away, many of them out of the zone but close enough that Hamilton still pulls the trigger. Take a look at opponents' pitch location to Hamilton during the playoffs:

 Opponent pitch location to Hamilton during 2011 playoffs

It's hard to ascribe Hamilton's postseason woes to one factor. Maybe it's his groin, turning would-be homers into warning track shots. Maybe it's his plate approach, as he's going after more outside pitches that give him problems. Or maybe it's just plain old bad luck: we're talking about 49 plate appearances, after all. If a couple of those long fly ball outs cleared the fence, Hamilton's playoff line is suddenly .311/.327/.556, and we're surely not having this discussion. Whatever the reason, the Rangers need vintage Josh Hamilton if they're going to top the Cardinals.

Napoli's High-Ball Hacking Pays Off

No player influenced the AL West in 2011 more than Mike Napoli. The part-time backstop, whose defense never earned him the full trust of Mike Scioscia and the Angels, was shipped to Toronto this past January as part of a deal for Vernon Wells. Four days later, Napoli was traded to L.A.'s chief division rival for Frank Francisco. While Wells turned in a wretched season (-0.3 Wins Above Replacement) and raked in $23 million (it's OK, he has three more years to redeem himself at $21 million a pop!), Napoli paced Rangers players with 5.5 WAR.

Napoli has been devastating offensively. Including the playoffs, his .431 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) places third among MLB hitters with at least 400 trips to the plate. Napoli has pared down his strikeout rate (to a career-low 19.8 percent), and his patient approach produces plenty of walks as well (13.1 percent). And when he does decide to take a whack at a pitch off the plate, there's a reason: Napoli knows he can crush it.

Generally speaking, swinging at pitches out of the zone is a lousy idea. Hitters have a collective .195 wOBA when going after pitches out of the zone. But Napoli? He has a .360 wOBA when he goes fishing, which ranks second to Pablo Sandoval among MLB batters. Napoli is hardly a Vlad Guerrero-esque, hack-happy hitter: his 23 percent chase rate is well below the 28-29 percent big league average. Rather, his out-of-zone swings are calculated. Napoli kills high pitches, so he's not bashful about going after pitches up the ladder.

Take a look at Napoli's out-of-zone swing rate this season, compared to the league average. You'll note that he's awfully aggressive on high pitches, but just about never swings at pitches off the plate in other locations:

 Napoli's out-of-zone swing rate, by pitch location

League average out-of-zone swing rate, by pitch locationHere's how Napoli's chase rate breaks down by vertical pitch location, compared to the league average:

High pitches: 29 percent, 26 percent league average

Middle pitches: 27 percent, 34 percent league average

Low pitches: 13 percent, 28 percent league average

Napoli's aggressiveness on high pitches is paying off handsomely. Check out his in-play slugging percentage on pitches thrown out of the strike zone, compared to the league average:

 Napoli's in-play slugging percentage vs. out-of-zone pitches

League average in-play slugging percentage vs. out-of-zone pitches

Napoli's nine homers on out-of-zone pitches rank second in the majors, and seven of those shots have come on high pitches. A word of advice to Cardinals pitchers as the World Series kicks off tonight: if you're thinking about trying to get Napoli to chase high, think again.

Ryan Braun Taking Advantage

Ryan Braun leads all 2011 Postseason participants with 13 hits. His .624 weighted on base average also leads the postseason along with his 25 total bases.  Braun has gone deep twice, one behind six players tied for first, and his two doubles put him in a tie for first with Albert Pujols.

Taking a look at how he's been pitched to so far, it's no surprise he's doing so well at the plate.

Click image to enlarge.

In the regular season, Braun did a lot of damage on balls over the middle of the plate, not surprisingly. But he also killed pitches down in the strike zone, as well as down and in at the knees.  So far in this postseason, pitchers have basically thrown to those locations.

The areas Braun had any difficulty with were pitches up and away and pitches inside.  However, as the heat map indicates, pitchers haven't thrown to those areas much.  In fact, they really haven't thrown Braun much of anything up in the zone at all.

If opposing pitchers continue to throw to Braun's strengths, don't expect his offensive output to slow any time soon.