Is Ichiro Really a Free Swinger?

Ichiro Suzuki (SEA) earned the reputation as a hitter who will swing at anything.  We've seen him earn hits on balls at his shoe tops and way outside the strike zone.  Is he really that much of a free swinger, however?  The data indicates he may be more selective than thought.

The following graph shows Ichiro's swing rate versus the rate for the majors since the start of the 2008 season:

Ichiro Suzuki swing rate (left) versus MLB rate (right), 2008-2011.Note that most of Ichiro's swing density is in the strike zone.  Yes, he does swing out of the zone more than average, especially down.  There's a good reason for that, however:

Ichiro Suzuki contact rate (left) versus MLB rate (right), 2008-2011.When most batters go out of the strike zone, they swing and miss, especially up and down.  When Ichiro goes out of the strike zone, he makes contact.  Ichiro's strike zone is simply bigger than than it is for most players.  Not only does he make contact, he makes productive contact:

Ichiro Suzuki, in play average, 2008-2011.Notice the nice bright reds down and outside the strike zone.  Those are some of his best places to get a hit.  This represents more evidence that Suzuki's strike zone covers more area.  When most players swing out of the zone, they trade balls for outs.  Ichiro trades them for hits.  He is a selective hitter, just not in the traditional way.

The King's Change

Felix Hernandez has one of the best fastballs in all of baseball.  Last year, opponents hit only .183 against it, best in the majors among starters.  And no other starter held opponents below the Mendoza line with fastballs.

King Felix's change is equally devastating.  Against left-handed batters, right-handed pitchers tend to pitch the change away, attempting to get the batter to chase.  This doesn't always hold true when pitching against righties. As a changeup from a RHP tends to move in on right-handed batters, it's sometime safer to start the pitch inside in order to avoid floating a pitch over the meat of the plate.  If you have a great fastball, you are more likely to get away with throwing a changeup in as well. Felix is a prime example of this.

Changeups: Felix Hernandez vs. All RHP (click to enlarge)

Righties produced a .117 wOBA against his change with an expected line of .139/.204/.169 last season (compared to an actual line of .129/.126/.130.).