Will King Felix Be Like Tom Terrific, Or Doc Gooden?

Felix Hernandez has been historically excellent as a youngster, ranking 15th all-time in Wins Above Replacement among starting pitchers through age 26. He also has a lot of mileage on his golden right arm. Hernandez has thrown 1,620 innings in the majors so far, the highest total for an Expansion-Era pitcher through age 26 since Dwight Gooden tossed 1,713 frames from 1984-1991.

With Hernandez on the verge of signing a contract extension that will keep him in Seattle through the 2019 season at a cool $175 million, it's worth asking: How have other pitching phenoms fared in their later years? Do they keep on racking up Cy Youngs, or do they crash and burn? Unfortunately, the answer isn't nearly that neat and tidy. History suggests that Felix could be anything from an inner-circle Hall-of-Famer to a guy who has to buy his own ticket into Cooperstown.

Using Baseball-Reference's Player Index tool, I made a list of Expansion-Era starting pitchers who accumulated between 25 and 35 Wins Above Replacement through their age-26 seasons. Hernandez has 31.5 through age 26, so these guys were in the same ballpark as the King. Here's the list, with WAR totals before and after age 26:

You can't get a much wider range of outcomes than this. Tom Seaver remained a workhorse into his early forties. So did Roger Clemens, either through a Nolan Ryan-esque work ethic or a willingness to turn himself into a science experiment, depending upon whom you ask. Pedro dominated into his early thirties before breaking down physically.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Jim Maloney suffered numerous shoulder and arm injuries before tearing his Achilles trying to leg out a hit. He threw his last pitch at age 31. Dean Chance lost his fastball and was out of the game at age 30. Doc Gooden was done as a durable, productive starter by 28, though he hung around through injury and substance abuse problems long enough to throw a no-hitter and capture a pair of World Series rings with the Yankees.

Will King Felix's career turn out like Tom Terrific's, or Doc Gooden's (minus the legal run-ins)? I have no idea, but that's the $175 million question.

With Improved Fastball Command, Felix Still King

Not since the days of Roger Clemens, Doc Gooden and Bret Saberhagen has a starting pitcher had as good of a start to his career as Felix Hernandez. But the curly-haired teenager throwing upper 90s gas who debuted with the Mariners back in 2005 would scarcely recognize the crafty 26-year-old who's set to sign a contract extension that will pay him the highest average annual salary ($27.1 million) ever for a pitcher. King Felix's fastball no longer sizzles toward home plate, but he has extended his reign with improved command of the pitch.

Hernandez's fastball averaged 94.4 miles per hour at the beginning of the Pitch F/X era in 2008, a mark bested only by Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana among qualified starting pitchers. Last year, Felix's average velocity with both his four-seam fastball and sinker was 92.4 MPH -- just a tick above the 91.2 MPH average for right-handers. Yet, batters didn't really do all that much more damage against Hernandez's fastball last year (.410 slugging percentage) than they did in 2008 (.396).

How has Felix remained so effective with seemingly run-of-the-mill velocity? By hitting his spots. He's throwing fewer fastballs over the heart of the plate as he makes the transition from flame-thrower to marksman:

Hernandez's percentage of fastballs thrown over the horizontal middle of the plate, 2008-12

2008: 22.9%

2009: 22.4%

2010: 23.4%

2011: 20.3%

2012: 19.8%

MLB AVG for SP: 23.6%

Fastballs left over the middle of the plate tend to get thumped (batters slugged .502 last year) and Felix's is no exception (.525 opponent slugging percentage), so avoiding that spot is key. Few did a better job of that in 2012: Dan Haren (19.6%), Doug Fister (19.5%), Jason Vargas (19.1%), Tommy Milone (18.9%), and Jeremy Hellickson (18.5%) were the only AL starters who threw a lower percentage of fastballs over the horizontal middle of the plate.

King Felix, power pitcher, is dead. Long live King Felix, command-and-control artist.  

Belt-High Pitches Hurting Jason Vargas

As a finesse, fly-ball lefty, Jason Vargas was a perfect fit for Seattle's Safeco Field. Vargas will still pitch in a plum environment after being traded to the Los Angeles Angels for Kendrys Morales, considering that Angel Stadium kills right-handed power hitters and he'll have Mike Trout and Peter Bourjos covering the gaps behind him. However, Trout and Bourjos can only help Vargas if he keeps the ball out of the cheap seats. That has become a serious problem recently, as the former Long Beach State star has left more pitches over the middle of the plate.

Vargas' home run rate has climbed three years running, from 0.8 per nine innings pitched in 2010 to one per nine in 2011 and 1.4 HR/9 this past season. He coughed up 35 home runs in 2012, tying Phil Hughes for second-most among starting pitchers. Vargas got burned when he tossed belt-high pitches:

Location of Vargas' home runs allowed in 2012:

Vargas allowed 20 homers on pitches thrown to the vertical middle of the strike zone, a total topped only by New York's Ivan Nova (21). The lefty gave hitters more chances to tee off on belt-high pitches, too: He threw about 38% of his pitches to the middle of the plate, up from 36% in 2011 and 32% in 2010. For context, the three-year average for starting pitchers is slightly over 31%.

Safeco provided a safe haven for Vargas, who was highly successful at home during his M's career (3.34 ERA, 0.9 HR/9) but an also-ran on the road (4.85 ERA, 1.5 HR/9). L.A. is a great landing spot, with Angel Stadium suppressing home runs for righty batters by 20% compared to a neutral park (Safeco cuts righty homers by 30%) and Trout and Bourjos running down everything in play. That said, Vargas can't rely on Trout bringing back balls destined for the rocks every night. Great park and outfield defense aside, Vargas must sharpen his command to limit those long drives.