San Fran's Starters Avoid Fat Part of Plate During Shutout Streak

The San Francisco Giants have leaped into first place in the NL West thanks to four straight shutouts, becoming the first club to blank the competition four or more consecutive times since the 1995 Baltimore Orioles. Barry Zito, Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Lincecum dominated the Dodgers for a series sweep, and Madison Bumgarner was an up-the-middle roller from Ryan Hanigan away from a no-hitter versus the Reds last night.

While Zito, Vogelsong, Lincecum and Bumgarner all put up zeroes, their pitch location during their respective shutouts varied. One thing they all had in common, though, was avoiding the fat part of the plate.

Barry Zito

Zito's pitch location vs. Dodgers on 6/25/12

Zito stuck to his glove side versus the Dodgers, staying away from lefty batters (nearly 60 percent of his pitches to lefties were thrown outside) and pounding righties inside. Zito threw just five of his 109 pitches to both the horizontal and vertical middle of the plate.

Ryan Vogelsong

Vogelsong's pitch location vs. Dodgers on 6/26/12

While Zito pitched to his glove side, Vogelsong located to his arm side and induced a bunch of ground balls (15, compared to eight fly balls). Vogelsong also left just five of his 98 pitches over the horizontal and vertical middle of the plate. 

Tim Lincecum

Lincecum's pitch location vs. Dodgers on 6/27/12

Lincecum turned in arguably his best start of the season by keeping the ball down: 54 percent of his pitches were at hitters' knees, compared to 45 percent overall in 2012. Only nine of Timmy's 115 pitches were left middle-middle.

Madison Bumgarner

Bumgarner's pitch location vs. Reds on 6/28/12

Good luck finding a pattern in Bumgarner's pitch location. Batters must have felt like they got walloped with a beer-and-shaving-cream pie as the big lefty peppered all four quadrants of the plate. Bumgarner threw a mere four of his 107 pitches to the middle-middle-portion of the plate.

Bad things happen when pitchers leave the ball down the heart of the plate: hitters are slugging a collective .579 on pitches thrown to both the horizontal and vertical middle of the dish this season. Basically, batters turn into this year's version of Robinson Cano when they get a cookie. But Zito, Vogelsong, Lincecum and Bumgarner only threw a combined 5.4 percent of their pitches to the fat part of the plate during the shutout streak. The average for starting pitchers is about 7.5 percent. It pays to be precise.

Ryan Vogelsong's command

Ryan Vogelsong has been a surprisingly effective addition to the San Francisco Giants' starting rotation this season.  His comand is one reason he's been fairly successful since his first start on April 28th.

Ryan Vogelsong - All Pitches All heat map data from 2011 (Click image to enlarge)

For the most part, Vogelsong keeps the ball away from opposing batters.  As Dave Golebiewski pointed out back in June, Vogelsong will also throw his fastball inside to righties.  But overall, he's successfully managed to keep the ball away from both righties and lefties.  In fact, the 34 year old righty seems to have tightened up his control even more in the last month and a half:

Ryan Vogelsong - All Pitches (Click image to enlarge)

To both righties and lefties, Vogelsong is nailing the outside black.  Opposing batters are hitting him a bit better in the last month and a half (.329 wOBA compared to .291 on the season), however.  Most of this is coming from lefties who are OPSing 155 points higher against Vogelsong, compared to their season average. 

Since it looks like the Giants and Diamondbacks will be battling it out for the NL West division title over the next month and a half, Vogelsong will probably need to maintain his command in order to help his team come out on top.

Vogelsong Mixing Pitches, Getting Chases

When Ryan Vogelsong replaced an injured Barry Zito in the Giants' starting rotation, it seemed to indicate that San Francisco's staff, while exceptionally talented, was paper thin behind the likes of Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner. After all, Vogelsong was a prospect who didn't make good upon being traded to the Pirates in the July 2001 Jason Schmidt deal. He toiled in Japan for three years, pitching mostly out of the bullpen, and drifted by the Triple-A affiliates of the Phillies and Angels last year before signing a minor league deal over the winter with the club that originally drafted him.

But, instead of continuing to disappoint, Vogelsong has dominated in 2011. The soon-to-be 34-year-old righty has struck out three batters for every one that he has walked, and his fielding independent ERA is south of three. Vogelsong has revived his career by showing a deeper repertoire and getting hitters to chase pitches off the plate.

When Vogelsong was a Pirate, he threw his low-90s fastball more than 70 percent of the time while flipping in occasional curveballs, sliders and changeups. In 2011, he has thrown each of those secondary pitches more than 10 percent of the time. His fastball and mid-70s curveball have been particularly dominant. Check out his chase and miss rates with the heater and the hammer, compared to the league averages:

 

 Vogelsong is pounding the outside corner with his fastball against lefties:

Frequency of Vogelsong's fastball location vs. left-handers (top), compared to the league average (bottom)

 Against right-handers, his fastball is basically two pitches. He tails the ball in on righties' hands at times, then peppers the outside part of the plate at other points:

  

   Frequency of Vogelsong's fastball location vs. right-handers (top), compared to the league average (bottom)

Vogelsong is getting lefties to chase those fastballs on the outside corner...

 

Left-handed hitters' chase rate on Vogelsong's fastballs located on the outside corner (top), compared to the league average (bottom)

And righty batters just can't resist inside fastballs:

 Right-handed hitters' chase rate on Vogelsong's fastballs located on the inside corner (top), compared to the league average (bottom)

Overall, Vogelsong's fastball has been one of the most effective pitches in the game. He's holding hitters to a .294 slugging percentage with the fastball, which ranks fourth among starting pitchers.

Vogelsong's curve has been sharp, too, limiting batters to a .200 slugging percentage that ranks in the top 20 among starters. He's throwing his curveball a bit less than 20 percent of the time to batters of both hands, spotting the pitch on the outside corner against both lefties and righties and getting outside swings:

 

Left-handed hitters' chase rate on Vogelsong's curveball (top), compared to the league average (bottom)

 Right-handed hitters' chase rate on Vogelsong's curveball (top), compared to the league average (bottom)

Vogelsong's fastball and curveball have been the biggest reasons for his success. But keep in mind that lefty hitters thinking about moving over in the box and covering that outside corner of the plate also have to contend with a slider in on the hands. And if they gear up for the fastball on the outside half, Vogelsong can call on his changeup. Righties  tempted to stand near the outer bounds of the batter's box to deal with inside fastballs have to battle breaking stuff on the outside corner. In other words, Vogelsong's four-pitch mix makes hitters of both hands squirm.