Nine to Know: Breaking down Robinson Cano's postseason breakdown

It's hard to believe that Robinson Cano, in the last nine games of the Yankees regular season, went 24-for-39 for a .615 average. If you add that to his 2-for-32 .063 in the seven games of the postseason, you still have a .366 batting average which is not a bad average but I think the Yankees and Yankee Universe are seeking a little balance from Cano. They are also expecting him to hustle down the first base line and turn the double plays that he should be able to do. But that's another story. Let's focus on Cano at the plate.

Nine to Know: Looking under-the-hood at Cano's struggling postseason.

1. Pitchers are killing Cano by owning the outside half of the plate.

On pitches on the outer-half of the plate, Cano is 1-for-27. Before you try to get a handle on the fact that the only hit Cano has had on pitches on the outer half of the plate was an opposite field double against the Orioles' Jim Johnson in the 9th inning of Game 1 of the ALDS, think about the fact that 22 of Cano's of the last 27 of Cano's at-bats have resulted with outs on pitches on the outer half of the plate.

2. Cano is seeing 3.82 pitches per at bat. He saw 3.53 during the regular season so aggression, or lack of it, is not an issue.

3. Or is it? Cano in the postseason has a called strike percentage of 35.1 as opposed to 25.3% during the regular season.

4. Pitchers are pounding Cano with fastballs. During the regular season, 47.8% of Cano's pitches were fastballs, but in the postseason it's been 62.3%. During the regular season, Cano hit .294 off the fastball but in the postseason, only .143. BUT...

5. It's the slider that really killing Cano because he's clearly not picking it up.

Cano is 0-for-9 against the slider with eight groundouts and one pop-up. Cano hit .274 against the slider during the regular season.

6. Hard to believe but in this slump, Cano is not striking out a lot. This postseason, Curtis Granderson has struck out 14 times, Alex Rodriguez 12 times, Derek Jeter 10 times, Nick Swisher eight times, and Cano only four times.

7. BUT, no one has swung at more pitches than Cano who has swung at 69 and missed 11 times. BTW: Granderson has swung and missed on 23 pitches, A-Rod has swung and missed on 21 pitches, Swisher has swung on missed on 18 pitches.

8. Between swinging strikes and pitches he put into play, Cano totals 89 swings. But of those 89 swings, he has chased 28 pitches that were out of the zone, the most on the team.

9. So what do all those swings mean? It means that Cano has had 18 at bats with two strikes on him and he's 0-18 for on those at bats. Pitchers will always have the advantage once they get two strikes. Even during the regular season, Cano was 61-for-281 (.217) with two strikes on him but he had 426 plate appearances during the regular season in which he did not have two strikes on him.

So as you watch Cano in Detroit, let's see if a night away enables him to exhibit a little more control chasing the outside pitch, picking up the slider, and avoiding two strike situations. If he succeeds, you will see the hits start coming.

HR Derby Tidbits: AL Edition

Team Cano (Jose Bautista, Robinson Cano, Prince Fielder, Mark Trumbo) takes on Team Kemp (Carlos Beltran, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Kemp and Andrew McCutchen) tonight at Kauffman Stadium in the 2012 Home Run Derby (8 PM EST, ESPN). While the Royals' home digs aren't particularly friendly to power hitters during regular games, decreasing homers hits by 27 percent for lefties and 15 percent for righties according to StatCorner, these guys should have little trouble reaching the waterfalls beyond the outfield fences. Here's a closer look at the shots hit by Team Cano in 2012.

Jose Bautista

Home Runs: 27

Bautista is all about the pull power: 22 of his 27 bombs have screamed down the left field line, with just one shot going to the opposite field. That Bautista is the game's pre-eminent pull hitter is remarkable considering how loathe pitchers are to give him something inside. Just 23 percent of the pitches Bautista has seen have been thrown inside, compared to the 28-29 percent MLB average. That means he's hitting pull-side homers on pitches thrown on the outer half:

Pitch location of Bautista's HRs

Bautista has his 16 of his bombs on outer-half pitches this season.  

Robinson Cano

Home Runs: 20

While not quite Bautista-like, Cano has also pulled the vast majority of his homers this season (14 of 20). Ten of those 13 pulled home runs have come at home -- Yankee Stadium's short right field porch is a pull hitter's best friend. Cano has popped an equal number of homers this season against "hard" pitches (fastballs, cutters and sinkers) and "soft" stuff (changeups, curveballs and sliders). He likes the ball below the letters, hitting three-quarters of his homers on pitches thrown low or to the middle of the zone:

Pitch location of Cano's HR

Prince Fielder 

Home Runs: 15

Continuing the pull-happy theme, Fielder has ripped 12 of his 15 home runs into the right field stands. Prince has actually hit the majority of his homers on "soft" pitches, going yard nine times combined against breaking and off-speed stuff. Just over half of his home runs have come on pitches thrown around his considerable belt:

Pitch location of Fielder's HRs

Mark Trumbo

Home Runs: 22

Trumbo has distributed his homers a little differently than the rest of Team Cano, hitting 14 to the pull side, seven to center field and one to the opposite side. If the regular season is any indication, don't look for Trumbo to take many pitches tonight. He's tied with Cano and a few others for the second-most home runs hit on the first pitch this season, with five. Trumbo likes it when pitchers challenge him inside, as 15 of his homers have come on inner-half offerings:

Pitch location of Trumbo's HRs 

My All Star Starters: AL 2B

Here we will discuss the American league second base all-star hopefuls. Updated voting totals are here.

Second base is a tough position to find pure hitters, especially those that can hit for power. This is what makes those few guys who can do it all extremely valuable to their teams. Second basemen don't need to have the best arms, but they need to have quick hands and feet, as that could mean the difference between one out and two when trying to turn a double play in the infield. Now we can discuss the top vote getters.

#1. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees 3,559,290

Has there been anyone better than this guy at hitting from second base in the past few years? Robinson Cano can hit for average and power, and he has speed, a great glove, and quick hands in the infield. Cano epitomizes what an all-star second basemen looks like, and he proved his power by taking home the Home Run Derby Title last season. I'm sure having that short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium certainly helps out the left hander as well. If Cano has any fault this season, it is that he has had trouble hitting left handed pitching. As you can see below, the average heat map versus left handed pitching leaves a little to be desired (he is only hitting at a .228 clip versus southpaws).

Taking a look at his average in the lower third of the zone versus lefties (specifically his groundball rate), may show the struggles.

It is fairly clear that Cano's inability to keep the ball off the ground in the lower part of the zone versus left handed pitching has contributed to lowering his average. Besides this small knock, Cano has been the best second basemen in the American League. Here are his stats:

71 G, 274 AB, 82 H, 21 2b, 1 3b, 16 HR, 50 R, 36 RBI, 1 SB, 29 BB, 42 SO, .299 AVG, .367 OBP, .558 SLG 

Cano has been awesome, and he just recently jumped over Ian Kinsler to take over the starting nod in the most recent voting update. I believe that the battle between the two of them in fan voting is not equivalent to the battle between the two of them on the field. (as I'm writing this, Cano hit his 17th)

#2. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers 3,462,367

Kinsler and Cano have been neck and neck since the voting started, but Cano has been hot lately, which has hurt Kinsler's starting bid. Kinsler has been just average since the season started, but compared to other second basemen, he's been slightly above average. We'll take a look at his average heat map to see what he has brought to the table this season.

Kinsler hasn't had much of a hot zone this season, as he has been just average. Hopefully soon he will catch fire and turn into the Ian Kinsler of previous seasons. His BABIP is higher than his current average which means he may be over achieving a little bit even now. If we look at Kinsler's stat line, it is pretty evident that he is having a non-Kinsler type year. 

71 G, 306 AB, 82 H, 23 2b, 3 3b, 7 HR, 53 R, 35 RBI, 13 SB, 27 BB, 40 SO, .268 AVG, .333 OBP, .431 SLG

Kinsler has appeared in as many games as Cano, but has really only out played him in the stolen base department. Otherwise, their stats are equivalent or Cano has posted better numbers. Cano just recently passed Kinsler for first on the voting list, which I believe is absolutely the appropriate order. Kinsler could provide a back up role on the all-star team, but that would mostly come from past exploits than from this year's production.

#3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox 1,666,282

Pedey has been an anchor at the second base position for the Red Sox for many years now, having reeled in an AL Rookie of the Year Award and an AL MVP in consecutive seasons. In the past, Pedrioa's strength has been on the inside half of the zone, and this year has been no different. Pedrioa has quick hands and incredible hand eye coordination that allows him to put almost any ball in play. This year has been no different, as most of his power has come from inside pitches. 

Pedrioa has been underwhelming thus far, which much can be contributed to the torn muscle in his thumb. It seems lately though that the Muddy Chicken may have turned the corner, as he has been swatting the ball the last couple of games. Lets take a look at his year to this point.

65 G, 269 AB, 72 H, 18 2b, 1 3b, 5 HR, 37 R, 28 RBI, 3 SB, 23 BB, 35 SO, .268 AVG, .327 OBP, .398 SLG

To this point, the Laser Show hasn't quite been himself, but a solid second half could level out his numbers. With an average similar to Kinsler's, I believe he is in an appropriate position behind the other two second basemen in front of him, and behind by two million votes, I don't see him making a come back.

#4. Jason Kipnis, Clevland Indians 852,325

Fans are recognizing how good this kid actually it, as the rookie is nearing one million votes. Kipnis is well deserving of the votes, in fact I think he needs to get some more. He has been almost as productive as Kinsler and Pedroia combined in the HR column. He has had a better average than the two and has knocked in more runs than even Cano. This kid has a bright future in the MLB and his success has come from his ability to make contact with balls all over the strike zone. 

This has led to a good rookie batting average. He has also shown excellent power, driving the ball to all fields.

Let's take a look at Kipnis' stats in the first half of his first big league season.

70 G, 283 AB, 78 H, 6 2b, 3 3b, 11 HR, 46 R, 41 RBI, 17 SB, 22 BB, 50 SO, .276 BA, .330 OBP, .435 SLG

This kid has been excellten for Clevland, leading the charge of young talent and should absolutely be considered to make an appearance in Kansas City at the Midsummer Classic. 

Wild Card - NONE

I don't believe there is another American League second baseman that should be considered in this discussion, so there is not a wild card who has a chance to break into the discussion.

RESULTS:

1. Robinson Cano

2. Jason Kipnis

3. Ian Kinsler

4. Dustin Pedroia