Raul Ibanez Still Slugging Fastballs

Raul Ibanez is 40 years old, scuffles against soft stuff and covers ground like Kirk Gibson might have if the Dodgers had let him limp around the outfield during the '88 World Series. But whatever limitations Ibanez might have, he can still kill fastballs. Ibanez displayed his heater prowess last night against the Orioles, belting a game-tying home run in the 9th inning after pinch-hitting for A-Rod (I don't believe what I just saw!) and then handing the Yankees a walk-off win by going deep again in the 12th. Now, he's being compared to Gibson for all the right reasons.

Ibanez capitalized when Jim Johnson left a 94 MPH sinker over the heart of the plate in the 9th.  In the 12th, Ibanez turned on a high 91 MPH fastball from lefty Brian Matusz:

 Location of Ibanez's home runs vs. Baltimore, 10/10/12

Both pitches were located in Ibanez's hot spots against fastballs and sinkers:

Ibanez vs. fastballs and sinkers, 2012

Ibanez is slugging .555 overall against fastballs and sinkers this season, far above the .460 MLB average. Blowing a fastball by Raul, even when he's coming in cold off the bench, is no simple task. It's a different story against breaking and off-speed pitches, though:

Ibanez vs. breaking and off-speed stuff, 2012

Ibanez is slugging .331 against curveballs, sliders and changeups, which is over 40 points below the big league average (.374).

Raul's ridiculous night ranks as one of the most clutch hitting performances in postseason history. Judging by Win Probability Added, Ibanez places behind just David Freese, Gibson, Steve Garvey and Lance Berkman when it comes to clubbing his club to playoff glory:

Highest single-game WPA total in playoff history

Rk	Player	Date	Series	Gm#	Tm	Opp	WPA
1	David Freese	10/27/2011	WS	6	STL	TEX	0.969
2	Kirk Gibson	10/15/1988	WS	1	LAD	OAK	0.87
3	Steve Garvey	10/6/1984	NLCS	4	SDP	CHC	0.854
4	Lance Berkman	10/27/2011	WS	6	STL	TEX	0.832
5	Raul Ibanez	10/10/2012	ALDS	3	NYY	BAL	0.828
6	Charlie Keller	10/5/1941	WS	4	NYY	BRO	0.826
7	Cookie Lavagetto	10/3/1947	WS	4	BRO	NYY	0.822
8	Michael Tucker	10/12/1998	NLCS	5	ATL	SDP	0.812
9	Brian Jordan	10/8/1999	NLDS	3	ATL	HOU	0.806
10	Stan Hack	10/8/1945	WS	6	CHC	DET	0.806

Not bad for a guy who started the night as a spectator.

Can Ibanez Lay Off Soft Stuff in Pinstripes?

The Yankees used some of the bucks saved in trading A.J. Burnett to the Bucs, adding Raul Ibanez Monday on a one-year, $1.1 million deal. Ibanez, 39, is expected to take on right-handers as part of a DH platoon with lefty-thrasher Andruw Jones.

Ibanez comes cheaper than Johnny Damon, who is reportedly seeking around $5 million, but he also comes with some of the same questions regarding his suddenly diminishing plate discipline. The former Phillie started lunging at breaking and off-speed stuff from righties last year, and his on-base percentage took a tumble as a result.

Check out Ibanez's chase rate against "soft" pitches -- curveballs, sliders and changeups --  thrown by right-handed pitchers in 2011 compared to 2009 and 2010.  His chase percentage against breaking and off-speed pitches from righties was below the league average in '09 and 10, but it ballooned last year:

Ibanez's chase rate vs. "soft" stuff from right-handed pitching, 2009-11

Pitch Type	2009	2010	2011	3-Yr. MLB Avg. for LHB vs. RHP
Curveball	23	18	32	27
Slider	30	28	39	31
Changeup	33	34	43	35

Overall, Ibanez's chase rate against soft stuff from righties spiked from 30% in 2009 and 29% in 2010 to 39% in 2011. The average for lefty hitters versus right-handed pitchers is 32% over the past three seasons.

Ibanez went golfing last year, trying to club pitches near his ankles into the cheap seats. Take a look at his swing rate by pitch location vs. soft stuff from righties in 2009-10, and then 2011:

Ibanez's swing rate by pitch location vs. soft stuff from right-handed pitchers, 2009-10

Ibanez's swing rate by pitch location vs. soft stuff from right-handed pitchers, 2011If Ibanez gets back to his more patient approach and posts an OBP slightly north of .350 against righties like he did in 2009-10 (.353), then the Yankees may cobble together a cheap DH platoon. If he keeps trying to club low pitches from righties and has an OBP barely above .300 like in 2011 (.307), however, there will be a blight in the juggernaut Bronx lineup.

Raul Ibanez and the Fastball

Phillies fans are well aware of Raul Ibanez's struggles at the dish during the 2010 post-season. In 25 plate appearances, the left fielder has a triple-slash line of .130/.200/.174. During the regular season, he set a career-low in wOBA among the seasons in which he was a regular starter (since 2002), at .341.

These struggles come after a torrid first half of the 2009 season when he had an OPS of 1.015 and seemed to be on his way to some MVP votes. However, during the second half, he fizzled, OPSing only .774. A good portion of his troubles are likely explained by his left groin strain that sidelined him for 23 days from June 18 to July 11. Since that injury, Ibanez simply has not been the same.

Having watched Ibanez in his time as a Phillie, I have noticed his problems with fastballs. At 38 years old, it seems like his bat speed has been in decline and thus has been rather helpless trying to make solid contact on fastballs. The following images show his in-play slugging percentage on fastballs, the first showing data from April 5 to June 13, 2009 and the second showing everything since.

Ibanez's in-play slug on fastballs, 4/5/09 to 6/13/09

Ibanez's in-play slug on fastballs since 6/14/09

Ibanez has become more of a low-and-inside fastball hitter, a typical area for left-handed hitters. He no longer dominates as much area towards the high and outside part of the plate.

Even worse, Ibanez has also become much less effective against "soft" pitches. Using the same time periods as above:

Ibanez's in-play slug on "soft" pitches, 4/5/09 to 6/13/09

Ibanez's in-play slug on fastballs, since 6/14/09

Given the sample size of the first image, there is obviously going to be some regression to the mean, but overall, Ibanez's recognition of soft stuff has rapidly declined. Additionally, his coverage of the outside part of the plate has been reduced to one small area high and outside but inside the strike zone.

On my blog, I suggested that Phillies manager Charlie Manuel should, at the very least, use Ben Francisco as a defensive replacement in left field late in games. However, this analysis leads me to believe that an outright lineup change in Game Four of the NLCS is imperative, since the Giants will be using left-hander Madison Bumgarner. Ibanez, who performs worse against lefties than Francisco, has been on a precipitous decline. It would behoove the Phillies to admit this before it is too late.