Which Pitchers are Getting Calls, Getting Squeezed?

Which starting pitchers are benefiting from a generous strike zone this season? Which starters are grumbling as yet another borderline call goes the batter's way? Here's a quick rundown of pitchers with the highest and lowest called strike rates in 2013.

Highest called strike rates on in-zone pitches

 

Overall, umps call about four out of every five pitches taken in the zone a strike. But Jake Peavy is getting more credit for those over-the-plate-pitches than most. So are crafty lefties Mike Minor and Andy Pettitte. None of the guys in the top ten exactly lights up the radar gun. That makes sense, considering lower-velocity fastballs tend to get more called strikes than mid-90s heat.

Lowest called strike rate on in-zone pitches

 

On the flip side, Jon Niese has a reason to hold a grudge against Big Blue. The rest of the top ten is a mixed bag of power pitchers, breaking ball and off-speed reliant junk ballers and a knuckleballer. All of them are at a disadvantage in getting called strikes. High-velocity fastballs have lower called strike rates than slower ones, as mentioned above. Curveballs (81% called strike rate on in-zone pitches), sliders (79%) and changeups (78%) have lower called strike rates than fastballs (82%). And umps, like all other human beings on Earth, have a hard time figuring out what the heck a knuckleball is doing. Dating back to 2008, in-zone knucklers (a sample that basically amounts to pitches thrown by R.A. Dickey, Tim Wakefield and a few spot-starter aspirants) have a called strike rate of 73%.

Highest called strike rate on out-of-zone pitches

Interestingly, all of the starters getting calls on out-of-zone pitches are right-handers. It looks like they're taking advantage of umpires' tendency to stretch the outside corner for left-handed batters (the called strike rate on out-of-zone pitches thrown away to lefty batters is about 16%). Jeremy Hellickson (29%), Mat Latos (26%), Alex Cobb and Justin Verlander (23%) rank at the top of the list when it comes to getting calls on that outside corner versus lefty batters.

Lowest called strike rate on out-of-zone pitches

Pfft. Like Matt Harvey needs the help. Tim Lincecum, on the other hand...

Hitters Laying Off Dickey's Knuckler

For three years in Queens, R.A. Dickey disproved the notion that knuckleball pitchers are mercurial creatures whose control goes through jarring spells of precision and wildness. Dickey issued just 2.2 walks per nine innings with the Mets from 2010-12, compared to the average of 2.9 BB/9 for starting pitchers over that time frame. Flutterball pitcher or not, Dickey didn't hurt himself with free passes.

In 2013, though, the reigning Cy Young Award winner has walked 4.1 batters per nine frames with the Blue Jays. That's his highest walk rate since he was but a knuckleball neophyte getting lit up in Minnesota. You might think that Dickey hasn't been as sharp with his knuckler this season, and that's part of the problem (his percentage of knuckleballs thrown in the strike zone has decreased from 54% in 2012 to 51% in 2013). But the bigger issue is that hitters haven't been nearly as tempted to take a cut at Dickey's signature pitch as it dances off the plate.

Check out opponents' swing rate by pitch location against Dickey's knuckleball during his Cy Young season in 2012, and his Cy Yuk year so far in 2013. Pay particularly close attention to knucklers thrown around hitters' knees:

2012

2013

Dickey got hitters to chase 34% of his knuckleballs out of the strike zone last season. This year? Just 23%. The decline in chases is most acute on low knucklers -- 31% in 2012, and 13% in 2013. Compounding matters, Dickey is throwing more out-of-the-zone knuckleballs low this season (41%) than last (32%).

Without all of those chases, Dickey is falling behind in the count nearly twice as often as he did last season (14.5% of hitters' plate appearances last year, 27.4% in 2013). That's a recipe for not just walks, but also extra-base knocks from so many unfavorable counts. It's hard to say why hitters are suddenly laying of Dickey's low knucklers. But it might be time for a meeting of the Jedi Council of Knuckleballers.

R.A. Dickey Showing More Zip on His Knuckleball

Finding historical comps for R.A. Dickey is a fool's errand -- he's a baseball unicorn. We have never before seen a 38-year-old pitcher who lacks an Ulnar Collateral Ligament and launches "power" knuckleballs toward home plate, looking like Leonidas the Brave while doing so. Will Dickey pitch far into his forties like the Niekro brothers, Tom Candiotti and Tim Wakefield, or will he fade faster due to his (relative) reliance on velocity with the pitch?

No one knows for sure, but Dickey showed no signs of slowing down during his Cy Young 2012 season. He put more zip on his knuckleball last year, greatly increasing his percentage of flutterballs thrown over 75 miles per hour and inducing lots of swings and misses with those pitches:

Distribution of Dickey's knuckleball velocity, 2010-12 

Dickey threw about 87% of his knuckleballs at 75 MPH or faster in 2012, compared to about 73% in 2011 and 66% in 2010. His miss rate with those power knucklers was nearly 28%, up from 20% in 2011 and 21% in 2010. That's how Dickey boosted his strikeout rate from the mid-to-high fives in 2010-11 to nearly a batter per inning last season. He got most of those extra whiffs on pitches thrown at or above the belt. Check out Dickey's opponent contact rate on knuckleballs thrown at 75+ MPH in 2010-11, and then in 2012:

Dickey's opponent contact rate on 75+ MPH knuckleballs, 2010-11

Dickey's opponent contact rate on 75+ MPH knuckleballs, 2012

Batters swung through about 30% of Dickey's power knucklers thrown in the upper half of the strike zone, a marked increase from slightly under 22% in 2010-11.

We don't know whether Dickey will remain an ace-level pitcher for another couple of years or a decade. If 2012 is any indication, though, there's plenty of power left in his ligament-challenged right arm.