Prince's Power Outage

The Tigers dished out $214 million this past offseason to get Prince Fielder's thunderous bat in the lineup alongside Miguel Cabrera. The 28-year-old, on Detroit's radar since he reached the upper deck during batting practice as a boy in old Tiger Stadium while father Cecil played there, averaged 38 home runs per season and slugged .541 during his six years as a regular with the Brewers. But that power hasn't been on display so far for the Tigers, who enter play Monday at a disappointing 17-17 while ranking eighth in the American League in runs scored.

Fielder has gone deep just five times this year, and an 0-for-22 stretch has dropped his slugging percentage down to .406. Prince pummeled most anything thrown below the belt in 2011, as his slugging percentage by pitch location shows...

Fielder's slugging percentage by pitch location, 2011

But so far this year, his heat map in Motown is awfully blue in those regions...

Fielder's slugging percentage by pitch location, 2012

Prince actually has a higher slugging percentage against changeups this year than last, but he's not putting those signature uppercut clouts on fastballs or breaking stuff:

Pitch	2011 Slugging Pct.	2012 Slugging Pct.	MLB Avg.
Fastball	.667	.436	.440
Slider	.500	.455	.345
Curveball	.510	.333	.340
Changeup	.433	.563	.384

Fielder clearly isn't hitting with the same gusto as usual, as his average fly ball distance this season is down to 262 feet from last season's mark of 288 (the big league average is about 268 feet). While Comerica Park isn't as well-suited to Fielder's swing as Miller Park, he should start hitting with authority again soon. Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projection system has Prince hitting 25 more homers and slugging .493 from here on out. There's plenty of reason to worry about Fielder's deal in the long run, but it's highly unlikely that his power stroke is already on the wane in 2012.

Porcello, Fister Should Fear Detroit's Infield D

The Detroit Tigers' decision to put $214 million man Prince Fielder at first base instead of DH and move Miguel Cabrera, who last played third base regularly five years and fifty pounds ago, to the hot corner has some wondering whether Detroit's quest for maximum offense might produce the worst defensive infield seen in years.

Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer probably aren't too worried, considering both are high-strikeout hurlers who induce fly balls when hitters do make contact. But Rick Porcello and Doug Fister, who put the ball in play and on the ground much more often, might be sweating the prospect of pairing the plus-sized corner infielders with shortstop Jhonny Peralta and a combination of Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago at the keystone.

Porcello's punchout rate (13.3% of batters faced) ranked in the 18th percentile among starting pitchers (meaning he was worse than 82 percent of starters). Fister (16.7 K%) fared better, but he still placed in the bottom half (45th percentile). With few Ks, Porcello and Fister both ranked in the top 20 among American League starters in the percentage of pitches swung at put in play:

Pitcher	In Play Pct.
Joel Pineiro	53.6%
Brad Penny	51.2%
Jeff Francis	50.4%
Nick Blackburn	50.1%
Phil Coke	49.7%
Trevor Cahill	49.0%
Mark Buehrle	48.9%
Freddy Garcia	48.4%
Carl Pavano	48.3%
Rick Porcello	48.0%
Ivan Nova	48.0%
Blake Beavan	47.9%
Tyler Chatwood	47.5%
Zach Britton	47.3%
Josh Tomlin	47.2%
Tim Wakefield	46.5%
Bartolo Colon	46.5%
Jeremy Guthrie	45.9%
Brett Anderson	45.7%
Doug Fister	45.6%

And when batters put the ball in play against these two, it's often on the grass. Both had ground ball rates above the league average, with Porcello burning worms 54% of the time and Fister doing so 47%. Lots of balls in play, and lots of grounders: not a good combination for a club with four infielders whose best position is "hitter."

Porcello bore the brunt of sloppy infield D in 2011, as he had a .283 batting average on grounders put in play. That was 44 points above the league average for starters and was fourth-highest among AL starters (teammate Scherzer was third, though he had far fewer grounders put in play). Fister, by contrast, enjoyed a .196 BABIP on grounders while spending most of the season in Seattle. Suffice it to say, that's not likely to happen in 2012.

Miggy, Prince, Peralta and Raburn make for a formidable infield offensively, and their defensive foibles might not get that much notice on days when Verlander and Scherzer (second and 17th, respectively, among AL starters in K rate) are on the bump. But when pitch-to-contact, ground ball-centric pitchers like Porcello and Fister take their turns, look for lots of singles.

Brewers Sign A-Ram

Sans Prince Fielder, the Brewers will to struggle to stay among the National League's top five clubs in run scoring (and that's to say nothing of Ryan Braun's possible 50-game suspension for a failed PED test). Bringing in Aramis Ramirez on a three-year deal reportedly worth $36 million won't compensate, but A-Ram is at least a sizeable upgrade over what Milwaukee got from its third basemen in 2010 (which is to say, nothing).

In 2011, Brewers third basemen -- primarily now-Pirate Casey McGehee -- batted .231/.290/.345 and had a .279 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA). Ramirez, meanwhile, is coming off a resurgent season during which he hit .306/.361/.510, with a .371 wOBA. A-Ram struggled with injuries and bad luck in balls put in play in 2010, slashing just .241/.294/.452 with a .245 BABIP while battling thumb and triceps ailments. With better health and bat control this past year, Ramirez made more contact on inside pitches and did a better job covering the outer third as well. Check out his contact rate by pitch location in 2010 and 2011:

Ramirez' contact rate by pitch location, 2010

Ramirez's contact rate by pitch location, 2011

Ramirez's missed 23 percent of the pitches he swung at in 2010, but that fell to 18 percent in 2011. Consequently, his strikeout rate dipped from 17.8% to 11%. His BABIP bumped back up to .308, due mostly to more hits on inside pitches and those straddling the outside corner of the plate: 

Ramirez's in-play average by pitch location, 2010

Ramirez's in-play average by pitch location, 2011

Ramirez is an aggressive hitter who has never walked much, he's 33 years old and he's one of the worst defensive third basemen in the game, having cost his club 19 runs over the past three years according to Ultimate Zone Rating. But he's still serious power threat who will be much better than McGehee was in 2011 and is projected to be in 2012 (a .313 wOBA, according to The Hardball Times' Oliver). Ramirez joins a revamped Brew Crew infield with just one incumbent starter in Rickie Weeks. How does the new-look infield compare offensively to last year's version? Here's a look at last year's starters, and 2012 Oliver projections for Ramirez, Alex Gonzalez, Weeks and Mat Gamel:

Gamel, 27, is coming off a .310/.372/.540 season at Triple-A Nashville, but he's obviously no Fielder. Over the course of a full season, the offensive difference between what Fielder did last year and what Gamel is forecast to hit is a staggering 45 runs. However, upgrading from McGehee '11 to A-Ram in '12 is projected to be about a 35 run improvement. In other words, they lose 10 runs, or about a win, in offensive value compared to 2011. Of course, losing Braun for nearly a third of the season could easily cost the Brewers another 1-2 wins on offense.

Ramirez probably shouldn't be playing third base these days and his bat doesn't make up for Fielder's departure. That said, he gives them another quality hitter to at least partially ease the loss and make another run at the NL Central title before Zack Greinke hits the open market. It's hardly a coup, but it's a decent short-term solution for a team whose window of contention may soon close.