Papelbon vs. Madson

Over the weekend, the Phillies agreed to terms with reliever Jonathan Papelbon on a four-year, $50 million free agent deal that includes a vesting option that could take the total value of the contract north of $60 million. Philly was thought to be on the verge of a four-year, $44 million deal with incumbent closer and fellow free agent Ryan Madson, but the deal supposedly fell through due to a fifth-year vesting option that would have bumped Madson's potential earnings up to $57 million.

Setting aside for a moment the question of whether it makes sense to pay any reliever such a sum when he pitches, at most, five percent of his team's total innings, the Phillies' preference of Papelbon over Madson seems to make little sense unless the new Collective Bargaining Agreement scraps first-round draft pick compensation. There's little difference between the two in terms of recent and projected performance, and bringing in Papelbon could cost Philly's farm system needed young talent to boot.

Take a look at how Papelbon and Madson have pitched since 2009:

Papelbon: 199 IP, 10.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.64 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Madson: 191 IP, 9.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.74 FIP

Papelbon records more Ks, but Madson issues slightly fewer walks and gets taken deep a bit less often. Overall, the difference between Papelbon and Madson's fielding-independent numbers has been a tenth of a run per nine innings pitched.

Digging a little deeper, we find that Papelbon holds slight advantages in getting strikes and putting the ball in the zone, while Madson actually gets more swings and misses and more chases on pitches off the plate:

Papelbon: 66.8 Strike%, 28.2 Miss% 47.9 Zone%, 35 Chase%

Madson: 65.9 Strike%, 30.5 Miss%, 46.5 Zone%, 39.1 Chase%

You might be tempted to think that, as a result of pitching in the cut-throat AL East, Papelbon has faced a significantly tougher slate of hitters than Madson. But that doesn't appear to be the case. Take a look at their Opponent Quality OPS totals from 2009-2011, from Baseball Prospectus:

Papelbon

2009: .792 (T-52 among pitchers with 50+ IP)

2010: .765 (T-69)

2011: .752 (T-143)

Madson

2009: .781 (T-167)

2010: .765 (T-69)

2011: .756 (T-93)

Papelbon faced significantly tougher hitters in '09, but they were tied in 2010 and Madson had the harder go of it in 2011.

There's also the question of how Papelbon fits in at Citizens Bank Park. ESPN's Keith Law thinks Papelbon's fly ball-heavy approach will get him in trouble:

Papelbon has remade himself once after bottoming out with a fastball-only approach a few years ago, but even now he relies heavily on the hard but very flat four-seamer, which likely won't translate well to a good home run park in Philadelphia.

From 2009-2011, Papelbon has a 46 percent fly ball rate. He's all about the high heat:

Papelbon's pitch location, 2009-2011

Madson, by contrast, has a 32 percent fly ball rate. He's more apt to locate his fastball, cutter and changeup lower in the zone:

Madson's pitch location, 2009-2011

Considering that CPB increases homers by 16 percent for lefty hitters and 20 percent for righties (per StatCorner), it stands to reason that some of Papelbon's high heaters that died in the Fenway outfield or bonked off the Monster will leave the park entirely.

Past performance certainly matters, but what teams pay for (or should pay for) in free agency is future production. And on that front, Papelbon and Madson (both 31 years old) are barely distinguishable, according to The Hardball Times' Oliver projection system. Oliver forecasts 6.3 Wins Above Replacement for Papelbon over the next four years, compared to 5.7 for Madson. If the two were presidential candidates, we'd call that a statistical dead heat.

If the two can barely be told apart in terms of past and projected value, Madson apparently could have been had for a slightly smaller contract, and Madson is a better fit for CPB due to his ground ball ability, then the draft pick compensation that Papelbon may cost the Phillies makes their choice all the more curious.

Philly has emptied out its farm system in recent years in the quest for present wins, and it's hard to argue with the club's success. But, considering that Papelbon and Madson are near equals performance-wise, it seems like the Phillies gave up their first-round pick (31st overall) to Boston in the 2012 draft for nothing. Both Papelbon and Madson are Type A free agents, but it wouldn't have cost the Phillies any compensatory picks to retain their own free agent. Based on past research by Victor Wang, the Phillies punted a pick worth an average of $5-6 million.

This is where things get cloudy, though -- ESPN's Buster Olney reports that the new CBA may well eliminate first-round draft pick compensation:

In return, the players would get this concession from the owners -- there will be no first-round pick draft compensation. In recent years, teams have become increasingly reluctant to sign free agents tied to first-round draft picks, which has impacted the market for those players. There will continue to be draft pick compensations, but in some other form -- either in later rounds or in supplemental rounds.

If we accept the premise that the Phillies, a high-revenue club from whom every win makes a major difference in making the playoffs, were going to spend big bucks on a closer, their choice of Papelbon over Madson is slightly questionable if the new CBA allows them to hold on to their first-round pick and a bad move if they have to give it up. Given Philly's choice, I have to believe that they expect to hold on to that pick.

Phillies Add Thome's Pop for Peanuts

The Jim Thome Reunion Tour continues! The 41-year-old slugger/Brawny Paper Towel model, who returned to Cleveland in a waiver wire deal last August, signed a one-year, $1.25 million deal (plus $250K in possible incentives) with the Phillies over the weekend. Thome left the Indians following the 2002 season to sign with Philly, spending three seasons there before being swapped to the White Sox. While Thome is hardly an ideal fit on a National League roster, it's hard to fault the Phillies for adding a power bat for a pittance.

It's true that, aside from nine interleague games that Philly plays in AL parks in 2012, Thome's spot in the lineup is uncertain. Ryan Howard may miss the first half of the season following left Achilles surgery, but Thome hasn't appeared at the position since 2007 and hasn't played there regularly since 2005. Thome says he could use the offseason to work out at first base in hopes of playing there a few days a week, but that's a dicey proposition for a 40-something with a balky back.

Still, it's not like Howard (dead last among qualified first basemen in Ultimate Zone Rating/150 games over the past three years) is a Keith Hernandez clone at first. And even though he broke into the big leagues when the Soviet Union collapsed, "Smells Like Teen Spirit" topped the charts and Jack Morris was the World Series MVP, Thome can still kill baseballs. Over the past three seasons, he ranks 17th in both on-base percentage (.379) and slugging percentage (.523) among MLB hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances.

Thome remains a fearsome hitter because he still hammers fastballs like few others. Since 2009, Thome has a .286/.408/.587 line against fastballs and sinkers. That slugging percentage ranks in the top 20 among batters, in the same neighborhood as David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez. Thome rarely chases fastballs/sinkers out of the zone (18 percent, compared to the 26 percent big league average), and unless pitchers tie him up inside, he hammers those pitches to all fields. Check out Thome's in-play slugging percentage by pitch location vs. fastballs and sinkers, as well as the location of his homers hit on those pitches:

Thome's in-play slugging percentage vs. fastballs and sinkers, 2009-2011 Location of Thome's HR on fastballs and sinkers, 2009-2011

Considering that Philly turned to the likes of Ross Gload, Ben Francisco and Michael Martinez to pinch-hit last year, Thome is a worthwhile addition even if he's called upon solely to spot for pitchers or bottom-of-the-lineup bats in the late innings.

Soft Stuff Howard's Achilles Heel

One week ago, Ryan Howard lunged at a Chris Carpenter curveball and smacked it to Nick Punto at second base. The ground out ended the Phillies' 2011 season -- and jeopardized Howard's 2012 campaign. Howard stumbled out of the box, limped down the first base line and then sat grimacing in the grass as St. Louis celebrated, having fully torn his left Achilles.

The injury has up to a six-month recovery period, meaning Howard figures to miss at least part of the campaign in which his five-year, $125 million contract extension kicks in. There were plenty of reasons to worry about that sort of commitment even before the injury. The contract covers Howard's age 32-36 seasons, which are decline years for the vast majority of players and don't figure to be near as fruitful as his prime seasons in his late twenties and early thirties. And Howard's calling card -- his light-tower power -- may already be on the decline.

From 2008-2009, Howard slugged .556 and had a 133 OPS+. Over the past two seasons, he had a .491 slugging percentage and a 126 OPS+. Howard is still killing high-velocity pitches, but he's slowing considerably against soft stuff.

Howard slugged .617 against "hard pitches" (fastballs, sinkers, cutters and splitters) in 2008-2009, and has kept on mashing against them since he turned 30 (.589 slugging percentage in 2010-2011). But against "soft" pitches (breaking balls and changeups), the big lefty has seen his slugging percentage dip from .501 in 2008-2009 to .366 in 2010-2011. He once crushed slow pitches no matter where they were thrown, but those hot zones have been reduced to high and in, high and away or right down the middle:

Howard's in-play slugging percentage vs. "soft" stuff, 2008-09

Howard's in-play slugging percentage vs. "soft" stuff, 2010-11

That's a big problem, considering that the mantra for pitchers against Howard is away, away, away:

 Location of "soft" pitches to Howard, 2010-11

As a below-average defender who doesn't have elite plate discipline, Howard needs to post prodigious power numbers to rank among the best at his position. With less pop over the past two years, Howard places a middling eighth out of 18 qualified first basemen in Wins Above Replacement, according to Baseball-Reference. Unless Howard picks up the pace against slow stuff, his decline could be anything but slow.