Five Years for Victorino?

While Cole Hamels deservedly gets press for the potential CC Sabathia-like windfall coming his way following the 2012 season, he's not the only important Phillie eligible soon eligible for free agency. Shane Victorino can shop his services to other clubs after this year, too, though he'd prefer to stay where he is if Philly offers him five years.

A switch-hitter with quality range and a career 81% success rate on the bases, Victorino has plenty going for him. He ranks fifth among MLB center fielders in Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement over the past three years, trailing just Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen, Michael Bourn and Curtis Granderson. And while he might have wished it coincided with his walk season, Victorino is coming off a career year at the plate: His .491 slugging percentage and 129 OPS+ were both personal bests.

For the former Rule V pick to get five years, he'll have to stay healthy and replicate the greatest offensive performance of his career in 2011. And to do that, he'll have to keep ripping breaking pitches.

Victorino's best season with the bat was the result of his killing breaking pitches that previously gave him heartburn. He slugged .322 against curveballs and sliders in 2009-10, nearly 40 points below the major league average. Here's his in-play slugging percentage vs. breaking stuff over that time, compared to the league average:

Victorino's in-play slugging percentage vs. curveballs and sliders, 2009-10

Average in-play slugging percentage vs. curveballs and sliders, 2009-10

In 2011, though? Victorino slugged .529 against curves and sliders. That placed seventh among qualified MLB hitters, between Matt Holliday and Robinson Cano. Victorino struck with deadly force against breaking stuff thrown belt-high:

 Victorino's in-play slugging percentage vs. curveballs and sliders, 2011

While Victorino battered breaking stuff last year and has ranked among the game's best up-the-middle players in recent years, a team giving him five years would be paying for his decline phase (Victorino will be eligible for agency at age 32) and would have to have some concerns about his durability, as he has served DL stints in each of the past two seasons (thumb and hamstring in 2011, oblique in 2010). To get what he wants, Victorino must avoid getting hurt or letting curves and sliders hurt his offensive line.

Rollins Returns to Philly

It was bound to happen. Jimmy Rollins re-upped with the Phillies for three years and $33 million, with an "easily attainable" $11 million option that figures to keep the switch-hitting shortstop, originally acquired in the second round of the 1996 draft, in town through 2015. Rollins entered the offseason saying he wanted five years, but the 33-year-old's bargaining power was limited when it became clear that San Francisco and Detroit weren't serious suitors and Milwaukee decided to settle for Alex Gonzalez. The Phillies, meanwhile, ensure they don't have to turn to Freddy Galvis in 2012 or further gut the farm system to get someone like Alexei Ramirez or Asdrubal Cabrera.

While he no longer possesses the power displayed during his mid-to-late twenties peak, Rollins rebounded from two substandard years at the plate in 2009 and 2010 (a combined 86 OPS+ in 1,119 plate appearances) to post a 101 OPS+ in 625 PA in 2011. League-average offense from a guy who still covers plenty of ground at the diamond's premium defensive position is quite valuable: Rollins was worth 3.7 Wins Above Replacement, which ranked eighth among shortstops.

Rollins' offensive uptick was the product of a higher batting average on balls in play. His BABIP was just .251 from 2009-2010, fourth-lowest among all MLB hitters who got at least 1,000 PA over that period. In 2011, that BABIP improved to .275. Whether the result of better luck or perhaps better health (Rollins was bothered by calf and hamstring injuries for much of 2010), Rollins got more hits on pitches thrown above the letters from both sides of the plate and off the outside corner when swinging left-handed. Check out Rollins' in-play average by pitch location in 2009-2010, compared to 2011:

 Rollins' in-play average by pitch location, 2009-2010

Rollins' in-play average by pitch location, 2011

That improvement on outside pitches thrown from right-handed pitchers was especially key, considering that's where they like to pitch Rollins:

Right-handed pitchers' location to Rollins, 2011

Rollins' legs are a source of concern -- he's not young, and he served a DL stint for a pulled groin this past year on top of the calf and hamstring issues in 2010. But those ailments don't appear to have cut severely into his range (he has been +6 runs better per 150 defensive games than an average SS over the past three years, per Ultimate Zone Rating) or his base running (30 steals and a 79% success rate in 2011).

A decline-phase Rollins is still a pretty decent player, and the win-now Phillies weren't in a position to give the reins to Galvis, sign a mediocre option like Ronny Cedeno or Ryan Theriot or give up what farm talent remains in a trade. He might not be a huge bargain, but re-upping Rollins was the best course of action for Philly.

D-Train a LOOGY in Training

Dontrelle Willis' baseball epitaph appeared written this time last winter. The D-Train won the 2003 Rookie of the Year and averaged nearly three Wins Above Replacement per season with the Marlins, but he imploded upon a trade to Detroit prior to the 2008 season. The 1,022 innings that Willis threw through age 25 (fifth-highest through that age over the past two decades) caught up with him in the form of knee and forearm injuries, and he also dealt with anxiety issues that cost him most of 2009. His control completely abandoned him (119 walks in 123.1 innings from 2008-2010) as he drifted from the Tigers to the Diamondbacks to the Giants. At age 28, it looked like Willis might have thrown his last major league pitch.

The Reds offered Willis a minor league deal prior to 2011, however, and the D-Train resurfaced in Cincy last July. His results in 13 starts were middling -- 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings, 4.4 BB/9 and a low-fours Fielding Independent ERA. But Willis made fellow lefties look absolutely silly, holding them to a .127/.169/.200 line compared to .305/.395/.433 for right-handed hitters.

Dominating lefties is nothing new for Willis, as he managed to get them out even when his LaLoosh act against righties was earning him pink slips. The Phillies have reportedly signed the D-Train to a one-year deal with a base salary under $1 million to pitch in relief, and he could be one of the game's best Left-Handed One Out Guys (LOOGYs) if manager Charlie Manuel uses him to get the platoon advantage.

Since 2008, Willis has held lefties to a .196/.294/.312 batting line in 221 plate appearances. He has pounded the zone with his fastball and slider, throwing 54% of his pitches over the plate:

Willis' pitch location to left-handed hitters, 2008-2011

Lefties have swung through a bunch of those pitches, too. Take a look at left hitters' contact rate by pitch location against Willis, compared to the average lefty-on-lefty matchup:

Left-handed hitters' contact rate by pitch location vs. Willis, 2008-2011

Average contact rate by pitch location for lefty hitters vs. lefty pitchers, 2008-2011

Willis has gotten lefties to whiff 26.2% of the time they have swung since 2008, well above the 23.7% average for LHP vs. LHB over that time frame.

Against righties, though? It's a whole different story. Right-handers have walloped Willis for a .301/.434/.444 line in 711 plate appearances. It's like every righty morphs into Rickey Henderson upon entering the batter's box against the D-Train! While Willis is aggressive against same-handed hitters, he often misses to the arm side with his fastball, changeup and slider versus righties:

Willis' pitch location to right-handed hitters, 2008-2011

Just 46% of his pitches to righties have been thrown within the strike zone since 2008. And when righties aren't taking ball four, they're making a ton of contact:

Right-handed hitters' contact rate by pitch location vs. Willis, 2008-2011Average contact rate by pitch location for righty hitters vs. lefty pitchers, 2008-2011Willis has induced a swing and a miss just 13.8% of the time against righties since 2008, a far cry from the 19.4% average for left-handed pitchers against right-handed hitters.  

A second act as a LOOGY isn't sexy, but it sure beats toiling in Triple-A or retiring. And, as San Francisco's Javier Lopez (signed two a two-year, $8.5 million deal this offseason) showed, it can be a lucrative living. At age 30, the crooked-capped lefty with the high leg kick could get back on track if Manuel plays the matchups right.