Phil Hughes Tinkers With his Curveball

The Yankees' Phil Hughes enjoyed his best start of an injury-marred 2011 season on Sunday, allowing two runs and walks apiece in six innings pitched while striking out five in a win over the Toronto Blue Jays. Hughes, making his second start since serving a DL stint for shoulder inflammation, got six hitters to swing and miss at his fastball (thrown at an average of 91 MPH) after failing to register a whiff with the pitch in his last appearance. The 25-year-old righty made some changes to his mechanics and the grip on his curveball prior to his Sunday start. Here's Ben Shpigel of The New York Times:

Hughes last pitched July 6 against Cleveland, and the 10-day layoff allowed him to throw four bullpen sessions. He used that time to gain comfort with a subtle mechanical tweak — his hips now open more as he finishes his delivery — and a new curveball, one that he turned to out of necessity. Once an outstanding pitch, it had lost bite and depth. He noticed that hitters were tracking the ball out of his hand, and as a result he did not generate as much weak contact or as many as awkward swings as before.

So last week at the suggestion of the pitching coach Larry Rothschild, Hughes abandoned his knuckle grip in favor of a more conventional style, which produces a more acute break, added velocity — 75 to 80 miles per hour — and a spike in confidence.

Hughes' curveball averaged slightly more than 74 MPH prior to his Sunday start, breaking away from right-handed hitters 6.2 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin and dropping 5.1 inches. For comparison, his 2010 curve averaged about 76 MPH, broke away from righties 5.5 inches and dropped 8.6 inches. So, Hughes' breaker had lost some bite and depth. Did the change in curveball grip make a difference on Sunday?

The pitch was effective, as Hughes threw 17 of his 25 curveballs for a strike and batters went a collective 1-for-9 against the breaking ball. There were some differences in terms of velocity and break, though nothing huge: Hughes' curve averaged 75 MPH, breaking away from righty batters 4.5 inches and dropping 4.6 inches. The new grip on the pitch didn't seem to add much velocity or sharp break.

Pitch break frequency of Hughes' curveball on Sunday, July 17Pitch break frequency of Hughes' curveball, 2010

On average, the type of curveball that Hughes displayed last year (with sharp, downward break) tends to fare better than the type of curve that he showed against Toronto on Sunday. Since the beginning of last season, curveballs with the velocity and movement characteristics of Hughes' 2010 curve have a .217/.252/.360 opponent batting line and a 26 percent miss rate. But curves with the kind of velocity and movement that Hughes had on Sunday, with considerably less downward break, have a .258/.287/.408 opponent line and a 22 percent miss rate.

There are many other factors that can influence the effectiveness of a pitch (such as delivery, other pitches in a player's repertoire and sequencing), but hitters generally put better swings on the kind of curveball that Hughes is currently throwing. For Hughes to have long-term success with the pitch, he might want to re-discover the downward bite that his breaker showed last season.

The dulling of Mariano's cutter

It is becoming increasingly apparent that we are finally seeing the aging of Mariano Rivera. The great Yankee closer earned his 23rd save on Saturday, but it took a lot of work. While he struck out two, he brought the tying run to the plate (twice) by giving up two hits. Most significantly, he threw 28 pitches. This is the seventh time in 37 (18.9%) appearances he's thrown 20+ pitches in part, because batters are now able to work Mariano more effectively.

2009 Mariano vs. 2011 Mariano

As broadcasters repeat ad nauseum, Rivera is (primarily) a one pitch pitcher; he throws the cutter.

Here is the Mariano cutter in the first-half of 2009

Look at the consistent placement of Mo's 483 cuttersThrough July 14 of 2009, Mariano faced 119 batters, walked one and struck out 38. Batters hit .178, slugged .280, and had a .465 OPS. He had a 31.9% strikeout rate.

Here is the Mariano cutter in the first-half of 2011

This season, his 406 cutters are drifting more toward the center of the plate and upward, two dangerous places

In the first half of 2011, Mariano faced 106 batters, walked three and struck out 25. Batters hit .214, slugged .252, and had a .488 OPS. He had a 23.6% strikeout rate.

Beyond the slight drift upward of the pitch and the slight drift upward of the stats, there is a slight drift upward in the swing rate (49.5% to 53%), and a slight decrease in the miss rate (17.2% to 15.3%). Beyond that, there is an increase in the play rate 33.5% to 36.3%

2009 Mariano vs. 2011 Mariano against lefties

The difference is even greater versus lefties, take a look.

Here is the Mariano cutter in the first-half of 2009 against lefties

In 2009, lefties hit .167You can see that Mariano primarily worked inside, but he still worked enough on the outside to throw batters off.

Here is the Mariano cutter in the first-half of 2011 against lefties

In 2011, lefties are hitting.224The difference isn't vastly significant, but enough so that you can see why lefties are having more success this season. The pitches that Mariano used to throw on the outside are now being thrown more frequently inside and high.

Mariano will undoubtedly get the 20 saves he now needs to be the all-time saves leader, but he is going to have to work harder and his decreasing save percentage rate (98%, 96%, 87% to 85% this season), will most likely continue.

Cano Versus Halladay

One potential match-up to watch this evening pits Robinson Cano of the New York Yankees versus Roy Halladay of the Philadelphia Phillies.  In the PITCHf/x era, 2008-2011, Cano posted a slash line of .303/.346/.494, good for a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .361.  Cano collects hits through a wide swath of the strike zone.

Robinson Cano, hits, 2008-2011.Cano doesn't hit location as much as he hits movement, or lack thereof:

Robinson Cano, movement on hits, 2008-2011.Balls that pass near the intersection of the major axes indicate that the ball traveled as expected; there was no extra spin to deflect the ball left, right, up or down.

Halladay held Robinson to a .158/.179/.184 slash line and a .166 wOBA in 39 PA during this period.  Roy tends to work him inside:

Robinson Cano vs. Roy Halladay, pitch frequency, 2008-2011.Roy does a decent job of avoiding the middle of the plate.  Most of his pitches are inside or outside, and as we see from above, Cano does not get hits on inside pitches.  Where Halladay really beats, however, is on movement.

Robinson Cano vs. Roy Halladay, pitch movement, 2008-2011.Very few of Roy's pitches come in straight. Almost all of them dip, move in on Cano, or both.  Halladay's mastery of movement and location make Cano and easy target for outs.