Tigers and Twins and Short Fly Balls

At Baseball Musings, I noted the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers remain the only teams without a three-run or better homer in 2011.  The Baseball Analytics heat maps provide a good indication of why.  The Twins rank last in the AL in home runs with 15, and they just don't get very much distance on their fly balls.

Twins fly ball distance, 2011.The Tigers, with 28 home runs, rank 10th in the AL and don't put much sock on the ball either.

Tigers fly ball distance, 2011.Note that the Twins are at least hitting balls in the middle of the plate well.  The Tigers only seem to be getting distance on the edges.

Compare these teams to the Yankees.  They lead the league with 54 homers:

Yankees fly ball distance, 2011.The Yankees light up the strike zone with much brighter greens and even a little yellow.  If you think the New Stadium has something to do with it, the Yankees are actually hitting the ball further on the road this season.

Injuries and age hurt the Twins and Tigers long ball ability this sesaon.  Until the big bats come back or are replaced, the teams need to concentrate on other ways to score runs besides waiting for the three-run homer.

Francisco Liriano's No Hitter

A quick glance at Francisco Liriano's (Minnesota Twins) pitch location heat map from his no-hitter versus the Chicago White Sox. Click here to view the complete no hitter pitch log.

What's Wrong with Liriano?

Francisco Liriano (MIN) turned in a stellar 2010 season, but through five starts in 2011 his ERA stands at 9.13.  His control is poor and he allowed nearly half his 2010 home run total.  The most glaring difference between 2010 and 2011 for Liriano is a drop of velocity on his fastball:

Francisco Liriano, fastball graph, 2010-2011.His velocity dropped about 1.5 MPH from 2010, down to 92 MPH on average.  While batters made contact with his fastball often last season, that is up too as the slower pitch is easier to hit.  Despite the drop, his opposition batting average isn't that much worse, it's the power and walks that are getting to him:

Vs. Fastballs	2010	2011
Batting average	.323	.320
OBP	.388	.435
Slugging average	.462	.520
wOBA	.369	.415

There is a secondary effect as well.  Liriano's change up stayed at about 85 MPH, meaning it looks less different than his fastball this season.  The opposition can hit that pitch better as well.

Vs. Change Ups	2010	2011
Batting average	.241	.294
OBP	.252	.333
Slugging average	.340	.588
wOBA	.256	.385

The change was a great out pitch for Francisco, and now batters are waiting to power it out of the park.