Ryan Doumit's Catch-22

Minnesota Twins signed C(?)/1B/DH/OF Ryan Doumit to a one-year, $3 million deal with possible performance incentives.

Possessing an injury history suggesting he needs to take the field covered in bubble wrap (at least one DL stint each season since 2006, including a fractured ankle in 2011) and a defensive reputation behind the plate earning him the nickname "No-Mitt" (Baseball-Reference's Total Zone says he has been eight runs worse per year than an average catcher), Doumit always seemed destined to end up in the DH league.

Just where he'll play with the Twins is unclear -- the health of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau will likely dictate that -- but Doumit gives the run-starved Twins a decent hitter at a position to be named later. The problem is, the 30-year-old is sort of baseball's version of Yossarian. This is the Catch-22 that led the Pirates to decline Doumit's 2012-13 options for $15.5 million and that the Twins now face: Doumit's bat is only valuable at catcher, but having him catch takes that bat out of the lineup often due to injuries and costs his team runs through his dubious D. At first base, DH or in the outfield corners, he's just another guy.

Over the past three seasons, Doumit has a .263 average, .327 OBP and a .426 slugging percentage. The cumulative line for first basemen over since 2009 is .270/.353/.462. DHs have a .258/.336/.433 triple-slash, left fielders have hit .263/.332/.426 and right fielders .269/.343/.443. The switch-hitter's upside, if you accept the idea that he should only be a "break glass in case of emergency" backstop, is that of an average DH. And even there, he's best off in a platoon that limits his exposure to lefties.

From the left side of the batter's box, Doumit has a career .275/.336/.461 line in a little over 1,600 plate appearances. He has plenty of pull-side power, as his hit chart over the past three years shows:

Doumit's hit chart vs. right-handed pitching, 2009-2011

In about 500 PAs as a righty hitter, he doesn't have a drastically different average (.262) or OBP (.329) but he has slugged just .389. He hits more ground balls against lefty pitching (48 percent over the past three years, compared to 40 percent versus righty pitching), often chopping the ball to the third baseman or shortstop:

Doumit's hit chart vs. left-handed pitching, 2009-2011

It's hard to criticize the Twins for adding a competent batter at a low base salary after a 2011 season in which they placed 25th in run-scoring and gave significant ABs to the likes of Rene Rivera, Drew Butera, Jason Repko and Rene Tosoni as injuries piled up. But Doumit is a player whose value is higher in theory (switch-hitting catcher who dabbles at other corner spots) than in practice (injury-prone, DH-worthy defender whose power stroke comes from one side of the dish). The signing could work out, but you don't have to walk around with crab apples in your cheeks to understand why it might turn sour.

Spoiled M&Ms

As the Twins play out the string, looking to end an eight-game losing streak and avoid the ignominy of a 100-loss season, the M&M boys watch helplessly from the dugout.

Justin Morneau has endured a nightmare year in which he continued to feel the effects of a concussion suffered in 2010 while also having surgery to repair a herniated disc in his neck. He continued his game of human Operation today by having procedures to remove a cyst from his left knee and a bone spur from his right foot. Joe Mauer, meanwhile, missed time with leg weakness and a stiff neck and was recently shut down due to pneumonia. Altogether, Morneau (-0.3 WAR) and Mauer (1.7 WAR) made $37 million while combining for 1.4 Wins Above Replacement. Last year, they teamed up for 10.7 WAR.

Morneau never looked healthy or comfortable at the plate in 2011, batting .227/.285/.333 and hitting just four home runs in 288 plate appearances. His strike-zone judgment took a tumble, with his chase rate climbing from 30 percent to 34 percent, and the fly balls that he hit were downright tame. Morneau's average fly ball distance fell from 315 feet in 2010 to just 292 feet in 2011. For comparison, Alexi Casilla's average fly ball distance this season is 296 feet.

With an ailing Morneau unable to drive the ball, his slugging sweet spot low and inside all but disappeared:

Morneau's in-play slugging percentage by pitch location, 2010

Morneau's in-play slugging percentage by pitch location, 2011Mauer's offensive malaise wasn't nearly as severe -- his .287/.360/.368 slash in 333 PA was basically league-average production in a year in which run-scoring dipped yet again. But even so, his power declined markedly for the second straight season. Mauer mashed 28 homers and slugged .587 in 2009, and followed that up with a campaign that more closely resembled his previous work (nine HR, .469 slugging percentage). This year, he went deep only three times. Not surprisingly, his average fly ball distance is down, too:

2009: 330 feet

2010: 315 feet

2011: 306 feet

Mauer's biggest problem this season came against breaking stuff. He chased more curveballs and sliders in 2011, and managed just two extra-base knocks:

Mauer Vs. Curveballs and Sliders

2009: 20.1 Chase Pct., .330 Slugging Pct.

2010: 23.8 Chase Pct., .377 Slugging Pct.

2011: 27.7 Chase Pct., .247 Slugging Pct.

2009-2011 MLB Avg for non-pitchers: 30.2 Chase Pct., .361 Slugging Pct.

Mauer hit a ground ball 71 percent of the time that he put a curveball or slider in play, the fifth-highest rate among MLB batters. That goes a long way toward explaining why his overall ground ball rate spiked from under 50 percent in 2009-2010 to over 56 percent. If he's a catcher who dabbles at DH and first base, his bat is still quite valuable. If he's mostly or entirely a 1B/DH, then the Twins are in trouble.

With Morneau owed $28 million combined in 2012-13 and Mauer making $23 million annually through 2018, the hopes of the franchise rest upon their achy backs. The M&M boys need to get healthy. Otherwise, the next decade of Twins baseball could melt right in Bill Smith's hands.

Mauer's Off-Speed Judgment Off

Joe Mauer of the Minnesota Twins lost his ability to hit sliders and curve balls decently in 2011.  From 2008-2010 Joe hit .275/.327/.349 on those pitches combined.  They obviously give him trouble, but if that's the worst a batter is going to hit on a pitch or pitches, he's probably doing okay. In 2011, Mauer hits .178/.186/.191 on those two pitches.  What happened?

Even though Joe didn't hit all that well on those pitches, he showed decent strike zone judgment on them.  From 2008-2010, he only took 28.5% of them for strikes, and chased 20.9% out of the strike zone.  You can see that in his swing rate on those pitches:

Joe Mauer, swing rate on sliders and curve balls, 2008-2010.In 2011, 42.5% of those pitches go for called strikes, and he's chasing 30.3% out of the zone.  Again, you can see the difference in his swing rate heat map.

Joe Mauer, swing rate on sliders and curve balls, 2011.He's clearly taking pitches at which he should be swinging, and trying to hit too many pitches off the corners and edges.  He putting a higher proportion of these pitches in play, 60.2% versus 50.2% in the three previous seasons, but because he's making contact on pitches outside the strike zone, those balls in play are turning into outs, as he has a meager .218  BABIP.

Joe Mauer's batting eye made him an MVP candidate.  As far as these two pitches are concerned, he lost that eye this season, and it's responsible for a large portion of his fall off.