Josh Hamilton: Angelic Power, Devilish Approach

Josh Hamilton, the Angels' new $125 million man, can look like Reggie Jackson and Reggie Abercrombie -- in the same at-bat. Hamilton boasts the 16th-best OPS+ among major league hitters since the beginning of the 2007 season, but he has reached such heights in spite of a plate approach that earns players lacking his prodigious power a one-way ticket to the Independent Leagues. When Hamilton swings at a strike, he's in a class all his own. But when he chases? Shield your eyes, Angels fans.

Here's a look at Hamilton's 2012 slugging percentage when swinging at a pitch thrown in the strike zone. In short, pitchers are doomed when he takes a cut at an in-zone offering:

Hamilton's slugging percentage when swinging at in-zone pitches, 2012

Hamilton had the best slugging percentage in the game when swinging at an in-zone pitch, and it wasn't even close. He bested runner-up and new teammate Mike Trout by over 100 points:

Highest slugging percentage when swinging at in-zone pitches, 2012

Batter	Slugging Pct.
Josh Hamilton	.839
Mike Trout	.733
Ryan Braun	.731
Chris Davis	.723
Miguel Cabrera	.720
Jay Bruce	.712
Pedro Alvarez	.709
Mark Trumbo	.706
Robinson Cano	.699
Adrian Beltre	.697
MLB Avg. for qualified hitters	.544

So, Hamilton is the game's preeminent slugger when he takes a cut at a hittable pitch. Unfortunately, he also chases more pitches outside of the strike zone (42.5%) than any other qualified hitter. Hamilton turns into a scrub when he goes after those junk pitches:

Hamilton's slugging percentage when swinging at out-of-zone pitches, 2012

Hamilton slugged .280 when swinging at a pitch thrown out of the zone, about 20 points below the MLB average for qualified hitters and lower than L.A.'s slap-and-dash shortstop Erick Aybar (.281). Why is Hamilton so ineffective against out-of-zone pitches? It's because the pitches he chases aren't just off the plate -- they're in the next zip code.

Last year, Hamilton swung at more "non-competitive" pitches than any other hitter in the game. Non-competitive pitches are those thrown at least 18 inches away from the center of the strike zone. These aren't pitches that just miss the corners. Rather, they're guaranteed to be called balls by big blue and are next to impossible to make hard contact against if you're crazy enough to swing at them. Hamilton chased 17 more non-competitive pitches than his closest hacking competitor, Alfonso Soriano:

Most swings against non-competitive pitches, 2012

Batter	Swings vs. non-competitive pitches
Josh Hamilton	118
Alfonso Soriano	101
Adam Jones	84
Mike Moustakas	79
Starlin Castro	77
Danny Espinosa	75
Ryan Braun	74
Dayan Viciedo	66
Mark Trumbo	66
Miguel Cabrera	63

When Hamilton swung at a non-competitive pitch, he went 2-for-46 with 42 strikeouts.

With such an aggressive approach, Hamilton has struck out nearly two-and-a-half times as often as he has walked during his career. His offensive success in spite of his hacking is rare. According to Fangraphs, the only Expansion-Era hitters who managed to be at least 35% above the league average offensively through their age-31 seasons while striking out twice as often as they walked are Frank Howard, Willie Stargell, Dave Parker, Jose Canseco, Ryan Howard, and Hamilton. The common trait among these guys? Mammoth, awe-inspiring power. So long as Hamilton keeps killing strikes, he should produce. But if injuries cut into his pop and he keeps lunging at pitches thrown two feet off the plate, years four and five of this deal could get ugly.

Trout, Cabrera Dangerous To All Fields

When it comes to fielding, base running and positional value, Mike Trout easily trumps fellow AL MVP contender Miguel Cabrera. But in the batter's box, L.A.'s fleet-footed center fielder and Detroit's burly third baseman bear a striking resemblance. Trout and Cabrera are arguably the game's most well-rounded sluggers, lacing extra-base hits to all fields.

Check out Trout's hit chart during the 2012 season. While he showed serious pop to the pull side, Trout also racked up plenty of doubles, triples and homers to center and right field:

            Trout's spray chart

Similarly, Cabrera crushed pitchers in every direction:

                  Cabrera's spray chart

Trout and Cabrera had a nearly identical distribution of pitches put in play. Trout pulled the ball about 40% of the time, went up the middle 26% and punched pitches to the opposite field 34%. Cabrera pulled the ball 39%, hit it to center 27% and went oppo 34%. Trout and Cabrera were prodigious pull hitters, but they were also terrifying to center and right field.

Trout and Cabrera's slugging percentage by side of field

Batter	Slugging Pct. to Pull Side	Slugging Pct. to Center Field	Slugging Pct. to Opposite Field
Trout	.852	.811	.514
Cabrera	.757	.672	.738
Avg. for Right-Handed Batter	.588	.475	.464

Why I would vote for Miguel Cabrera for MVP

In today’s New York Times, Nate Silver makes a persuasive statistical analysis as to why Mike Trout is more deserving of the AL MVP over Miguel Cabrera. The great Silver, who is on my personal/professional Mt. Rushmore next to Bill James and Sean Forman, slices, dices and even juliennes the numbers and makes a convincing argument as to how Trout’s numbers are clearly, albeit slightly, better versus Cabrera.

However, while I do agree that statistically Trout is the “all-around player of the year,” I still believe Cabrera was the “most valuable,” and here’s why. Silver compares Cabrera versus Trout, I would prefer to compare Cabrera and his Tigers versus the league in the highly pressured pennant race from September 1 forward.

On the morning of September 1, the Tigers had a record of 70-61 and Trout’s Angels had a record of 70-62, virtually the same and each team was about the same out of the AL Wild Card race. From that point on, the Tigers record was 18-13 and the Angels an even better 19-11. But in this drive to the postseason, who was the team’s MVP?

When it counted in September, Mike Trout hit .289 with five homers and nine RBI striking out 35 times in 135 plate appearances while Miguel Cabrera hit .333 with 11 homers and 30 RBI and 25 whiffs in 129 plate appearances.

Expand it by a month and you will find that from August 1 to October 3, Trout hit .287 with 12 homers and 28 RBI, with 49 runs scored and 18 steals with 67 whiffs, while Cabrera hit .344 with 19 homers and 54 RBI, with 42 runs scored and no steals but striking out just 39 times.

Cabrera had an OBP of .411, slugged .670, resulting in a 1.081 OPS

I will grant that Nate is right on everything he wrote (and I trust his analysis more than mine), but when it comes to the AL MVP, Miguel Cabrera is his Heidi Heitkamp.