B. Chuck: The Offensive Red Sox Season

With all the talk about the effect that John Farrell's return to the Red Sox would have on the Boston pitching staff, so far it's been highly over-rated.

The Sox are seventh in the league with a team ERA of 3.84. Their starters are fourth in the league with a 3.79 ERA and their bullpen is 11th in the AL with a 3.94 ERA.

The key to the success of the Red Sox this season have been their bats and credit for that certainly needs to go to hitting coach Gregg Colbrunn and his assistant, Victor Rodriguez (and very high marks to GM Ben Cherington who has put together a terrific assortment of "chemists").

Serious Offense

• The Red Sox lead the majors 363 runs scored.
• They are tied with the Orioles with 155 doubles, the most in the majors.
• They are tied with the Rays and Indians with 80 homers, the sixth most in the majors.
• They are second to the A's, 277 to 273 walks.
• They are second to the Padres, 61 to 57 steals.
• They are second to the Cards, 205 to 184 hits with runners in scoring position.
• They are tied for second in the AL with the A's with bases loaded hits, but lead the majors with 66 bases loaded RBI.
• The Sox are tied with the Tigers for the league lead with a .285 June batting average.
• They lead the AL 156 June hits, 13 more than the A's who are in second place.
• They lead the AL with 23 June homers
• They lead the AL with 88 RBI, 28 more than the Jays who are second with 60 ribbies.

The Individual Plusses

One of the other keys to the Red Sox offensive success is the variety of players who have been hot at different times throughout the season.

• For example, while the Sox and the Phillies only have four homers each from the number three slot in the batting order, the fewest in baseball, the Sox have Dustin Pedroia who's hitting .319, the best of any #3 in the AL not named Miguel Cabrera.
• And they have David Ortiz who has driven home 14 runs in June, the most in the AL, despite a .220 batting average.
• Jacoby Ellsbury, in his walk year, has been running. He's tied with Everth Cabrera for the MLB lead with 31 steals and tied with Mike Trout for the AL lead in triples with six.
• Mike Napoli has been an RBI machine providing clutch hits, particularly in the early going.
• Don't forget the great fielding Jose Iglesias who has a 17-game hitting streak, the longest for any rookie this season, and is hitting .438 in 99 PA this season.
• Daniel Nava is one of the great "who's thats?" of this season, but is deserving of some AL All-Star write-in votes. Nava is hitting .288 on the season and his 44 RBI are third on the team to Ortiz' and Napoli's 49, but 24 of the RBI have come from the 7th inning on and Nava leads the majors in that category. His 38 RBI as an outfielder puts him eight among all MLB outfielders. And, his .378 OBP ranks 10th among all outfielders (he has a .383 OBP overall).
• Mike Carp has hit eight homers in 105 AB and is slugging .686 to go with his .324 BA.
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia is hitting .271 overall and improving behind the plate and the switch-hitter is hitting .303 as a lefty.

So, through an assortment of pieces the Red Sox have put together three strong first months of the season.

But is that enough to get them through the year?

Tomorrow, I look at the minuses of the Boston ball club, starting with the starting pitching.

The Red Sox Regression

Take a look at the AL East standings on April 19 and the Red Sox results since.

On April 19:

April 19 - May 15, 2013:

Nobody could have expected the Sox to have maintained their torrid start, so a regression was expected and occurred.

Let's examine some reasons for the Sox return to Earth 

• The Red Sox team ERA through April 19 was 2.69; since, 4.82.
• Starters ERA through April 19 was 2.23; since, 4.67.
• Relievers ERA through April 19 was 3.43; since, 5.16. 

Take a look at some individual differences

The Sox are heavily reliant upon their top three starters in their rotation and they have regressed:

• Up to April 19, Clay Buchholz had a 0.41 ERA, after, a still very good, 2.45 
• Up to April 19, Jon Lester had a 1.73 ERA, after a fair, 3.71 
• Up to April 19, Ryan Dempster had a 2.65 ERA, after, a very shaky, 4.35

The Bullpen

Their bullpen has been hit with a season-ending injury to Joel Hanrahan and a DL-inducing injury to Andrew Bailey.

However:

• Up to April 19, Junichi Tazawa had a 1.12 ERA, after, a not very good, 5.40 
• Up to April 19, Koji Uehara had a 0.00 ERA, after, a not very good, 4.50

Let's move to the offense, which has improved

• Up to April 19, the team was hitting .257, with an OBP of .333, and slugging .411. 
• Since April 19, the team is hitting .270, with an OBP of .345, and slugging .459.

The individual batting averages have been a mixed bag before and after April 19

• The always hard playing Dustin Pedroia was hitting .310 up to April 19 and .355 since then. 
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia has also improved hitting .231 up to April 19 and .286 since then. 
• Stephen Drew has found his stroke jumping from .087 to .278. 
• Daniel Nava has fallen going from .333 up to April 19 and .265 since then. 
• Similarly, Shane Victorino has gone from .322 up to April 19 and .269 since then. 
• Mike Napoli has remained consistent .262/.261. 
• However, Will Middlebrooks, Jonny Gomes and David Ross still are not hitting well.

So, where's the rub?

• Up to April 19, the team was hitting .305 with runners in scoring position.
• Since April 19, the team is hitting .255 w/RISP.

• With runners in scoring position both Dustin Pedroia and Daniel Nava have been consistently good with numbers over .300 before and after April 19. 
•  Since April 19, Stephen Drew has gone from .000 to .368 w/RISP and Jonny Gomes has gone from .000 to .286. 
•  But it has hurt that the red-hot Mike Napoli has dropped from .333 to .258 since April 19. 
• Jacoby Ellsbury has gone from .400 to .118 since April 19. 
• And Saltalamacchia and Middlebrooks have both been ineffective all season long with runners in scoring position.

Perhaps you are wondering why I chose April 19th as my cutoff date

You see, on April 20 David Ortiz made his season's debut.

And while you certainly can't complain about Big Papi's .329 average with five homers and 20 RBI or his .321 average w/RISP, you do have to wonder if the team let down after his return or it was simply an expected regression to the mean.

We'll learn a ot more about this team over the next 25 games.

The Mike Napoli RBI Machine

Mike Napoli may have found a silver lining to the offseason hip cloud he experienced.

Think about this: Napoli had agreed to three-year $39 million contract with the Red Sox. Boston fans waited and waited for the deal to become official. Then came the news in December that catcher/first baseman Napoli was suffering from avascular necrosis, a degenerative bone disease that was doing a number on his hips. Both camps regrouped and after much negotiations, now just first baseman Napoli ended up with a one-year deal worth $5 million.

Today, 19 games into this season, Napoli's hips are behaving and he leads the majors with 25 RBI. The team record for April is 25 held by Manny Ramirez who did his damage in 23 games in 2003.

Napoli is hitting .278 and slugging .570. In 10 games at home, he's hitting .306 and slugging .611 with five doubles, two home runs, and 12 RBI. At Fenway, he's hitting .389 with runners on base and has gone 5-for-10 with runners in scoring position.

This is what .611 slugging looks like

Napoli is showing tremendous horizontal coverage of the strike zone but the pitcher who attempts to get a pitch by Napoli low in the zone is simply punished.

That red area you see on the heat map above reflects a .400 batting average and an .875 slugging percentage, all four of his homers, and 17 RBI.

Look how effective Napoli has been when he's come to the plate with runners on base

• BR = Base runners
• BRS - Base runners scored

	Base Runners
Year	BR	BRS	BRS%
2010	326	42	13%
2012	283	33	12%
2011	268	48	18%
2009	283	36	13%
2007	183	24	13%
2006	200	26	13%
2008	175	31	18%
2013	78	21	27%
8 Yrs	1796	261	15%
MLB Average			15%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/23/2013. 

• As you can see, Napoli is driving in baserunners at an amazing rate with productivity approaching that of some full seasons. 

All of this with the right-hand hitting Napoli so far looking miserable against lefties.

Napoli is lifetime .271 against lefties and .255 hitter versus righties. This season, he's hitting .188 against lefties and .302 against righties.

Whiffs are still an issue

There is still some reality that could be an issue when Napoli's .367 BAbip stabilizes: Napoli has struck out 26 times good for sixth in the majors with Rickie Weeks and if you need some perspecitve, Adam Dunn, the current model of hitting inefficiency, has whiffed 27 times.

However, we wait and watch Napoli drive runners home and possibly turn a cloud's silver lining into pure gold.